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  • Incubate Pictures presents

  • In association with Post Carbon Institute

  • There's No Tomorrow

  • This is the earth,

  • as it looked 90 million years ago.

  • Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'.

  • It was a time of extreme global warming,

  • When dinosaurs still ruled the planet.

  • They went about their lives,

  • secure in their place at the top of the food chain,

  • oblivious of the changes taking place around them.

  • The continents were drifting apart,

  • opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust.

  • They flooded, becoming seas.

  • Algae thrived in the extreme heat,

  • poisoning the water.

  • They died,

  • and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts.

  • Rivers washed sediment into the seas,

  • until the organic remains of the algae were buried.

  • As the pressure grew, so did the heat,

  • until a chemical reaction transformed the organics

  • into hydrocarbon fossil fuels:

  • Oil and Natural Gas.

  • A similar process occurred on land,

  • which produced coal.

  • It took nature about 5 million years

  • to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year.

  • The modern way of life

  • is dependent on this fossilised sunlight,

  • although a surprising number of people take it for granted.

  • Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil.

  • Since then, the world has used approximately half.

  • Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it.

  • At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract.

  • The first great American oilfield was Spindletop,

  • discovered in 1900

  • Many more followed.

  • Geologists scoured America.

  • They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal.

  • America produced more oil than any other country,

  • enabling it to become an industrial super-power.

  • Once an oil well starts producing oil,

  • it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline.

  • Individual wells have different production rates.

  • When many wells are averaged together,

  • the combined graph looks like a bell curve.

  • Typically

  • it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery

  • for a country to reach its peak of production,

  • after which it enters a permanent fall.

  • In the 1950s,

  • Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert

  • predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970,

  • 40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery.

  • Few believed him.

  • However, in 1970,

  • American oil production peaked,

  • and entered a permanent decline.

  • Hubbert was vindicated.

  • From this point on,

  • America would depend increasingly on imported oil.

  • This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions,

  • and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973

  • and 1979 oil shocks.

  • The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history.

  • In spite of advanced technology,

  • the decline in the discovery of new American oilfields has been relentless.

  • More recent finds, such as ANWAR,

  • would at best provide enough oil for 17 months.

  • Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico

  • would only supply a few months of domestic demand.

  • Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying

  • America's energy requirements.

  • Evidence is now mounting

  • that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it.

  • Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s.

  • Over 40 years later,

  • the decline in the discovery of new fields

  • seems unstoppable.

  • 54 of the 65 major oil producing nations

  • have already peaked in production.

  • Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future.

  • The world will need to bring the equivalent

  • of a new Saudi Arabia into production

  • every three years

  • to make up for declining output in existing oilfields.

  • In the nineteen sixties,

  • six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used.

  • Four decades later,

  • the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil

  • for every one that it finds.

  • Once the peak of world oil production is reached,

  • demand for oil will outstrip supply,

  • and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly,

  • affecting far more than the cost of filling a car.

  • Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

  • Even roads are made from asphalt,

  • a petroleum product,

  • as are the roofs of many homes.

  • Large areas would be uninhabitable

  • without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.

  • Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles

  • to work, school and stores.

  • Major cities have been zoned with residential

  • and commercial areas placed far apart,

  • forcing people to drive.

  • Suburbia, and many communities

  • were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy.

  • Chemicals derived from fossil fuels,

  • or Petro-chemicals,

  • are essential in the manufacture of countless products.

  • The modern system of agriculture

  • is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,

  • as are hospitals,

  • aviation,

  • water distribution systems,

  • and the U.S. military,

  • which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year.

  • Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers,

  • key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing.

  • The global economy currently depends on endless growth,

  • demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy.

  • We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels,

  • that even a small disruption in supply

  • may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives.

  • ENERGY

  • Energy is the ability to do work.

  • The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day.

  • Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels,

  • Some fuels contain more energy than others.

  • This is called energy density.

  • Of these fuels, oil is the most critical.

  • The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year,

  • equal to 1 cubic mile of oil,

  • which contains as much energy

  • as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants

  • working for the next 50 years.

  • Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity,

  • it powers 96% of all transportation.

  • In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported.

  • Most was from Canada,

  • Mexico,

  • Saudi Arabia,

  • Venezuela,

  • Nigeria, Iraq and Angola.

  • Several factors make oil unique:

  • it is energy dense.

  • One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent

  • of almost three years of human labour.

  • It is liquid at room temperature,

  • easy to transport

  • and usable in small engines.

  • To acquire energy, you have to use energy.

  • The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts.

  • This is called EROEI:

  • Energy Return on Energy Invested.

  • Conventional oil is a good example.

  • The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first.

  • Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100.

  • The EROEI of oil was 100.

  • As the easy to find oil was pumped first,

  • exploration moved into deep waters,

  • or distant countries,

  • using increasing amounts of energy to do so.

  • Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude,

  • and is expensive to refine.

  • The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10.

  • If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel,

  • it's not worth the effort to get it.

  • It is possible to convert one fuel source into another.

  • Every time you do so,

  • some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost.

  • For instance, there is unconventional oil:

  • Tar Sands and Shale.

  • Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada.

  • Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US.

  • Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil.

  • However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water,

  • reducing their EROEI,

  • which varies from five, to as low as one and a half.

  • Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel,

  • pound for pound containing about one third the energy

  • of a box of breakfast cereal.

  • Coal exists in vast quantities,

  • and generates almost half of the planet's electricity.

  • The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year.

  • However, Global coal production may peak before 2040.

  • The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive,

  • as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality.

  • Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone,

  • leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense.

  • Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted,

  • and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas.

  • Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits,

  • causing environmental mayhem.

  • Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal.

  • North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s,

  • and production peaked in the early 70s.

  • If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years,

  • the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production

  • is revealed.

  • Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas,

  • such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead.

  • Unconventional natural gas is controversial,

  • as it needs high energy prices to be profitable.

  • Even with Unconventional gas,

  • there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030.

  • Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist.

  • To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels,

  • would require 10,000 nuclear power plants.

  • At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years.

  • Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors

  • in France and Japan

  • have been expensive failures.

  • Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles.

  • Then there are the renewables.

  • Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent.

  • Hydro power is reliable,

  • but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed.

  • Conventional geothermal power plants

  • use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface.

  • They are limited to those areas.

  • In the experimental EGS system,

  • two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep.

  • Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures,

  • then rise up the other, generating power.

  • According to a recent MIT report,

  • this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050.

  • Wave power is restricted to coastal areas.

  • The energy density of waves varies from region to region.

  • Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging.

  • Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines.

  • Biofuels are fuels that are grown.

  • Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly.

  • The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year.

  • Biodiesel and ethanol

  • are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture.

  • The energy profit from these fuels is very low.

  • Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol.

  • Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020,

  • would require 3% of America's Land.

  • To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food.

  • To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020

  • would take twice as much land as is used to grow food.

  • Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water,

  • which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen.

  • This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely.

  • All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity

  • as two coal power plants.

  • The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal

  • are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel.

  • We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels

  • to meet current world demand.

  • As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles.

  • Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential,

  • though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating.

  • They are also limited to sunny climates,

  • requiring large amounts of electricity

  • to be transmitted over long distances.

  • All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery,

  • or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil.

  • When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions,

  • ask:

  • Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention?

  • What is its energy density?

  • Can it be stored or easily distributed?

  • Is it reliable or intermittent?

  • Can it be scaled to a national level?

  • Are there hidden engineering challenges?

  • What is the EROEI?

  • What are the environmental impacts?

  • Remember that large numbers can be deceptive.

  • For example: 1 billion barrels of oil

  • will satisfy global demand for only 12 days.

  • A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge.

  • As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity.

  • 21.6% is from natural gas,

  • 1.6% is from petroleum,

  • 19.4% is from nuclear,

  • 5.8% is from hydro.

  • Other renewables only generate 2.5%.

  • Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels

  • with a patchwork of alternatives?

  • Major technological advances are needed,

  • as well as political will and co-operation,

  • massive investment,

  • international consensus,

  • the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy,

  • including transportation,

  • manufacturing industries,

  • and agricultural systems,

  • as well as officials competent to manage the transition.

  • If all these are achieved,

  • could the current way of life continue?

  • Growth

  • These bacteria live in a bottle.

  • Their population doubles every minute.

  • At 11AM there is one bacterium.

  • At 12 noon the bottle is full.

  • It is half-full at 11.59

  • leaving only enough space for one more doubling.

  • The bacteria see the danger.

  • They search for new bottles, and find 3.

  • They assume that their problem is solved.

  • By 12 noon, the first bottle is full.

  • By 12.01, the second bottle is full.

  • By 12.02, all the bottles are full.

  • This is the problem that we face,

  • due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth.

  • When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources,

  • it experienced unprecedented growth.

  • Even low growth rates produce large increases over time.

  • At a 1% growth rate,

  • an economy will double in 70 years.

  • A 2% rate doubles in 35 years.

  • At a 10% growth rate,

  • an economy will double in only 7 years.

  • If an economy grows at the current average of 3%,

  • it doubles every 23 years.

  • With each doubling, demand for energy and resources

  • will exceed all the previous doublings combined.

  • The financial system is built on the assumption of growth

  • - which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it.

  • Banks lend money they don't have,

  • in effect creating it.

  • The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses,

  • and pay back the debt,

  • with an interest payment which requires more growth.

  • Due to this creation of debt formed money,

  • most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid.

  • Without continual new and ever larger generations

  • of borrowers to produce growth,

  • and thus pay off these debts,

  • the world economy will collapse.

  • Like a Ponzi Scheme,

  • the system must expand or die.

  • Partly through this debt system,

  • the effects of economic growth have been spectacular:

  • in GDP,

  • damming of rivers,

  • water use,

  • fertiliser consumption,

  • urban population,

  • paper consumption,

  • motor vehicles,

  • communications

  • and tourism.

  • World population has grown to 7 billion,

  • and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.

  • On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem.

  • However, as the Earth is round and finite,

  • we will eventually face limits to growth.

  • Economic expansion

  • has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide

  • and methane,

  • ozone depletion,

  • increases in great floods,

  • damage to ocean ecosystems,

  • including nitrogen runoff,

  • loss of rainforest and woodland,

  • increases in domesticated land,

  • and species exinctions.

  • If we place a single grain of rice

  • on the first square of a chessboard,

  • double this and place 2 grains on the second,

  • double again and place 4 on the third,

  • double again and place 8 on the fourth,

  • and continue this way,

  • putting on each square twice the number of grains

  • than were on the previous one,

  • by the time we reach the final square,

  • we need an astronomical number of grains:

  • 9 quintillion,

  • 223 quadrillion,

  • 372 trillion,

  • 36 billion,

  • 854 million,

  • 776 thousand grains:

  • more grain than the human race

  • has grown in the last 10,000 years.

  • Modern economies,

  • like the grains on the chess board,

  • doubles every few decades.

  • On which square of the chessboard are we?

  • Besides energy,

  • civilisation demands numerous essential resources:

  • fresh water,

  • topsoil,

  • food,

  • forests,

  • and many kinds of minerals and metals.

  • Growth is limited

  • by the essential resource in scarcest supply.

  • A barrel is made of staves,

  • and like water filling a barrel,

  • growth can go no further than the lowest stave,

  • or the most limited essential resource.

  • Humans currently utilise

  • 40% of all photosynthesis n Earth.

  • Though it might be possible to use 80%,

  • we are unlikely to ever use 160%.

  • FOOD

  • The global food supply

  • relies heavily on fossil fuels.

  • Before WW1,

  • all agriculture was Organic.

  • Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides

  • there were massive improvements in food production,

  • allowing for increases in human population.

  • The use of artificial fertilisers

  • has fed far more people than would have been possible

  • with organic agriculture alone.

  • Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment,

  • transportation,

  • refrigeration,

  • packaging - in plastic,

  • and cooking.

  • Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food

  • - and food into people.

  • About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy

  • are used to produce 1 calorie of food.

  • In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer.

  • Besides fossil fuel decline,

  • there are several threats to the current system of food production:

  • Cheap energy,

  • improved technology

  • and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches.

  • Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties,

  • forcing fishermen to move into deep waters.

  • Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers

  • poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones.

  • At this rate,

  • all fish populations are projected to collapse

  • by 2048.

  • Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients,

  • such as potassium,

  • calcium,

  • and magnesium.

  • Another threat is a lack of water.

  • Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation.

  • The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up,

  • but can be pumped dry in a few decades,

  • like oil wells.

  • America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low

  • that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming.

  • Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation:

  • the accumulation of salt in the soil.

  • This is a major cause of desertification.

  • Still another threat is topsoil loss.

  • 200 years ago,

  • there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies.

  • Today, through tillage and poor practices,

  • approximately half is gone.

  • Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99

  • - which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest.

  • According to Norman Borlaug,

  • father of the Green Revolution,

  • stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction."

  • The use of biofuels means that less land

  • will be available for food production.

  • An area has a finite carrying capacity.

  • This is the number of animals or people

  • that can live there indefinitely.

  • If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area,

  • it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits.

  • The world has avoided this die-off

  • by finding new lands to cultivate,

  • or by increasing production,

  • which has been possible largely thanks to oil.

  • To continue growth,

  • more resources are required than the Earth can provide,

  • but no new planets are available.

  • In the face of all these challenges,

  • global food production must double by 2050

  • to feed the growing world population.

  • 1 billion people are already malnourished or starving.

  • There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come,

  • when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline.

  • HAPPY ENDING

  • The global economy grows exponentially,

  • at about 3% a year,

  • consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels,

  • minerals and metals,

  • as well as renewable resources

  • like water, forests, soils and fish

  • faster than they can be replenished.

  • Even at a growth rate of 1%,

  • an economy will double in 70 years.

  • The problem is intensified by other factors:

  • Globalisation allows people on one continent

  • to buy goods and food made by those on another.

  • The lines of supply are long,

  • placing strains on a limited oil resource.

  • We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities.

  • Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.

  • Most Banking Systems are based on debt,

  • forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments

  • - producing growth.

  • What can be done in the face of these problems?

  • Many believe that the crisis can be prevented

  • through conservation,

  • technology,

  • smart growth,

  • recycling,

  • electric cars and hybrids,

  • substitution,

  • or voting.

  • Conservation will save you money,

  • but it alone won't save the planet.

  • If some people cut back on oil use,

  • the reduced demand will drive down the price,

  • allowing others to buy it for less.

  • In the same fashion,

  • a more efficient engine that uses less energy will,

  • paradoxically, lead to greater energy use.

  • In the 19th century,

  • English economist William Stanley Jevons

  • realised that Better steam engines made coal

  • a more cost effective fuel source,

  • which led to the use of more steam engines,

  • which increased total coal consumption.

  • Growth of use will consume any energy or resources

  • saved through conservation.

  • Many believe that scientists

  • will solve these problems with new technology.

  • However, technology is not energy.

  • Technology can channel energy into work,

  • but it can't replace it.

  • It also consumes resources:

  • for instance;

  • computers are made with one tenth

  • of the energy needed to make a car.

  • More advanced technologies

  • may make the situation worse,

  • as many require rare minerals,

  • which are also approaching limits.

  • For example,

  • 97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China,

  • most from a single mine in inner Mongolia.

  • These minerals are used in catalytic converters,

  • aircraft engines,

  • high efficiency magnets and hard drives,

  • hybrid car batteries,

  • lasers,

  • portable X-Rays,

  • shielding for nuclear reactors,

  • compact discs,

  • hybrid vehicle motors,

  • low energy light-bulbs,

  • fibre optics

  • and flat-screen displays.

  • China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals,

  • as demand soars.

  • So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help,

  • as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals

  • in ever increasing quantities,

  • including Rare Earths.

  • Recycling will not solve the problem,

  • as it requires energy,

  • and the process is not 100% efficient.

  • It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled;

  • a large portion is lost forever as waste.

  • Electric cars run on electricity.

  • As most power is generated from fossil fuels,

  • this is not a solution.

  • Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production.

  • Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum.

  • There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010.

  • At current growth rates,

  • this number would reach 2 billion by 2025.

  • It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long,

  • regardless of their power source.

  • Many economists believe

  • that the free market will substitute one energy source

  • with another through technological innovation.

  • However, the main substitutes to oil

  • face their own decline rates.

  • Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report

  • estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare

  • for the effects of Peak Oil.

  • The issues of energy shortages,

  • resource depletion,

  • topsoil loss,

  • and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem:

  • Growth.

  • As long as our financial system demands endless growth,

  • reform is unlikely to succeed.

  • What then, will the future look like?

  • Optimists believe that growth will continue forever,

  • without limits.

  • Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age,

  • or extinction.

  • The truth may lie between these extremes.

  • It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state,

  • one in which energy use is a lot less.

  • This would mean a harder life for most.

  • More manual labour,

  • more farm work,

  • and local production of goods, food and services.

  • What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future?

  • Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places.

  • Start walking or cycling.

  • Get used to using less electricity.

  • Get out of debt.

  • Try to avoid banks.

  • Instead of shopping at big box stores,

  • support local businesses.

  • Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets.

  • Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food.

  • Learn how to preserve it.

  • Consider the use of local currencies

  • should the larger economy cease to function,

  • and develop greater self sufficiency.

  • None of these steps will prevent Collapse,

  • but they might improve your chances in a low energy future,

  • one in which we will have to be more self reliant,

  • as our ancestors once were.

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明日はない(ピークオイル、エネルギー、成長と未来 (There's No Tomorrow (peak oil, energy, growth & the future))

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    徐聆 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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