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  • So Steve, you do know these things? It is one data point, but encouraging.

  • Yeah, it's actually two data points they're both the prices and the unemployment numbers. Yeah, they're encouraging a sense of positive economic growth.

  • They obviously put lean the other way with respect to the FED.

  • And so this is the conundrum and attention that's going on right now.

  • What's your take? I mean at this point when you see these numbers how closely do you follow them?

  • And for you and the way you invest, does it matter when we're gonna get a hike?

  • I follow them quite closely because they do inform us as to lots of other things.

  • Personally, I don't think the FED should be raising rates any time in the foreseeable future.

  • I don't see the case for it particularly, but in terms of, kind of firm equity investing, the kind of long term investing we do,

  • No. Whether the FED raises in October, December, or January isn't gonna change our lives.

  • Alright, I wanna turn to D.C. where our colleague Jeanna Smialek from Bloomberg Economics and a Federal Reserve reporter is joining us.

  • What do you make here?

  • You know, I think that the really important number out this morning is that inflation point.

  • It's the last inflation, major input inflation point that were going to get before the FED meets in October.

  • And at this point in time, as the FED looks to see if its still mandated and satisfied, they're feeling pretty good about the employment side,

  • so I think it's those price pressures that they're really still waiting to see pick up toward their 2 percent goal.

  • And wage growth of course, right? We keep looking for wage growth, which we haven't been able to see

  • despite the fact that we were saying we're close to full employment.

  • Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I think the wage growth and the inflation numbers are to some degree related.

  • You know, it's really debated how much wage growth leads inflation and vice versa?

  • But I think that if they saw either wage pressures or a little bit of inflation, it'd make them feel a lot better that their goals can be satisfied.

  • Thank you very much, Jeanna. So go ahead.

  • Steve, do you wanna weigh in?

  • Well I agree with that. I think wage pressure is probably the key indicator. We need some increased wages,

  • wages haven't risen after you adjust for inflation in quite a long time.

  • So those who think wage pressure would actually be a good thing, but that will be the thing that probably gets the FED to move.

  • One that occurs.

  • But if you look at the futures, I looked at them this morning, I think actually, you have get it down till April before you get about 50 percent likelihood of a raise.

  • And that's a very recent development, as you know,

  • (Yes, exactly. It's moving.)

  • to go back a week or two. I think people were taking Yellen at her word that was gonna happen this year,

  • and then you had Lael Brainard and Tarullo coming out on the other side, but you also had on your show

  • people like very Barry Stern, he's very sort of centrist balanced guy saying, "Let's just get it over with, raise rates, and let's just get on with it."

  • So it's gonna be a really interesting discussion, it'll be fun to be a fly on the wall.

  • What does it mean to Janet Yellen and her position? There are so many other FED governors out there so publicly on the other side?

  • Well, there are two so far, right? And if you go back to the last meeting, when all the governors put their little dots on the chart,

  • in terms of the way they thought things were going, I think it was 13 out of 17 thought (that) it would raise by the end of the year,

  • so 4 that didn't. Maybe that number is bigger now. You know, Janet Yellen is a consensus person.

  • I think she is going to listen to her fellow FOMC members. And try to build a consensus.

  • And there may be some dissenters one way or another, but I don't think she will be one of them.

  • I think she will part of a majority, and probably substantial majority. But you know, everybody assumes that

  • Janet Yellen knows right now what she's gonna do in December. December is a long way from now. We're gonna get a lot more data.

  • We're gonna know a fair amount more, and then you deal with the facts that are in front of you, and then you make a decision.

  • Yeah, and in fairness actually, if you look at what Tarullo actually said, he was very careful, and saying based on the data as it right now,

  • (Right, exactly.)

  • but we've got a long way, just as you just said, long way between here and December, and things could develop.

  • So he did not say no rate hike.

  • Exactly.

So Steve, you do know these things? It is one data point, but encouraging.

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スティーブ・ラットナーFRBがすぐに利上げをすべきではない理由はここにある (Steve Rattner: Here's Why the Fed Shouldn't Raise Rates Anytime Soon)

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    Ray Du に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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