字幕表 動画を再生する
-
The Coronavirus pandemic is putting an end to the longest economic
-
expansion in U.S.
-
history. We are going into a global recession.
-
We're in an economic downturn.
-
The world is now in recession.
-
Recession in the next quarter or two because everything is shutting down of
-
course. As millions of us remain under orders to stay home, factories have
-
closed and businesses have shut down.
-
Entire parts of the U.S.
-
economy are at a complete standstill.
-
This is an extraordinary disruption.
-
It's almost like a meteor hit the entire planet.
-
And we have to now deal with the fact that we've been knocked off our
-
axis. The Federal Reserve and Congress are taking extraordinary steps to
-
try to keep the economy afloat.
-
Still, economists warn this recession will be unlike other downturns in
-
recent history because it was spawned by a health crisis, not by an
-
unhealthy economy.
-
We may well be in recession, but again, I would point to the difference
-
between this and a normal recession.
-
This isn't, there's nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy.
-
So why is the coronavirus pandemic causing a recession and how long will it
-
last? In technical terms, economies enter a recession after
-
two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
-
Now the U.S. government isn't scheduled to release first quarter GDP data
-
until the end of April and second quarter data until July.
-
So it'll be a while before the official verdict is in.
-
But many economists are already predicting double digit declines in GDP
-
growth in the second quarter of the year.
-
The biggest quarterly decline we've seen an annualized GDP growth was in
-
1950 and that was 10 percent.
-
Most estimates now are for well over 10 percent.
-
This is probably gonna be the worst we've ever seen.
-
Based on a range of other indicators, many economists agree the U.S.
-
has already entered a recession.
-
The first place we can see recessions signals is in the jobs market.
-
Industries like retail restaurants, air travel and hotels had laid off
-
thousands of workers as business has stopped.
-
Nearly 10 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance claims during
-
the final two weeks in March, the highest level on record after they were
-
let go from their jobs as their employers dealt with the impacts of the
-
virus. Some economists predict the unemployment rate could spike from
-
three and a half percent in February to 15 percent by the middle of the
-
year. The labor market is really a reflection of the broader economy, and
-
we're seeing a lot of signs that we're having a massive increase in
-
unemployment. Surveys of businesses and consumers are also pointing to a
-
recession. One March survey found U.S.
-
companies reported the steepest downturn in economic activity since 2009.
-
Both the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy tumbled.
-
Some companies were already suffering from a supply shock after China shut
-
down factories earlier this year because of the Coronavirus.
-
Now, the U.S. economy is also suffering from a lack of demand as consumers
-
stay home. This drop in demand is reflected in the price of oil, which is
-
near its lowest level in nearly two decades.
-
Meanwhile, wild swings in the stock market also have Americans worried
-
about their savings and retirement accounts.
-
There's no way to sort of even get the calculus on how big of a disruption
-
this is, because it's really bringing the major parts of the U.S.
-
economy to a virtual standstill.
-
Some economists are looking to alternative sources of data to gauge the
-
economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic.
-
One early indicator is consumer spending at restaurants.
-
This chart shows restaurant reservations through open table in five
-
countries, including the U.S.
-
declined 100 percent during two weeks in March.
-
Consumer spending is over two thirds of the U.S.
-
economy. You knock out the consumer and you knock down the economy in an
-
extraordinary way. We're not only knocking out the consumer, we're
-
shutting down factories.
-
There is no precedent for a crisis like this.
-
These dire economic forecasts and dramatic moves in the stock market have
-
led some to believe this crisis could be worse than the financial crisis
-
that started in 2007 or maybe even than the Great Depression.
-
Depressions last much longer than recessions.
-
The Great Depression went on for more than a decade.
-
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke studied the Great Depression
-
extensively and says the Coronavirus crisis is different.
-
This has some of the same feel, some of the feel of panic, some of the feel
-
of volatility that you're talking about.
-
But it's it's really it's much closer to a major snowstorm or natural
-
disaster than it is to a classic 1930s style depression.
-
The main reason this economic downturn is different than many others is
-
that it's not the result of instability in the financial system like we
-
saw in the banking sector in the 1930s, the dot com bust in the 2000s or
-
the housing sector in the mid-2000s.
-
Instead, it's the result of measures needed to contain a health crisis
-
like social distancing and isolation.
-
The most important differences this comes out of the real economy,
-
something biological.
-
And people's choices with responding to that and not out of financial
-
excess. In the words of the current Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell
-
there was no fundamental problem with the economy when the virus hit.
-
This is a situation where people are being asked to step back from economic
-
activity, close their businesses, stay home from work.
-
Many economists say the challenge is to prevent the coronavirus health
-
crisis from turning into a prolonged financial crisis.
-
The risk is that a health crisis, something that through small businesses
-
out of business overnight, something that threw workers, millions of
-
workers out of work overnight.
-
A health crisis could become a Great Depression if we don't deal with it
-
now and provide that support to get through this period of time and have a
-
recovery on the other side.
-
Policymakers in Washington have taken big steps to try to reduce the
-
economic harm of the Coronavirus pandemic.
-
On March 15th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero.
-
It also announced it would buy $700 billion in treasuries and mortgage
-
backed securities in an attempt to push down longer term rates.
-
As the central bank has continued to buy more assets since then, the value
-
of its balance sheet exceeded five trillion dollars for the first time
-
ever. They have cut the cost of funding about as low as it can go, and
-
hopefully that does translate into lower mortgage rates, lower auto loan
-
rates and things that should help the economy when we get to the other
-
side of this of this hump.
-
The Fed has also launched emergency programs to make sure other central
-
banks and financial institutions have enough cash on hand.
-
The first and most important thing they're doing is providing dollar
-
liquidity. So not just in the U.S., but around the world.
-
When there's a crisis of real crisis, people want to have dollar cash on
-
hand. The Fed's actions are mainly intended to keep credit markets running
-
smoothly so that the economy can bounce back once the pandemic ends.
-
There are limits to what the central bank can do while consumers and
-
businesses are on lockdown.
-
No one's going to open houses right now.
-
No one's going to auto dealer lots.
-
But if those rates stay low, when when we can all leave our houses in the
-
summertime, hopefully, you know, then maybe you will be more incentivized
-
to buy that car or that house.
-
You can't force the economy to grow through this means.
-
That's why every central banker from Jay Powell on down is saying you need
-
fiscal policy right now.
-
Congress is in charge of that fiscal response.
-
At the end of March, lawmakers passed a record 2 trillion dollar stimulus
-
package. It included direct payments to individuals, additional
-
unemployment insurance benefits, loans for small businesses and funding
-
for industries like airlines.
-
I think what they have done has been a good a good first step, but they
-
should be prepared to do more.
-
Economists say the action that policymakers take now will help determine
-
how long the coronavirus recession lasts and how quickly the U.S.
-
economy can recover.
-
Many agree that the first step on the road to recovery is containing the
-
spread of the virus.
-
If you can get the biology under control, then the economy can start to
-
recover. Some like to think of economic recessions and recoveries in terms
-
of the letters V U or L.
-
V is a quick rebound in growth where consumer and business activity
-
surges after a downturn.
-
U means a slightly longer downturn followed by a recovery.
-
L is the worst case scenario, a long, slow recovery like the one we saw
-
from the financial crisis.
-
Goldman Sachs, for example, predicts a V-shaped recovery from the
-
coronavirus, with GDP dropping as much as 34 percent in the second quarter
-
and rebounding 19 percent in the third quarter.
-
This will be a very deep recession in terms of GDP loss and job loss.
-
And the question is, when we get to the other side and when the virus
-
passes, how you know, how fast to how speedy is the recovery.
-
Businesses' abilities to stay solvent while they're closed is one factor
-
that will affect the shape of the recovery.
-
Another factor is how quickly Americans who are laid off will be able to
-
get their jobs back. And if the relief from policymakers will be enough to
-
get them through prolonged uncertainty.
-
There's also the question of how quickly consumers are willing to go back
-
to their normal activities even after the virus has been contained.
-
Nothing is going to force the people of the world to suddenly start flying
-
airplanes again. Nothing's going to force the people of the world to
-
suddenly start crowding into stadiums again.
-
Some are raising alarms that Congress and the Fed are risking another
-
crisis by increasing debt and deficits with their stimulus measures.
-
But as the human costs of the pandemic continues to mount, policymakers
-
and economists say that the focus for now should be on providing relief to
-
workers and to companies so that the economy can bounce back.
-
You can't put this in the framework of other recessions.
-
This is hitting us on so many different sides and could metastasize into
-
something that is literally viral for the economy as well, and that the
-
whole point is to survive this and come out healthy on the other side.