Name: Is It Too Late To Stop Climate Change? Well, it's Complicated.
Uploaded: 2022-03-17T10:46:28.000Z
Duration: 10 min 7 s

程度の副詞

様態の副詞

Only graphs that get more and more red and angry.

Almost every year breaks some horrible record,

毎年のように悲惨な記録更新があり

急速な気候変動は 温室効果ガスの放出によるとわかっていた

We've known for decades that rapid climate change has been caused by the release of greenhouse gases.

But instead of reducing them, in 2019 the world was emitting 50% more CO₂ than in the year 2000.

2019年の世界のCO₂排出量は 2000年に比べて50％も増加した

Why is that? Why is it so hard to just stop emitting these gases?

なぜ、温室効果ガスの排出を止める というだけのことが困難なのか

Our collective CO₂ emissions can be expressed as a product of four factors and their relationship with each other.

人類の排出するCO2は4つの要素と それらの相互作用で表現できる

Two of them explain why worldwide CO₂ emissions are still rising, and two explain how we can stop that.

うち２つは排出量が増加し続ける理由を

Population Size, Economic Growth, Energy Intensity, and Emissions pere Energy unit produced.

他の２つは排出を抑える方法を説明する

エネルギーの経済効率とエネルギーあたり排出量だ

And they demand luxury products from iPhones to one dollar cheeseburgers

iPhoneや1ドルのチーズバーガーといった贅沢も

The global population is growing, and according to the UN it will level off at about 11 billion in 2100, which is 40% more than today.

人口が多いほど、CO2排出も増える

The only way to slow down this growth is investment in healthcare, and access to contraception and education in developing countries.

But even with massive investment, it will take a few decades for the effects of lower birthrates to manifest themselves,

世界人口は増加しており 国連によると2100年に110億人でピークとなる

so the global population will keep growing for the foreseeable future,

and, as a consequence, global CO₂ emissions rise over the next few decades.

人口増加を遅らせるには 途上国での医療への投資、避妊と教育の普及が不可欠だ

しかし、大規模な投資を仮定しても 出生率の変化には数十年を要する

人口は当面の間、増え続けるだろう

The richer and more developed we are, the more emissions our lifestyle produces.

その結果、CO2排出は今後数十年間も増え続けるだろう

A programmer in the US has a higher CO₂ footprint than 50 farmers in Uganda.

【要素2. 成長（より豊かになること）】

The world's wealth is growing almost everywhere.

And although it's far from easily distrubuted, economic growth has led to the highest standards of living, and the largest reduction in extreme poverty in human history.

発展し豊かになるほど排出量は増加する

Growth has become the dominant mantra of the world's economies, no matter what kind of political system they have.

アメリカのプログラマーは ウガンダの農家の50人分のCO2を排出している

It's unlikely that rich countries will give up the concept of growth any time soon.

世界中、ほぼ全てで冨は増しており

But even if they were to, developing countries want to become rich too

For billions of people, the end of growth would probably mean staying poor

and so developing countries are not willing to stop growing their economies.

極度の貧困の大幅削減をもたらした

All in all, we can agree that growth as a guiding economic ideology is not going to go away any time soon.

経済成長は支配的なスローガンで

More countries and their citizens around the world will grow and become richer while the rich economies will continue to grow their wealth.

There are some signs that growth can be decoupled from CO₂ emissions but we're not close to that yet.

豊かな国は、”成長”概念を 簡単には手放さないだろう

As a consequence of this growth, CO₂ emissions will rise.

しかし、途上国だって豊かさを切望している

Ok, so far we've learned that because of population growth and economic growth, humanity's CO₂ emissions will increase.

数十億人にとって 脱成長は貧しさにとどまることで

...which is the opposite of what should be happening.

途上国も経済成長を止めたくはない

We need to slow, peak, and then reduce annual emissions.

結局、経済成長というイデオロギーは すぐには無くならない

The next two factors describe how we can actually do this.

多くの国家、市民が豊かさを手に入れ

すでに豊かだった人々も冨を増やし続ける

Energy intensity describes how efficiently we use energy.

成長とCO2排出を切り離せる兆しもあるが すぐに実現はしない

A street food vendor in rural Brazil might burn coal to cook...

だから経済成長の結果 CO2排出は増加するのだ

while a street food vendor in France might use an induction stove powered by nuclear energy.

さて、人口増加と経済成長が CO2排出を増やすことを学んだ

これとは逆のことが起こるべきで

The more efficient something is, the less energy we need to do something.

排出を減らし、減少傾向に入る必要がある

Be it powering a metropolitan area, or grilling a kebab.

次の2要素は排出削減の実現方法に関わる

So making our technology more efficient, and coming up with more efficient ways to organise our societies

is one of the most important ways to reduce the modern world's CO₂ dependancy.

エネルギー強度とは利用の経済効率をさす

This can mean everything from reducing power consumption with A.I.,

ブラジルの田舎では石炭で調理し

the electrification of the transportation and industrial sectors,

一方フランスの屋台はIHコンロで 電力は原発由来かも

The opportunities for improvement are almost limitless,

効率が良いほど、必要なエネルギーは少なく済む

大都市の電力供給でも、ケバブを焼くのでも

But we know that increasing efficiency alone will not be enough,

だから技術の効率化や 低炭素社会の構築方法の検討は

現代のCO2依存度を減らすための 最重要手段の一つだ

これはAIを用いた消費電力の削減や

This means that once something becomes more efficient, it's used more,

輸送業界や工業部門の電化、 持続可能なコンクリートなどが含まれる

and so overall, the increased efficiency does not lead to a reduction as impressive as you would first think.

改善の機会は無数にあり 人間の創造性が大暴れするかも

...or worse, sometimes more efficiency makes humans use not *less* of a resource,

ただし、効率上昇だけでは不十分で それには3つの理由がある

When planes became more fuel-efficient, ticket prices decreased, and more people started to travel by plane.

これは、効率化されたものの利用頻度があがり

So making things more efficient does not automatically mean less energy use in total.

全体としては思ったほどの削減に つながらないという現象だ

それどころか、効率化の結果が "減少"ではなく"増加"の場合すらある

飛行機の燃費が改善されると、代金が下がり 旅行での利用が増加した

Sometimes when you save money on a thing that becomes more efficient, you might spend it elsewhere.

だから効率化とエネルギー総量の減少は イコールではなく

For example, if you buy a more fuel-efficient car,

you save money on fuel, and end up with extra funds in your bank account...

...that you might spend on vacation, and take a flight with.

効率化によってお金を節約できると

So in the end, you might actually emit more CO₂

例えば、燃費のいい車を買ったなら

燃料代を節約でき、増えた貯金で

休暇を取り、飛行機でどこかに行くかも

the harder and more expensive it becomes to get more efficient.

結局、燃費のいい車を手に入れたのに CO2排出が増えている可能性まである

So, over time, the return on investment slows down.

理由3. 費用対効果の低下 エネルギー効率の最適化に伴い 改善は困難で、コストが高くなる

And, with many technologies, we are already pretty efficient.

時間とともに、投資効率が低下していく

But, regardless of how efficient we make our economies,

そして多くの技術では すでにかなり高効率なのだ

as long as we need at least some energy, we will have emissions.

そもそも、どれだけ効率を上げようとも エネルギーを必要とする限り、排出は避けられない

Efficiency alone won't create a zero-carbon world.

効率化だけでは脱炭素社会の構築は不可能だ

Number 4: CO₂ emissions per energy unit used, or "Our Global Carbon Footprint".

【要素4. エネルギーあたりCO2排出量】 あるいはグローバル・カーボン・フットプリントだ

それは単位エネルギーあたりのCO2排出量のことで

is the CO₂ released per energy unit generated.

例えば石炭発電所は太陽光発電と比べ エネルギーあたりCO2排出量ははるかに大きい

For example, coal plants release much much more CO₂

化石燃料を燃やすほど排出は増える

The more fossil fuels we burn, the higher our CO₂ output.

もちろん、石炭と石油を一晩止めつつ、 社会を混乱させないことは不可能だ

Fossil fuels are the greatest lever humanity has right now.

だが現実には、化石燃料の採掘を留めるための 低炭素な代替手段すら、利用していない

Of course, it's impossible to shut down coal and oil overnight

化石燃料からの移行を加速するため、 ２つの行動が必要だ

第一に、最新の技術を取り入れる必要がある

But the reality is, that we're not doing nearly enough to keep fossil fuels in the ground

ただちに実行できる内容がたくさんある

We need to do 2 things to speed the transition away from fossil fuels.

化石燃料産業への補助金を削減し

First, we need to use the real leverage we have today, with today's technology

その分を自然エネルギーに投資したり

There are a lot of things we can do extremely quickly.

CO2排出に重税を課し、年々金額をあげていけば 移行への強い動機づけになる

We can leave nuclear power plants online longer.

エネルギー効率や、新規の建築物に 厳しい基準を設けることもできる