are going to be very low for just about forever.

This is a chart of 10-year, 10-year Treasury forwards,

which shows what investors think 10-year Treasury rates are

going to be in 10 years' time.

As you can see, the indicator is up against its all-time lows.

This is important in large part because sustained low interest

rates are so often cited as the crucial justification

for today's very high stock prices.

After all, investors who need returns

have little choice but to buy stocks.

So what could upset this near universal consensus

around low rates forever?

Inflation is the obvious choice as it

would force bond yields up to prevent returns

from going deeply negative.

Now given the Covid-19 crisis, which

has slowed economic activity so much,

the immediate threat is deflation, not inflation.

But at the same time, take a look

at the sheer amount of money that government

monetary and fiscal stimulus has forced into the US economy.

Classically, such a vast money dump

would suggest that inflation was right around the corner.

Indeed, we did see a spike of inflation

in July, though investors have shrugged this off

as a one-off event caused by technical factors.

Some dissident economists argue, however,

that when the crisis passes, all that government stimulus

combined with the return of demand

along with political and demographic changes

around the world will lead to a return of high inflation.

That's something to think about for stock market investors

because the stocks that have benefited most from falling

rates are the high-growth tech stocks like Amazon, Apple,

and Netflix.

These stocks almost single handedly

have powered the recent rally.

If that reverses in an inflationary world,

markets are going to tremble.