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Ask Siri whether we are in a technology bubble, and all Apple's silky-voiced digital assistant could say is "interesting question."
And indeed it is.
The US equity market's increasingly punchy valuations
and rise to a new record high on Thursday have caused a lot of hand-wringing.
But strip out tech and things do look less frothy.
The S&P 500 has gained nearly 8% this year but tech shares have jumped almost 20%.
Strip out that, and the US equity benchmark is up just 1.4%.
If we zoom out, it becomes clear there is a broad rally in so-called "growth" stocks.
The performance of S&P 500 growth shares relative to value stocks is just 1 percentage point of being the greatest since the dot-com bubble in 2000.
But technology is the primary driver, especially the FAANGtastic Five.
The shares of Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Netflix have all gained over 30% this year.
And Google is up 24%.
Their total market capitalization now stands at a whopping 2.4 trillion dollars.
That makes them bigger than the entire French CAC-40 Index or Germany's DAX.
Nearly as large as the entire FTSE 100.
The question is whether investors are getting sucked into the market's biggest momentum play,
pushing up valuations to bubbly levels.
And there are some worrying signs of this.
Hedge funds are tilting heavily towards tech.
Facebook, Amazon and Google are the biggest positions in most funds tracked by Goldman Sachs.
And if inflows into tech-focused mutual funds maintain the same pace,
then this will be the strongest year in 50 years according to Bank of America.
Meanwhile, Citi's Global Economic Surprise Index,
which measures how often data come out better or worse than expected,
has slumped to the lowest since November,
and that should give investors who have piled into equities some pause for thought.
Nonetheless, it's probably too soon to call time on the tech-powered rally.
While the Nasdaq Internet Index is trading at 34 times its forward looking earnings,
the big S&P 500 tech gauge is trading at a more reasonable 18 times.
And there is little on the horizon to dent the growth of the FAANGs.
But at some point the momentum will reverse.
As BAML said in a recent note,
there are nascent signs we're in the very early stages of an overshoot.
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Tech electrifies US market rally | Short View

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missnerdypants 2017 年 6 月 1 日 に公開

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