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  • Queen Lion of the Animal Kingdom is displeased. She recently introduced elections for the

  • office of king using the first post the post voting system.

  • While her Realm started out as a healthy democracy with many parties running candidates for king,

  • it quickly devolved into two party rule, with the citizens not liking either one but trapped

  • within the system because of a problem called the spoiler effect.

  • However, one of Queen Lion’s subjects from a distant land, Wallaby, has a solution: The

  • Alternative Vote. What’s the difference?

  • To find out, lets follow one voter on election day, Red Squirrel, under both systems.

  • There are five candidates running for king, two members of the big parties Gorilla and

  • Leopard and three other candidates, Turtle, Owl and Tiger.

  • Under first-past-the-post Red Squirrel gets a ballot where he picks just one candidate.

  • Red Squirrel Really likes Turtle and even campaigned for him. However he knows that

  • his new neighbor, Grey Squirrel, is voting Gorilla.

  • And what, starts to wonder Red Squirrel, about all the other animals? Who are they going

  • to vote for? The debates on Animal News Network only had

  • the big parties, so Red Squirrel thinks it’s going to be a close race between Gorilla and

  • Leopard. While he’s indifferent toward Gorilla he

  • is deathly afraid of Leopard. Because he can only pick a single candidate,

  • he gives his one vote to Gorilla in hopes of preventing Leopard from becoming king.

  • This is strategic voting, and it’s a necessity under First Past the Post.

  • But now it’s time to look at the Alternative Vote, which wallaby explains to Red Squirrel.

  • Instead of picking one and only one candidate, he can rank them in order of his most favorite

  • to his least. He goes into the voting both and gets the

  • same ballot as before, but now puts Turtle as his first choice, Owl as his second and

  • Gorilla, third. He dislikes Leopard and Tiger equally so he

  • stops filling in his ballot and drops it in the box.

  • At this point, Red Squirrel doesn’t care exactly what happens, he has other things

  • on his mind and heads off. But you, dear citizen, want to know how the votes are counted so

  • here goes: Turtle, beloved though he is with some of

  • the citizenry, comes in last place with only 5% and he is eliminated from the race.

  • Because the voters ranked their candidates in order, we can know what would have happened

  • if Turtle didn’t run. Without Turtle, voters like Red Squirrel,

  • would have picked Owl instead, so their votes are transferred to her as though Turtle was

  • never in the race at all. This is why Alternative Vote is sometimes

  • called Instant Runoff Voting. It’s able to simulate a bunch of elections where the

  • least popular candidate is eliminated after each round without all the time and expense

  • it would take to run a bunch of campaigns, one after another.

  • The Alternative Vote method keeps eliminated the least popular candidate until someone

  • either wins a majority or is the only one left.

  • As no one has a majority yet, the next lowest candidate, Tiger, is eliminated. Tiger voters

  • listed leopard as their second choice, so she gets Tiger’s votes.

  • In the last round, Gorilla is eliminated. Gorilla voters listed Owl as their second

  • choice, so Owl gets those votes, wins a majority, so is crowed king.

  • The alternative vote is a better system because it produces winners that a larger number of

  • voters agree on. While the Alternative Vote does have flaws

  • it’s important to note that any problem AV has, first past the post shares.

  • Theyre both susceptible to gerrymandering, they aren’t proportional systems, they can’t

  • guarantee a Condorcet winner (which math geeks hate but there isn’t time to explain here),

  • and over time they both trend toward two main parties.

  • That being said, Alternative Vote has a huge advantage that first past the post lacks and

  • makes it a mathematically superior method: no spoiler effect!

  • Imagine this election: the two big candidates are running, Gorilla and Leopard, and Leopard

  • looks set to win 55% to 45%. But then a third party candidate, Tiger, enters.

  • Tiger manages to convince 15% of the Leopard voters to back him. Now the results are:

  • Under first past the post, gorilla now wins even though a majority of the voters didn’t

  • want him. Under the Alternative Vote, because all Tiger

  • voters put Leopard as second choice, Leopard still wins because a majority of the citizens

  • of the animal kingdom would rather have her in charge than gorilla.

  • With AV citizens can help support and grow smaller parties that they agree without worrying

  • theyll put someone they don’t like into office.

  • After examining the differences, Queen Lion decrees that the Alternative Vote is to be

  • the rule of the land for electing the king and everyone is happier. …well almost everyone.

  • The two big parties can’t be complacent and need to campaign harder for their votes.

  • This has been The Alternative Vote Explained by me C. G. P. Grey.

  • Thank you very much for watching.

Queen Lion of the Animal Kingdom is displeased. She recently introduced elections for the

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代替投票の説明 (The Alternative Vote Explained)

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    稲葉白兎 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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