Many and I poised to be the trade of next year as well. Thanks to the Central Bank of Europe and the US. But that should be cautious.

On Thursday, the dovish European Central Bank is indeed poised to move rates even more deeply negative

to extend quantitative easing beyond next September to buy more bonds, or possibly, to do all three.

In the full-night time, the US Federal Reserves widely expected to take the exact opposite approach, raising interest rates for the first time in almost the decade.

It's living divergence. In conclusion, obvious, buy the Dollar, sell the Euro. The US is tightening and the Euro zone easing. What else could you do?

Well, this chart shows the value of the Euro, that's the blue line that against the Dollar.

And against that in red is the additional yield that you earned from holding German rather than US short-dated bonds.

Even as German yields followed European monetary policy into more negative territory, US's yields have been rising than anticipation of Fed action.

That's driven down the spread day into a deeply negative territory, that's have on the left says that

German bond yields deny almost 2 percentage points lower than in the US at the 2-year level.

Well, so far so obvious, but everyone knows this: the short viewpoint to that yesterday. That's on the Dollar rising could still get a bit more crowded.

So perhaps, there is a bit more to go. After all Euros just coming close to the levels that it hit back in March.

The problem is with the fundamentals. Monetary policy in the Euro zone seems to be working.

There are still threats of course with Ukraine and the Middle East on Europe's doorstep,

and domestic political danger's never far away and troubled Euro zone.

But look at the economic data, and the region doesn't look like it's improving fast.

Today brought European manufacturing figures showing the fastest growth since last summer.

Banks again lending to companies and individuals. And employments dropped to the lowest since early 2012.

Monetary base is growing just as far as it did from the Euro's lounge back in 1999, up to the start of the crisis year of 2017.

If you look at core inflation stripping at the volatile energy and food prices, it's back about 1%, still below the 2% plus the 2% target,

but while away from the deflation re-threat. At the same time, GDP that's rising faster than the sclerotic Euro zone can expect in the long return.

And all of that suggest, after this week's easing by the ECB, the talk in the Euro zone might soon turn hawkish.

At the same time, the US recovery is starting to look a bit more challenged. Today's manufacturing data in the US, that's the blue line there,

is showing the sector contracting at the fastest pace since 2009, should say below 50 shows the manufacturing's contracting, and above 50 shows gross.

This is red line is the Euro zone.

Does it start look as though the strength of the Dollars starting to hurt the internationally exposed American manufacturers?

At the same time is the weak Euro is starting to help the European manufacturers.

The domestically-driven US services sector still looks ok, but higher US inflation

compared to Europe can all be explained at the core level by the faster rising US's ramps, just hardly the basic building block for robustic economy,

And none of this means the Dollar is about to crash. But after rising a third since last summer, sorry it's the summer last year, against the Euro,

investors would need to think that the European recovery is weaker than the data suggests,

while the US is stronger in order to bet on the Dollar having another big gain in 2016.