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  • And here we go again.

  • Stop this if you feel like you've heard this one before,

  • but sterling is feeling the heat

  • as momentum for a fresh leg lower appears to be building.

  • The currency was, of course, slammed by the result of the UK's EU referendum in June.

  • After some underwhelming mini recoveries it's slumped again last week

  • as the Bank of England unleashed its latest package of stimulus.

  • This week, you guessed it, it's taking a new blow,

  • sinking back under $1.30 to the dollar.

  • Normally, traders and investors balk at bets that are too obvious,

  • but this doesn't seem to be the case this time.

  • Pushing this along, the Fed is expected to raise rates again as soon as December,

  • maybe even sooner,

  • while the Bank of England is not expected to raise rates for some 70 months.

  • That makes it just a no-brainer to sell the pound.

  • Many punters were already doing just that.

  • Data drawing on activity in the future's market

  • shows that bets against sterling were already at record levels in the week to last Tuesday.

  • But, currency hedge funds more broadly did not appear to be committed.

  • Their returns have been under pressure for most of this year

  • and they're still under pressure now,

  • suggesting that some are still sitting back, sharpening their claws and waiting for a new opportunity to pounce.

  • And there seems no reason to pull back from their assessments

  • that the pounds in line could fall the mid-$1.20s against the dollar and possibly as low as $1.10 through next year.

  • There could be some excessive post-referendum pessimism at play here,

  • but no influential analysts or investors have presented a case for buying since... well, June 22.

  • This may of course prove to be part of the solution by helping exports,

  • something the BOE has alluded to

  • but new trade figures show that imports remain much larger,

  • and in the month of June they grew much more than exports.

  • The price tag will keep growing on that unless the trade mix alters fast.

And here we go again.

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スターリング:バーストの下にモメンタムが構築されています|ショートビュー (Sterling: momentum builds for burst lower | Short View)

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    Tim に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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