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Up, up we go, we're now back to strong dollar of the 1990s,
at the end of the day it overcomes all. why is it our exorbitant privilege?
I think exorbitant privilege in the sense the U.S. actually can get away with policies that no other country can,
I mean think about this, when the Fed was doing QE for five years,
other countries might have basically brought on a crisis, the U.S. on the other hand was able to watch the recovery off this.
So I think that's the main thing, but I think what we need to basically recognize is, there is now bifurcation of the dollar in the market.
Dollars doing very well against EM currencies, against commodity currencies, but against the Euro and the Yen or the likes,
the dollar has been actually taking a bit of a back seat because the problem line is, as China devalues, China slows,
you know to the extent that it's gonna lead the Fed to basically hike more slowly,
this has not been such good news against the Euro.
OK, help me with your Yen callouts, three four and five years, where is Yen three four five years from now?
I think the Yen is going to be a tad weaker, but I think the short-term, in fact if anything, the Yen is probably going to be stronger.
Think about it, going to tomorrow. If the Fed were to hike rates, the Yen is going to be stronger because the stock market is going to go down.
If the Fed doesn't hike rates, the Yen is probably going to be stronger too.
The differential between Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs, is to a weaker Yen,
through some further form of Abenomics, that implies a Rubin-like dollar, doesn't it?
I think to some extent, yes, absolutely. But I think to the extent that the U.S. until now is willing to accept further Yen weakness,
but I think those days are coming to an end. I think somebody in Detroit is already calling up somebody in Washington, somebody in Washington is calling up...
Exactly! This is my point, you know David Woo, that this is not solved by economists,
it's solved by manufacturers like Detroit, or frankly by the state department, isn't it?
Absolutely, especially now with Donald Trump, and basically Mario, basically Rubio talking up, you know basically,
the whole story about China, Japan taking jobs away from the U.S., I think you have to believe that sooner or later the U.S. will be forced to join the currency war.
I gotta ask this question, very critical here. Have you been advising Mr. Trump on economic policy?
Not yet.
What you're talking about Trump and Rubio also to some extent,
it's the great American past-time to predict our own decline, but does anything threaten?
Anywhere in the future, this exorbitant privilege?
Not, not really. I mean I think in fact this whole SDR business around China is a fig leaf.
In fact, if the U.S. is in an invariable position and nobody else is in right now.
So there's no question the U.S. is coming back, however, the question is can the U.S. decouple from the rest of the world as the rest of the world slows.
And I think at what point will the U.S. be forced to join the currency war, because the dollar and the renminbi remain the two strongest currency in the world,
we'll just see what the Chinese, no longer the one with strong currency, the question is how much longer the U.S. will find a strong currency desirable.
And because so much is invoiced in dollar as well, you know, the currency war works better for us than it does for anybody else.
Exactly. There is no question.
Until? For our viewers out there that don't know Modigliani, or viewers who don't really understand reflation versus inflation,
what is the trip that turns us from a benevolent strong dollar into a troubled strong dollar?
I think you know, honestly, this is where renminbi would devalue, which is my prediction,
I think my prediction is that the biggest story in the next six months is gonna be an acceleration in the renminbi devaluation,
that's gonna basically create competitive devaluation around the world,
commodity prices are gonna come down sharply, it's gonna be highly deflation for the U.S. That's where the problem is.
Okay, David Woo, thank you so much with this core call of a second derivative of what we will see in the Yen,
we've got calculus into the six o'clock hour, that's cool.


Why Can U.S. Have Policies No Other Countries Can?

4411 タグ追加 保存
Ray Du 2015 年 9 月 16 日 に公開
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