Name: 人類滅亡 (Human Extinction)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:41:15.000Z
Duration: 8 min 11 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

Hey, Vsauce. Michael here. Do you want to be infected with Ebola

without having to leave your own home or deal with other people?

法助動詞 B1

Well, you might be in luck. You can already download an Ebola virus

Right here on the Internet, right now. And if you're willing to wait

a few years for 3D bioprinting technology to progress

a little bit, you can just acquire one then, submit the genome to it

Or anthrax or whatever it is you wish to mass-produce at home

anthropogenic? That is the result of human

action. Or will it be one of the good old-fashioned kinds

of extinction Earth's history knows pretty well?

The Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, issued by Oxford University's

Future of Humanity Institute placed our risk of extinction

Now, you might be thinking "whatever, blah blah blah armageddon".

But it's difficult to predict the distant future

with a lot of certainty. What's really cool though

is that if you embrace that uncertainty, a simple argument

can show that human extinction soon is actually

numbered 1 to a million. Now, you don't know

which is the case, but you are allowed to pull out

That's pretty strong evidence in favour of the 10 ball condition

because drawing a four from a set of 1 through 10

is a one in 10 chance. But drawing four from a million different numbers

Importantly, you didn't get to decide which birth number

you would have. So, just like the number for a ball,

you are a random sample from the set of all humans

who will ever live. The Doomsday argument points out

that from 200 billion people there's a 50 percent chance that a randomly chosen

like you, would be born in the first one hundred billion.

Whereas if there will be 10 trillion humans,

there's only a one percent chance that any given human,

say you, would happen to be born within the first

and lucky to be born so improbably early in the story of humanity

because there will not be tens of trillions of humans.

too convinced that the end is nigh, keep in mind that the Doomsday argument is

uncontroversial. One problem it might have

is a reference class problem. Are you really a

random sample from the set of all humans who will ever

be born? Well, if you believe that in the not so distant future

humans will be quite different than they are today.

For instance, there'll be full of more 3D printed

organs. The mere fact that right now there aren't very many humans

with that trait could be evidence that you aren't a random sample from the

the Doomsday argument doesn't consider the likelihoods

over those threats in the future. It just assumes that

we don't know which way the balance will lie; that

human extinction soon and human extinction

later are equally likely. But maybe you don't believe that.

Maybe you are convinced that human ingenuity will

always stay one step ahead of any extinction event

but there's reason to doubt that optimism.

If it is likely that intelligent life forms in our universe are capable

it is because extinction level threat events are just

The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement think so.

Founded in 1991, its supporters believe that

we have a moral obligation to just stop reproducing

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人類滅亡 (Human Extinction)

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