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  • Hello, welcome back to The Note. Continues to be a very difficult talk or think about markets,

  • when the news about the geopolitical situations the terrorists aftering Paris is still so fresh.

  • However, markets don't seem to be so skirmish.

  • We saw a remarkable rally in the circumstances across Europian stock markets stay particularly in France.

  • Meanwhile, here in The States, The S&P turns down in the afternoon but nothing too dramatic.

  • The key difference between those two markets being, of course, that's the Europian market closed before the very alarming use matters of disexpected

  • plans terrorist attack in Havana came across the wires while that happened while US stock markets were still trading.

  • More broadly, away from the stock markets, I suspect the most significant markets must be looking at this point, are the metals.

  • Now if we take a look at gold, it has a very sharp sell off today, is now down about ten percent from a height gain after a rebound,

  • about a month ago it's now a new low for a year and that you can see,

  • it's loft into a quite significant down trains.

  • You will normally expect gold to benefit from safe payment buying from people or worried about the geopolitical situation but this point people plainly aren't worried about that.

  • Instead, the strength of the dollar which goes with the belief that the FED will be raising rates is helping to push gold down.

  • Now if we take a look at a very different metal, copper, as we mostly know the most important to be industrial metals,

  • That's also have another sell off today is now, let's say fresh post crisis low , barely any higher than it was a decade ago,

  • think all of the growth that China has managed in the interim, it is not good to push copper prices up,

  • plainly showing continued very great concerns world about industrial or manufacturing economy.

  • You can also put this together for the force of foreign exchange of the emerging markets and continued strength in the dollar.

  • There are a number of areas where the pressure on the FED not to raise rates on the concern there may be some kind of emerging market crisis could be building.

  • There is also a belief which is helping to buy stock markets,

  • the latest geopolitical news could give central banks a get out of jail free card,

  • an excuse not to raise rates if there is a period of high uncertainty that there is always a good justification not to raise rates.

  • Hence, we have this rather strange picture where markets such as industrial metals or foreign exchanges,

  • suggesting very difficult problems when it comes to attempting to raise rates,

  • while stock markets are showing equanimity as is in many ways the gold price

  • You could argue and I might agree,

  • but this is really rather worryingly relaxed attitude by markets to some very scary news.

Hello, welcome back to The Note. Continues to be a very difficult talk or think about markets,

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嵐の後の静けさ I オーサーズノート (Calm after the storm I Authers Note)

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    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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