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  • I want you to consider this bet. Here’s ten dollars. This could be yours if I flip

  • this coin in the air, you guys call it in the air. If youre right I give you the

  • ten dollars. If youre wrong you give me ten dollars. I saw that coming. That’s not

  • a good bet for me. I guess in principle I don’t agree with the idea of betting. Okay, okay.

  • But what if we just use this as like an allegory for life. You know, it’s not really about

  • money and betting on a coin, it’s more about our approach to risk. Okay, and my approach

  • to risk is obviously a lot less than yours. You wouldn’t do this bet? No, no. No, I

  • don’t have ten bucks. My gut says don’t bet. Why is that? Because at the moment I

  • have ten dollars and later I might not. So people are passing up the opportunity to win

  • ten dollars of my money. But it kind of makes sense because they have to risk ten dollars

  • of their money and it’s a 50/50 chance, so really the bet has zero value. What if

  • I sweeten the deal? What if I put up twelve dollars to your ten? You only stand to lose

  • ten. You stand to gain twelve. How’s that sound? I wouldn’t. I still wouldn’t bet.

  • I feel like I’m better off just leaving it as it is. I’ll offer you 15 dollars.

  • You only have to put up 10. I’m putting up 15. No. I’m offering you an extra five

  • dollars. Why not? I’m not giving my 10 dollars away. What about 20? That’s as high as I’m

  • going today. Twenty dollars that is the top. It’s two to one. I just don’t like taking

  • that much risk. You don’t like risking ten bucks? Sure. I’m valuing my 10 dollars,

  • I am. But why don’t you value my 20 dollars which youve got a 50 percent chance of right

  • here if you accept the bet. I don’t know. I can’t tell you. It’s not like a, I don’t

  • know what the logical reason is for why I want that. I don’t know. I can’t be, I

  • just feel it’s not right. Now this does’t make sense. I’ve offered people up to 20

  • dollars and theyre still refusing to take the bet. Well the bet is objectively in their

  • favor. I mean a 50% of winning 20 plus a 50% chance of losing 10 still gives the bet an

  • overall value of 5 dollars. Why is it that you won’t go for this bet? I don’t know.

  • Because I don’t want to lose 10 dollars just because of that easily. I know but you

  • could win twenty dollars. Think about the gain. Well, I don’t know. I’m thinking

  • more about what I lose than what I win. I think. I think that’s exactly the point.

  • Because we feel losses more than we feel gains. There’s an asymmetry in the way people perceive

  • gains and losses. Losses are felt much more intensely. In fact psychology most people

  • weight a loss around twice as heavily as a gain. But this varies from person to person.

  • What if I go to 30 dollars? I said, even if you had 50 I would still feel the same way.

  • Fifty dollars to 10 dollars that would be a reasonable. That’s when you would say

  • yes? Possibly, yes. Youre gonna have to give me like a hundred. But I lose ten. This

  • is known as loss aversion. To avoid risking a loss, people will pass up even very favorable

  • bets. But is there a way to overcome our oversensitivity to losses? Let me ask you this. What if I

  • offered to do this ten times in a row? Same deal, 20 dollars for your ten, flipping this

  • coin? But then I would be losing 10 dollars each time wouldn’t I? You might be, you’d

  • be risking 10 dollars each time, but you know that this is 50/50 and you know that I’m

  • giving you ten chances. Is that a better deal, to do it repeatedly? I don’t think so. What

  • about a hundred times? I don’t think so. It doesn’t get better? No. If we played

  • enough and I had enough of you know of a stake of 10 dollars then eventually yes I would

  • make more money yes. So why does repeating the same bet change it? I don’t think there’s

  • a rational thought behind it, it’s just a feeling that one gets when presented with

  • the opportunity. I don’t know. I think there is a rational reason behind it. Is it? Yeah.

  • Because the coin is going to be 50/50. You don’t know on one toss, youre only going

  • to get one outcome. But in a hundred tosses, you know that it’s going to be somewhere

  • between like 45 and 55 times it’s going to go your way, 45 to 55 times it’s going

  • to go my way. Right? The point is, every time it goes your way, you win twice as much as

  • you lose when it goes my way. So the point is, doing it a hundred times youre basically

  • guaranteed to win money. More chances. No no, it’s not more chances of winning, it

  • is you are guaranteed to win money. In fact, the expected value of a hundred of these bets

  • is a win of 500 dollars. And there’s only a one in 2300 chance of losing any money at

  • all. So even if you weight losses twice as much as gains, a hundred bets is indisputably

  • favorable. So here’s the thing, how do you accept a hundred of these bets if you won’t

  • first accept one of those bets? This experiment is not about gambling. It’s not to encourage

  • you to go to the casino where the odds are definitely stacked against you. Instead, it

  • is a metaphor for all the little risks and opportunities that come our way in our lives.

  • I mean if you view each one as an independent event, you will often say no to even very

  • good bets because youre afraid of the loss. So if instead you can see each little bet

  • as one of a series of bets, then you realize that if you take that bet every time you may

  • win and you may lose, but overall on the aggregate, you will come out ahead. Heads. Heads it is.

  • He’s just won himself 12 bucks. Tails. The ten bucks is your sir. Heads. Thank you very

  • much. The man has won 20 bucks. See, it pays to take the risk. Yay! Yes! This is unbelievable.

  • My stroke of luck today has been terrible. Every has won off me so far. Who’s funding

  • you? I’m funding myself. That’s honestly my money. Really? Yeah. This video is in fact

  • a bit of a risk for me. Because I’m giving out all this money and it’s only going to

  • make money on YouTube if like half a million people see it. So if you like this video,

  • then you should share it with your friends so that this actually turns out to be a positive

  • bet for me. Okay I’ll do that. Yeah. Share it with your friends. It’s Veritasium. That’s

  • the name of the website. Veritasium. So would you take this one-off bet? Let me know in

  • the comments below and tell me know how much money I would have to put up for you to risk

  • your ten dollars. Now this video was inspired by the book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel

  • Kahneman which I’ve recommended before because it’s awesome and it also inspired me to

  • make these cool videos so check them out if you haven’t already. But since I’ve recommended

  • this book before I’m going to recommend something different today. My friend Phil

  • Plait’s book Bad Astronomy which is all about misconceptions and misuses of astronomy

  • from astrology through to the moon landing hoaxes. It is an awesome book so you should

  • definitely check it out and in fact you can download it for free by going to audible.com/Veritasium.

  • Or you can pick any other book of your choosing for a one month free trial. Audible is a great

  • audiobook website with over 150,000 titles in all areas of literature including fiction,

  • nonfiction and periodicals. So I really want to thank audible for supporting me and I want

  • to thank you for watching.

I want you to consider this bet. Here’s ten dollars. This could be yours if I flip

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