...but the election of French president Emmanuel Macron...

...seemed to signal its resounding defeat at least in France

But five years on, as the country heads to the polls once again, the French are fed up

Normally this despondency spells defeat for sitting presidents

But Macron is leading in all the polls

So why are the French so miserable?

It’s market day in Auxerre, a town about 200km south-east of Paris

Auxerre is a typical provincial city in France, but is also a bellwether

It’s backed the winner in every French presidential race for 40 years

And in 2022 there’s only one victor in sight

In 2017, Emmanuel Macron swept to power with a party that was little more than a year old

At 39, he was the youngest president in French history

He promised to unite the country and proposed sweeping reforms

His term in office has been turbulent, rocked by national and international events

But on Macron’s watch, France has also become more entrepreneurial and business-friendly

Incomes have risen and unemployment has dropped

Faced with the pandemic, his stimulus package helped deliver the strongest economic growth...

...since the late 1960s, ensuring a quick recovery to pre-pandemic levels

No surprise then, that Macron has been odds on to return to power...

...since The Economist began to forecast this year’s election

You can see our latest prediction by clicking on the link

But in Auxerre, the market shoppers don’t exactly seem overjoyed at the prospect

Gallic grumpiness may not seem a surprise

Some argue pessimism is part of the French psyche

There’s even a French word for it–

With the war in Ukraine, the cost of living post-pandemic and rising fuel prices...

...perhaps there is reason for much of the rich world to feel gloomy right now

But for the French this discontent runs deeper

A recent survey found that three-quarters of them thought France was in decline

For market traders like farmer Denis Chatelain, business is good...

...but he’s still fed up.

And it’s the president who bears the brunt of his anger

His farm on the outskirts of Auxerre is only a two-hour drive from Paris...

...but to Denis it’s a world away from the seat of the French presidency

As he sees it, Macron’s policies...

...have really been about looking after business leaders and shareholders

It’s not unusual for the French to blame their woes on whoever is president...

...it comes with the territory for leaders...

...who get to exercise the huge power that is bestowed on that office

But the mood in Auxerre points to a sense of disconnection that is not just political

Auxerre is in a sparsely populated band of France known as the “diagonale du vide”...

...or empty diagonal

Like many mid-sized French towns, it suffers from industrial decline...

...and with no fast train to Paris, its population is effectively cut off...

...from the job opportunities in France’s big urban centres

It was in places like Auxerre, where people rely on their cars...

...that the gilets jaunes or yellow vest movement sprung from in 2018

Originally a protest against a tax rise on petrol and diesel...

...that transformed into a wider anti-government rebellion...

...today the movement has somewhat dissipated

But many former members are still taking to the street to air other grievances

It’s this group’s 35th weekly protest in a row...

...this time against France’s covid restrictions

In an effort to get more people vaccinated...

...Macron banned many employees in customer-facing roles from working...

...unless they were jabbed

A policy which angered many

As with immigration and taxation...

...it’s another issue that has been taken up with relish by France’s populist politicians...

...deepening the divide in French society

More than 50% of voters say they’d vote for a populist candidate...

...in the first round of the election

Such is the support for populist parties that two different hard-right candidates...

...have helped define this year’s election

Marine Le Pen who faced Macron in the second round in 2017...

...and newcomer Eric Zemmour...

...a former journalist who was recently convicted for inciting racial hatred

Emmanuel Bertrand is Zemmour’s local co-ordinator in the region...

Today he and his team are door-knocking in Chablis...

...a town 20km outside

of Auxerre

Zemmour set up the Reconquest party just a few months ago...

...with a promise to slash immigration and taxes

It’s a blend that initially proved potent on the doorstep, tapping into a nostalgic

idea of France

Even if it’s now started to go a little flat

Zemmour—and to a greater extent—Le Pen’s popularity...

...points to the depth of the geographical divide in France, already apparent five years

ago

In the second round of the 2017 election, Auxerre voted for Macron

But the further away from the city you go the higher the vote for Le Pen

This same dynamic can be seen around urban centres throughout the country

In 2022, Auxerre offers another, less scientific, way of reading the state of

the nation

Grégoire Courtois runs an independent bookshop in Auxerre...

...and in the last few years he’s noticed a town that’s become increasingly disillusioned

Macron came to power at the head of a centrist movement...

...that took widespread support from the Republicans and the Socialists...

...the established parties of the mainstream right and left

Neither has fully recovered

In a recent survey, 30% of those who are considering voting for Macron...

...say it’s by default rather than choice, as no other candidate convinces them

Under the cover of darkness, Auxerre’s elusive Macron supporters are out postering

If he does win again it would be a symbolic moment...

...the first French president for 20 years to win a second term

And it would put him in good stead to introduce new reforms

But with a fed-up population, unimpressed by its president...

...there may be questions over the strength of his mandate

This could spell trouble when the political mood of the French public turns even gloomier

For Macron, however hard-fought this election becomes...

...winning it may prove to be the easy part

If you’d like to see more about our forecast for the 2022 French Elections...

...click the link

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