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  • It's April 10th, 1815, and in just a few moments,

  • the sun is going to disappear.

  • On an island in present-day Indonesia,

  • Mount Tambora erupts with a boom that can be heard over 2,000 kilometers away.

  • Sulfurous plumes of steam and ash billow thousands of meters into the sky,

  • forming dark storm clouds of soot and lightning.

  • This eruption will go down as the largest in recorded history,

  • but, at this point, its impact is only just beginning.

  • Ascending high into the atmosphere,

  • Tambora's emissions spread across the globe,

  • blotting out the sun for almost an entire year.

  • The hazy skies and cold weather of 1816 wreak havoc on agriculture,

  • leading to famines all across the Northern Hemisphere.

  • Nations struggle with epidemics,

  • and artists craft bleak tributes to these seemingly apocalyptic times.

  • This was the year without summer

  • literally one of the darkest periods in human history.

  • So why are some modern researchers looking for ways to repeat it?

  • Obviously, no one wants to replicate this period's famine and despair.

  • But some scientists are interested in using sulfurous haze to block out the sun,

  • and hopefully, slow the effects of global warming.

  • This is one of many proposals in the realm of geoengineering

  • a class of deliberate, large-scale interventions in Earth's natural systems

  • intended to help restrain climate change.

  • Different geoengineering schemes intervene in different systems.

  • Any plans to cool the planet by blocking the amount of sunlight reaching the earth

  • would fall in the category of solar radiation management.

  • Some of these proposals are massive in scale,

  • such as suggestions to create a helpful version of volcanic plumes

  • or build a giant sunshade in Earth's orbit.

  • Others are more limited, focusing on enhancing natural cooling systems.

  • For example, researchers might enlarge marine clouds

  • or make Earth reflect more sunlight by building huge swaths of white surfaces.

  • Many of these plans sound more than a little strange.

  • But there's reason to believe they might work,

  • not least because of natural events like the eruption of Tambora.

  • Scientists know that volcanic eruptions have periodically cooled the climate.

  • Both the Pinatubo eruption in 1991

  • and 1883′s blast of Krakatoa reduced global average temperatures

  • by at least half-a-degree Celsius for up to a year.

  • These cooling effects are global and fast acting

  • but they're also incredibly risky.

  • The Earth is a chaotic system where even the smallest changes

  • can create countless unpredictable ripple effects.

  • We know that cooling temperatures impacts precipitation,

  • extreme weather, and other climate phenomena,

  • but it's difficult for even the most advanced computer models

  • to predict how or where these consequences will occur.

  • One country's solar radiation management

  • might be another country's unnatural disaster,

  • causing extreme weather or crop failures like those following Tambora's eruption.

  • And even if these schemes did safely cool the planet,

  • solar radiation management doesn't address the greenhouse gases

  • that are causing global warming.

  • These solutions are just highly experimental band-aids

  • that the world would have to endure for at least a few decades

  • while we work on actually removing CO2 from the air.

  • And if we pulled that band-aid off prematurely,

  • global temperatures could rapidly rebound,

  • causing a period of intense super warming.

  • For these reasons and more solar radiation management is risky.

  • Today, researchers are running small-scale experiments,

  • such as enhancing marine clouds to protect the Great Barrier Reef

  • from further heating and bleaching.

  • And most scientists agree that we should pursue ways to cut emissions

  • and remove atmospheric CO2 first and foremost.

  • However, there are reasons to keep studying these more aggressive approaches.

  • Desperate times call for desperate measures, and in the future,

  • geoengineering might be civilization's last resort.

  • Furthermore, some of these plans would be shockingly easy to execute

  • by some rogue actor with enough cash.

  • So we'll want to be prepared if someone starts geoengineering

  • without governmental approval.

  • But perhaps the most important reason to investigate the impacts of geoengineering

  • is that people are already making large scale interventions in the atmosphere.

  • In many ways, climate change is an unintended geoengineering project

  • fueled by the emissions

  • generated from centuries of burning fossil fuels.

  • And unless we take action to curb emissions

  • and draw CO2 out of the atmosphere soon,

  • summer may never be the same again.

It's April 10th, 1815, and in just a few moments,

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The year without summer - David Biello

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    shuting1215 に公開 2023 年 05 月 21 日
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