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What was the cause
of the Great Depression
that started in 1929?
That was a long time ago.
So what's this have to do with you?
Well, no matter what
you're going to do,
you're going to be working
with money.
And it's important
for you to understand
how money works
and how it could stop working.
The lesson you're about to learn
applies to all currencies at all times.
Despite persistent myths,
the Great Depression was not
caused by the stock market crash
or by a failure of markets.
It was caused by a failure
of the Federal Reserve System,
the so-called "lender of last resort."
Created by the U.S. government
in 1913,
the Federal Reserve System
is supposed to prevent
booms and busts
in the overall economy
by providing a sound currency.
In the 1930s they failed in this job.
They did not provide enough
liquidity to banks,
the raw material banks need
to carry on their business.
Managing liquidity correctly
keeps the buying power
of money stable
and keeps banks
from running out of cash.
Imagine if you couldn't
get your money
when you needed it
and the problems that would cause.
I went on this date last Saturday.
Are you serious?
The guy was really cute.
Hi, I’m Carra Cheslin and, like you,
my friends and I would like the world
to be better.
It really bothers us
that when we try to solve a problem,
sometimes the solution
causes even more problems.
Wait guys if we’re gonna
catch the movie
we should probably get going.
It starts in like fifteen minutes.
Oh yeah sure.
Can I just run in and
get some money? I'll be right back.
Yeah. Hurry up.
What? That doesn’t make any sense.
Grandma just gave me
a check last week.
Okay, don’t panic. Try again.
This is gonna take longer
than I thought,
the machine is like not making sense.
Here, lemme see.
Okay.
Has this ever happened to you?
Well, once it happened
to millions of people
and it wasn’t just some
little computer glitch.
It was called the Great Depression…
and well you know about that.
Did you do your pin right?
Millions of people put their money-
their hard earned
savings into the bank.
So imagine the panic that they have
when they tried to withdraw
some of their life savings
and the bank refused them!
What?
And imagine that it happened
not only to you,
but to people all over?
Sound farfetched?
Well, it really happened in the 1930s.
Millions of people were left
with just the money
they had left in their wallets.
But why did all those bank
vaults go empty
and where did all the money go?
So...
what caused the Great Depression?
I have to think. Give me a sec.
I’m not really that sure.
It might have been World War I.
Just the lack of jobs.
It was the stock market crash.
Instability of some sort. Right?
See…no one even mentions
the absence of cash,
which caused a national loss of faith
in our monetary system.
That’s what caused
the Great Depression.
And it didn’t just affect adults.
Did you know that at the height
of the Great Depression,
there were a quarter
of a million teenagers
living on the roads, by themselves,
in America,
and tens of thousands
of kids with their families?
I had no idea. Can you imagine?
Their fathers lost their jobs –
they’d been evicted from their homes.
Even their schools—
thousands of them--
went bankrupt and closed their doors.
How could this
have happened in our country?
Our economic system
hadn’t changed,
so what was it?
Wall Street,
the New York Stock Exchange.
Since it’s kind of
the center of capitalism,
I thought I ought to
come here myself
and see what it’s all about.
Wow! It’s pretty crazy down there….
all the hectic activity.
But now that I’m here,
I see that it’s just an open market
with buyers and sellers -
based on supply and demand -
to the tune of 2 billion shares a day.
Most of us know what happened
here in 1929.
The stock market crashed.
I’ve heard others blame it
on corruption or income inequality,
or even on the
capitalist system itself.
What happened was,
more people wanted to sell
than wanted to buy,
so prices dropped… big time.
But while there are many things
that contributed to
the Great Depression,
there’s another less dramatic,
but just as important reason
that has kind of fallen
through the cracks.
Economists know about it,
but most people don’t.
It has more to do with money
than it does with stocks.
Not far from the stock exchange,
is this building: 79 Delancey Street.
This building doesn’t look
like much now,
but then it’s been through
some rough times.
You see, this is the building
where the depression
actually started -
not Wall Street.
Most people think that the economy
was booming right up to the crash;
but it wasn’t.
Business had, in fact,
begun to turn down in mid-1929.
The crash made the recession worse.
And then came
a series of bank failures
in the South and Midwest.
But the recession
only became a really serious crisis,
when these failures
spread to New York,
and in particular to this building,
then the headquarters
of the Bank of United States.
The bank’s customers
had heard lots of rumors.
They panicked.
They tried to withdraw
all of their deposits in cash at once--
and that’s what a run on the bank is.
What would you do
if you went to the bank to withdraw
all your hard earned savings,
and the bank didn’t
have your money?
I don’t trust banks
because of that reason.
I’d be scared to death.
I’d be angry.
I’d be frustrated.
I’d be callin’ my lawyer.
That happened to my parents
and they had to do manual labor
for years.
If banks are gonna
lose your money,
you might as well just
make your own.
Why not make your own?
The ten dollar Carra Reserve note…
Nice, huh?
But why will everybody
take this dollar,
and not my money?
They’re both only paper, after all.
And, what exactly
is money anyways?
And what I came up with is this.
it all comes down to trust.
You see, on my money it says,
“In Carra We Trust.”
The people in my house
know that my word has value.
And it’s the same
with the world’s national currencies:
they only have value
because their governments
say they have value,
and in the case of the U.S. dollar,
at least,
most people on earth have faith
that our government and economy,
and therefore the dollar,
will continue to be strong.
But if something happens
to break that faith and trust,
the economy can crumble
and people become poor.
And that’s what happened
in the Great Depression.
So where did all that cash go?
Well, first off,
you might think that when you take
some cash into a bank
to deposit it,
that the bank takes your money
and sticks it into a vault somewhere
until you need it again.
But that’s not how it happens.
Hi. I’d like to make a withdrawal.
The bank uses our money-
they’re in business to do that.
They take a large part
of what we put in
and then lend it out to other people.
All right. I think we can do
a loan for about $600,000.
That’s great. Thank you.
The bank also invests in things
like money market accounts,
real estate, bonds, and mutual funds.
Our money is what
makes them money.
Thank you.
Of course they have to keep
some money on hand.
So that when I stop by
on my way to buy something
they can give me my cash.
But still, if all the bank’s customers
tried to withdraw
all their savings at once,
the bank just wouldn’t have enough
cash reserves to meet the demand.
And that’s exactly what happened--
all over the country--
and what turned an economic crisis
into the Great Depression.
In order to prevent such a run
you’ve gotta convince people
to stop asking for money
or you’ve got to find a way
to get more cash…
And that’s one of the main roles
of the Federal Reserve.
This is the Federal Reserve
in Washington, DC.
And I’ve been invited to talk
with Randy Kroszner,
one of the governors
of the Federal Reserve Board,
and I’m really excited!
The Fed’s job is to make sure
that the nation’s economy
and banking system
stay healthy and sound.
I asked Governor Kroszner
about the Fed’s role
in the Great Depression.
Unfortunately, the Fed
did not pursue
very good policies
in the late 20s, early 30s…
In particular in the early 30s.
It just didn’t really respond
to what was going on
in the economy.
I read where
most of these banks were sound,
well-run institutions
that they had plenty of assets -
they were just in a cash crunch.
The Fed could have stepped in
and stopped it at any point,
but they didn’t.
What the Fed did was focus
on the so called monetary base.
That is, the parts
of the money supply
that they directly control the amount
of physical cash that’s out there,
and some of the so called reserves
that banks have.
But what’s relevant
for the overall economy
is not just that,
but how that multiplies out
to be part of the money supply.
So by focusing on the wrong thing,
by just focusing on
the monetary base,
and assuming oh well
these are just like normal times
we know that the multiplier is “x”
and so the money supply
will always be “x” times
the monetary base,
we don’t really have to worry.
That obviously was
a terrible mistake in the 1930s.
Basically, when the
bank loans money,
it doesn’t just go to
one person and stay there.
I just bought this lot.
I’d like to get a loan
to build a house.
Alright.
I think we can do a loan
for about $600,000.
At a prime plus rate… maybe one point.
That person uses it to run a business,
buying supplies
and paying salaries and commissions.
And the people
that get paid, in turn,
use that money to pay
for other things.
More when you’re done.
Thanks, dad.
And I keep the ball rolling
by spending that money
at the movies or at the mall.
And that’s how money multiplies
throughout the economy.
But the early 30s
were not normal times;
the people were scared.
They began hoarding their money
under mattresses
and in their cookie jars,
and not putting those dollars
back into the economy.
The Fed was hoarding cash, too,
shrinking the supply
of money out there
for people to use,
and that made it even worse.
The sudden disappearance
of paper money,
which is after all,
one of our economy’s most powerful
and recognizable symbols…
sent the country into a tailspin.
People lost faith in their financial
and business institutions.
That multiplier was much smaller,
the money supply was collapsing
by a third,
and the Fed
wasn’t really paying attention.
They were really neglecting
a very important problem.
So what might have happened
if they had increased
the money supply?
It’s possible
that we would have
had a depression,
but it wouldn’t have been great.
As I sometimes say,
it’s the Fed that helped
to make the depression
into the Great Depression.
If the Fed had provided
more liquidity to the system,
more cash to the system,
people might not have lost
as much confidence as they did,
the banking system might not have
collapsed as it did.
Does that mean
we could have avoided
any sort of recession
or depression completely?
I don’t think so.
Could we have avoided
making the depression great?
Probably.
And I learned something else, too.
In 1999 and 2000,
the conditions were just like those
in the Great Depression.
But we didn’t have a depression.
So why do you think that is?
The behavior of the stock market
and the economy in the late 90s
was almost identical
with that of the late 20s.
The stock market boomed,
just as it did in 1929.
In 2000,
there was also a
big stock market crash,
and stock prices tumbled.
But after the crash of 1929,
the economy dived
and kept going down.
Not so after the crash of 2000.
There’s no economic collapse,
no depression,
no homeless teenagers.
Why?
Because the Fed
added to the money supply in 2001,
in response to the crash.
It correctly met the challenge
so people didn’t lose faith
in the money system
or in the economy.
So you see,
the Fed affects you
and me everyday,
and you didn’t even know it.
When the Fed made mistakes,
the unintended consequences
were extreme hardship.
In the 1930s,
it helped to turn a recession
into the Great Depression.
I knew I it was in there!
C’mon guys let’s go.
I was just telling her:
all you need is a little faith!
So in the 1930s,
the Fed printed too little money.
But in the 1970s,
they printed too much money,
and then we wound up
with double digit inflation.
Some economists suggest
we might be better off
without the Fed.
Follow Carra's example.
Let banks print their own currency.
More broadly,
many economists suggest
the government shouldn't
intervene in markets.
These are challenging questions
that I hope you will explore further.
コツ:単語をクリックしてすぐ意味を調べられます!

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The Great Depression 2.0 - Full Video

1321 タグ追加 保存
Ji Zhi Chen 2016 年 1 月 8 日 に公開
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