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So Steve, you do know these things? It is one data point, but encouraging.
Yeah, it's actually two data points they're both the prices and the unemployment numbers. Yeah, they're encouraging a sense of positive economic growth.
They obviously put lean the other way with respect to the FED.
And so this is the conundrum and attention that's going on right now.
What's your take? I mean at this point when you see these numbers how closely do you follow them?
And for you and the way you invest, does it matter when we're gonna get a hike?
I follow them quite closely because they do inform us as to lots of other things.
Personally, I don't think the FED should be raising rates any time in the foreseeable future.
I don't see the case for it particularly, but in terms of, kind of firm equity investing, the kind of long term investing we do,
No. Whether the FED raises in October, December, or January isn't gonna change our lives.
Alright, I wanna turn to D.C. where our colleague Jeanna Smialek from Bloomberg Economics and a Federal Reserve reporter is joining us.
What do you make here?
You know, I think that the really important number out this morning is that inflation point.
It's the last inflation, major input inflation point that were going to get before the FED meets in October.
And at this point in time, as the FED looks to see if its still mandated and satisfied, they're feeling pretty good about the employment side,
so I think it's those price pressures that they're really still waiting to see pick up toward their 2 percent goal.
And wage growth of course, right? We keep looking for wage growth, which we haven't been able to see
despite the fact that we were saying we're close to full employment.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I think the wage growth and the inflation numbers are to some degree related.
You know, it's really debated how much wage growth leads inflation and vice versa?
But I think that if they saw either wage pressures or a little bit of inflation, it'd make them feel a lot better that their goals can be satisfied.
Thank you very much, Jeanna. So go ahead.
Steve, do you wanna weigh in?
Well I agree with that. I think wage pressure is probably the key indicator. We need some increased wages,
wages haven't risen after you adjust for inflation in quite a long time.
So those who think wage pressure would actually be a good thing, but that will be the thing that probably gets the FED to move.
One that occurs.
But if you look at the futures, I looked at them this morning, I think actually, you have get it down till April before you get about 50 percent likelihood of a raise.
And that's a very recent development, as you know,
(Yes, exactly. It's moving.)
to go back a week or two. I think people were taking Yellen at her word that was gonna happen this year,
and then you had Lael Brainard and Tarullo coming out on the other side, but you also had on your show
people like very Barry Stern, he's very sort of centrist balanced guy saying, "Let's just get it over with, raise rates, and let's just get on with it."
So it's gonna be a really interesting discussion, it'll be fun to be a fly on the wall.
What does it mean to Janet Yellen and her position? There are so many other FED governors out there so publicly on the other side?
Well, there are two so far, right? And if you go back to the last meeting, when all the governors put their little dots on the chart,
in terms of the way they thought things were going, I think it was 13 out of 17 thought (that) it would raise by the end of the year,
so 4 that didn't. Maybe that number is bigger now. You know, Janet Yellen is a consensus person.
I think she is going to listen to her fellow FOMC members. And try to build a consensus.
And there may be some dissenters one way or another, but I don't think she will be one of them.
I think she will part of a majority, and probably substantial majority. But you know, everybody assumes that
Janet Yellen knows right now what she's gonna do in December. December is a long way from now. We're gonna get a lot more data.
We're gonna know a fair amount more, and then you deal with the facts that are in front of you, and then you make a decision.
Yeah, and in fairness actually, if you look at what Tarullo actually said, he was very careful, and saying based on the data as it right now,
(Right, exactly.)
but we've got a long way, just as you just said, long way between here and December, and things could develop.
So he did not say no rate hike.
Exactly.
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Steve Rattner: Here's Why the Fed Shouldn't Raise Rates Anytime Soon

96 タグ追加 保存
Ray Du 2015 年 10 月 16 日 に公開
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