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  • Mhm Hi, I'm john Saarland and this is nightcap.

    Mhm こんにちは、私はジョン・サーランド、こちらはナイトキャップです。

  • The markets are closed but we're just getting started.


  • First up inflation blues, we've been told it's recession or inflation, Is it really that simple then?


  • Crypto, winter is here.


  • We'll explore why you probably shouldn't buy the dip and last self driving cars are driving themselves into other cars.


  • So first up yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that interest rates will be raised 75 basis points in a hail Mary attempt to slow down inflation here.


  • We can see the inflation index, it's going up, we can see that here.


  • Of course, we're all feeling it now.


  • The Feds hope is that increasing interest rates making money more expensive to borrow will slow down the economy.


  • Just enough to lower inflation, but not enough to cause a recession.


  • That's the quote soft landing here to join us is CNN's matt.


  • Egan matt.


  • Hello.


  • Hey john, thanks for having me.


  • So matt, tell us will this soft landing actually work?


  • No one knows john uh that that's you know, the honest answer here?


  • Not even the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, He was asked this question yesterday.


  • You know, do you do you still think that there's a chance for a soft landing?


  • And he said yes, it's possible.


  • But even Powell conceded that it's been made a lot more challenging by the last few months because inflation keeps getting hotter because gasoline prices are at record highs the war in Ukraine china, Covid lockdowns there's all these supply issues so they don't really know whether or not, uh they're gonna be able to get inflation under control uh without causing a recession.


  • I mean I like to think of it as this was basically a fire and the firefighters were late to the scene.


  • The Fed is supposed to be the firefighters, so they didn't really think this was a big deal.


  • They thought the fire would put itself out now.


  • They're they're right now, they're actually calling in reinforcements, They're doing everything they can to put the fire out.


  • But the question is, you know, whether or not they're too late because as you mentioned, if they do too much here, they could end up accidentally slowing the economy right into a recession which would obviously be terrible because then you'd be talking about millions of people losing their jobs and small businesses shutting down so hopefully they're gonna be able to get this right.


  • But it's not gonna be easy here john let's talk about that runaway inflation this week.


  • Deutsche Bank came out with a report about inflation rates throughout the globe and the U.


  • S.


  • Was actually in the middle of the pack there.


  • So why is inflation rising?


  • Not just here, but as we can see in the start, why is it rising seemingly everywhere?


  • Yeah, no doubt this is a global problem as much as politically it's sort of pinned only on the White House and President biden.


  • This is something that um economies around the world are dealing with and I think this is really first because of Covid, I mean we had no inflation actually alarmingly low inflation, believe it or not for many years.


  • And central bankers were really concerned about that even though that sounds amazing right now.


  • But what happened was Covid caused all of these supply problems, supply of workers, supply chains that have been messed up.


  • And then you throw on top of that these shifts in demand.


  • Uh And then the economy goes from crashing and completely shut down to all of a sudden lights back on reopened and it was just too much for the system to handle.


  • So you have Covid, then you have subsequent waves of Covid delta omicron causing you know, other supply issues.


  • And then you throw on top of that the war in Ukraine which is involving Russia is just a commodity superstore.


  • So supply of food and energy out of Russia and Ukraine has been all messed up.


  • And then we can't forget about the fact that In the United States and other countries, we really saw this just incredible unprecedented response to the crisis.


  • Initially in 2020 right central bank doing things that it never did before.


  • Um Congress, the trump administration and the by administration pumping in just massive amounts of stimulus and other countries did this as well.


  • So you put it all together, it was this perfect storm, let's talk about cooling prices.


  • I want to ask you about 11 specific pricing which is housing prices obviously over the last few years, we've seen this huge increase in housing prices, which has accompanied record low mortgage rates.


  • And because of that, housing has become too expensive for a lot of people now, mortgage rates have spiked on the heels of the Fed decision.


  • Do we have a sense of what that will mean for housing prices?


  • Well, we know that demand has been insane for homes, right?


  • Everyone wants to buy home.


  • Part of this was Covid, There's a lot of different factors here.


  • Um but we've already seen that the spike in mortgage rates has driven demand for mortgages down dramatically.


  • And we just learned today that there was the biggest spike in mortgage rates since 1987, they're almost at 6% on average for a 30 year uh fixed rate mortgage.


  • I mean, that's just amazing.


  • Six or seven months ago, they were below 3%.


  • Now they're almost at 6%.


  • And so the higher rates go, the less home that people can afford, right?


  • Because a certain amount of that monthly payment now has to go towards interest, A lot of people who bought homes a year ago would never be able to buy that same home today, because they just wouldn't be able to afford it.


  • So, do that.


  • If supply stays roughly the same demand goes down because of higher mortgage rates, then we couldn't see at least a cooling off of prices, but it's also possible that we could see declines in prices.


  • Maybe not a crash like the one in 2000 and six and seven and eight.


  • Uh but maybe some sort of a cooling off, which wouldn't be the worst thing because right now prices for homes are so high that it is just forcing first time home buyers out of the market and it's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.


  • Whether or not we actually see prices outright decline in the coming months.


  • Matt, thank you.

    マット ありがとうございます。

  • Next up, crypto winter is upon us, prices are falling Celsius, which billed itself as a crypto bank has frozen its users access to their funds and coin base announced it is laying off 20% of its workers.

    次は、暗号の冬が到来し、価格が下落しています。 暗号銀行を自称していたセルシオは、ユーザーの資金へのアクセスを凍結し、コインベースは従業員の20%をレイオフすると発表しました。

  • If you're not sure what any of that means.


  • Well, things are going very badly in the Crypto world this week.


  • Bill Gates came out and said this about crypto obviously expensive.


  • You know, digital images of monkeys are going to improve the world immensely.


  • Have an asset class.


  • It's 100% based on sort of greater fool theory that somebody's going to pay more for it than I do.


  • I'm not involved in that.


  • I'm not long or short any of those things.


  • Our guest is CNN's Allison morrow.


  • First off Allison, this is our first night cap show and you of course.


  • Right, CNN's nightcap newsletter so welcome.


  • Any advice now would be the time to give it oh, you're doing great.


  • This is a very exciting time for us.


  • Well let's talk about Bill Gates, let's talk about crypto.


  • I want to ask your thoughts about this.


  • Read we because we've seen crypto prices plummet, we've seen layoffs, we've seen Celsius um uh and and you know, hold its users funds and when you talk to pro crypto people right, they say that oh this has happened before, right.


  • Bitcoin and crypto crashed in 2017 people wrote wrote Bitcoins obituary and then in 2020 crypto boomed.


  • Right, what do you say?


  • Yeah, what a week.


  • Right.


  • I mean we've seen kind of a wild swing down, which is nothing new for crypto.


  • I mean we're kind of used to seeing this at this point.


  • The difference now uh in 2022 is how big and mainstream the industry has become.


  • I mean so many people bought into it, especially during the pandemic when people report at home and they had extra funds in their bank accounts and they thought oh what's this crypto thing that everyone's buzzing about.


  • And so now a lot of those people unfortunately are looking their wounds this week and praying for a rebound, which you know in the history of crypto is likely to come but it might be a painful stretch before they see the dip go back up.


  • You know, I think when we see these crypto crashes happen.


  • I think there's a lot of schadenfreude from, you know, the so called no coiner is the people who don't have crypto.


  • And we've known obviously about crypto fomo who hasn't felt that, but this kind of is like the inverse of that, where it's like a relief of missing out a Romo.


  • I don't know if that's a term, but but I like when when crypto crashes, it's not, you know, there's the apes and the that have crashed and that's funny and well good.


  • But there's a real human cost here when this stuff crashes, right?


  • Oh yeah.


  • I mean you can go on Twitter right now and see plenty of crypto skeptics dunking on the crypto faithful and the people who have been saying that this is the future, this is Web three, you know.


  • Uh and that that sentiment goes both ways when when it's a bull market and crypto is doing well, you'll see plenty of crypto people saying, you know, have fun being poor to people who have not invested in crypto or who don't believe in it.


  • Uh So this week.


  • Uh It's important to remember that there are actual human beings behind some of these losses and and that's really painful.


  • You know, coin based as you mentioned, laid off 1800 workers are no, sorry 1100 workers.


  • Um and a lot of those people are reading found out from social media because they missed the email from their ceo and they were completely blindsided by this.


  • So you've got a whole industry now that's suffering and that's jobs, that's people, uh not to mention investors who got in when the going was good during the pandemic and the swing up until about november of last year.


  • And now they're just watching it fall.


  • You know, you also mentioned Celsius, a lot of those people can't get their money out.


  • They've plowed their savings into it and and now it's kind of in limbo and they don't know when they're gonna be able to get their money back.


  • So there's a real human toll here and it's important to remember that um, you know, this is such a young industry uh, and it's completely unregulated.


  • So there's not a lot of recourse when these kinds of things happen and these blowups lose money for people.


  • Allison, thank you.

    アリソン ありがとうございます。

  • Thank you.


  • Next up, a new government report revealed that Tesla vehicles running on self driving mode have been involved in 273 reported crashes over the past nine months that 70% of total crashes involving cars using advanced driver assist technology.


  • So what does this tell us about the future of driving joining us to talk about?


  • This is CNN's Peter valdes Dapena Peter Hello?


  • Hello.


  • Uh, I want to make an important distinction there, right at the top.


  • These cars use advanced driver assistance systems which are expected to help the driver hold the car on their lane follow cars in front of them, stuff like that.


  • So this isn't really a full self driving confusingly.


  • No, though the same report did include numbers from companies like Waymo that are actually working on full self driving, which is where, you know, in the future they hope people can just get in the car, sit in the backseat and literally let the car drive itself.


  • But these are, these are different things and we don't wanna for for safety's sake, if nothing else, we don't want to get these things confused.


  • Right?


  • I remember when I drove it for the first time and you have to put your hands on every eight seconds or something like that.


  • I was I was very impressed though, but but give us some context about these numbers, right?


  • I mean, it says 70% of these crashes are Tesla cars, but do we have a sense of how many self driving vehicles out there are Tesla?


  • How many of these people?


  • That's the thing we do know even Nitsa has said, be careful, don't try to draw any conclusions from these numbers because they're super messy Most of them by for most of the vehicles on the road today with these kinds of advanced driver assistance systems are Tesla and its autopilot system.


  • That's the vast majority of them out there.


  • So is 273 crashes a lot compared to other companies.


  • Well, we don't know other companies don't have as many of these vehicles out there with these advanced driver assistance systems.


  • So it's hard to say.


  • Um 273 sounds like a lot of lot of vehicles, but there's, you know, some about 800,000, some huge number of autopilot vehicles out there and people use them and, and this is something that has been concerned about.


  • Some people do misuse them, some people do over rely on these systems and try to treat them like genuine self driving when they're not.


  • And that is something that needs, is investigating and has really been concerned about.


  • The big question for me isn't whether self driving cars will get into accidents right, but it's whether self driving cars will get into accidents less than human driven cars from this data.


  • Do we have any sense right now of how actually safe self driving cars are at the moment from this data?


  • Well, from other data, we already know that some types of driver assistance systems, like for example, automatic emergency braking has genuinely reduced rear end collisions, We know that so some of these systems can help remember automatic driver assistance systems are a combination of different systems, some that keep you in your lane, some that break for you, some that operate the accelerator for you, they're all separate but work together.


  • So some of these systems, we do know we don't have enough data yet.


  • Certainly we don't know from this report that it's a just released whether advanced driver assistance systems overall are safer or worse than human drivers.


  • A lot of it depends on like a lot of technology, how it gets used.


  • If people understand how they work, they probably can be helpful if people over rely on them, don't watch the road and just think, oh, I can quit and check out and not drive because the system's got it for me then that's dangerous.


  • And last a new tradition.


  • Our subreddit of the week here is our slash we want plates devoted to restaurants deciding that they don't need plates like this grilled cheese on a hook or this dessert served on a sandal Of course.

    今週のSubRedditは、フックの上のチーズ焼きやサンダルの上のデザートなど、レストランが必要としない皿に捧げるスラッシュ「we want plates」です。

  • Then there's this ice cream that has been described as a quote pile of garbage.


  • It seems like the rule now is the more money you pay the less plate you get.


  • That looks delicious.


  • And with that I'm john Saarland, Thank you for watching.


Mhm Hi, I'm john Saarland and this is nightcap.

Mhm こんにちは、私はジョン・サーランド、こちらはナイトキャップです。