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  • [GONG]

  • LUKE WROBLEWSKI: Sorry.

  • It's not that often you find a gong behind you somewhere.

  • Like how often does that happen?

  • So you sort of have to take advantage of it.

  • Usually the sound I make when I start a presentation is a

  • little bit more like this.

  • [WHOOSHING SOUND]

  • LUKE WROBLEWSKI: That's a sound of the future, in case

  • you guys aren't familiar.

  • You may think the synthesizer is the sound of the future,

  • but that was the sound of the future in the '60s.

  • So today, that's what the future sounds like.

  • And what the future looks like these days is it

  • looks pretty small.

  • Oooh, foreshadowing.

  • But when you start talking about small things like

  • mobile, I actually think these things have a really, really

  • big impact, which is what I want to dive into today and

  • kind of talk about some of the ways we can manage what's

  • going on with mobile.

  • Look towards making great

  • experiences for mobile devices.

  • But at the same time, instead of using these things as they

  • exist today, really look towards what's possible going

  • forward through some of these experiences.

  • So I mentioned mobile is sort of a small thing.

  • But to kick off, I want to talk about a very big thing,

  • which is this idea of mass media.

  • So what's mass media?

  • It's any technology you can use to communicate with lots

  • and lots of people.

  • And you guys should be familiar with

  • these sorts of things.

  • The first form of mass media to hit our planet was print.

  • There's a bunch of different pieces around you.

  • There's some on the walls.

  • There's posters in here.

  • There's books, magazines.

  • This was the first way that our planet was able to take a

  • message and get it to many, many people across the world.

  • And print was around for a long, long time.

  • That was like around 1500.

  • It wasn't around until 1890 that the next form of mass

  • media came out, which is recordings.

  • So LaserDiscs, you guys probably have

  • a LaserDisc, right?

  • MiniDisc?

  • One MiniDisc player?

  • DAT tapes?

  • Wow, I'm dating myself.

  • After recording, cinema.

  • So we went to being able to share audio to now we can

  • actually share moving pictures.

  • Ten years after that, radio.

  • Now we can actually broadcast those audio signals.

  • So after this couple hundred year period of all we had was

  • print, all we had was print, every 10 years or so,

  • something new is coming out and really changing things.

  • And we think we live in exciting times now with the

  • internet and with self-driving cars and laser planes that

  • create 3D models of buildings.

  • Imagine if you were alive here and all of a sudden

  • recordings came out.

  • And all of a sudden, cinema came out.

  • And then radio, like audio moving through the air.

  • I don't know what the equivalent of the 1800s--

  • your brain popped or whatever.

  • What is it?

  • Blew my mind.

  • I don't know what they said back then, but they probably

  • thought it a lot.

  • Radio stuck around a long time.

  • That was around 1910.

  • It was about 40, maybe 45, years until the next form of

  • mass media came out, which is television.

  • And television also had a decent run, because it was

  • around 1990 or so that the internet really came out and

  • became the sixth form of mass media.

  • And nobody will really argue that the internet is a form of

  • mass media, a means to communicate with

  • lots and lots of people.

  • But there's a theory that came out from an ex-Nokia executive

  • called Tomi Ahonen, and he said mobile is the seventh

  • form of mass media to hit our planet.

  • And to me, this has really profound implications.

  • Because when we start to think about doing things like

  • designing for mobile or designing for the small

  • screen, this is sort of the association we have.

  • How do we take our internet-y things, our software-y things

  • and fit them onto these smaller devices, if you will,

  • these portable devices?

  • Now that's one way we could look at the issue.

  • But if we look at it at the scale of a transition from

  • something like radio to TV or transition like something from

  • TV to the internet, I think it's fundamentally a much,

  • much bigger deal and has a lot more implications.

  • As a result, it's worth looking at, is mobile really

  • the seventh form of mass media?

  • Or is Tomi smoking Nokia crack, which there's very

  • precious little of left these days, if you guys follow the

  • stock price?

  • So to understand if something is really the next form of

  • mass media-- is it really that big and important--

  • let's look at something small like babies.

  • This is how many babies come out every day on the planet.

  • So we figured out that algorithm.

  • I think it was a Google Project that

  • figured out that algorithm.

  • Aagh.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • LUKE WROBLEWSKI: Unfortunately, this is how

  • many iPhones come out per day.

  • And I blame you guys for this one, but this is how many

  • Android devices are activated per day.

  • Add in the total number of iPod Touches and iPads, add in

  • the dwindling number of Nokias and the uber-dwindling number

  • of BlackBerry devices--

  • I feel so bad.

  • I feel like I still have to include them.

  • But every time you look at one of these charts, they're just

  • getting squeezed by iOS and Android.

  • So let's do the math.

  • How many is that?

  • It's like three million plus mobile devices entering the

  • planet per day.

  • When I started doing this sort of bit

  • around kids versus devices--

  • a year ago, I sort of put together a blog post comparing

  • how many kids are born per day to the amount of mobile

  • devices entering the planet-- it was about a million.

  • Over the course of the year, that number has gone up by

  • another two million.

  • So now it's an order of magnitude difference.

  • 300,000 children entering the planet per day compared to

  • three million devices entering the planet per day.

  • And because there's so many of these things coming out, the

  • rate at which they're spreading is tremendous.

  • The way that they hit mass market

  • penetration, if you will--

  • how long it takes for 40% of the US audience to have one.

  • Telephone took about 40 years.

  • Electricity and the computer, which you would think

  • everybody would want to electricity as soon as

  • possible, took about 15 years.

  • Radio, mobile phone, internet, again, some of these really

  • transformative things, took about five years.

  • But the fastest growing technology ever to hit mass

  • market penetration in the United States has been the

  • smartphone.

  • Took roughly three and a half years.

  • Right now, it's at 58% of the addressable audience in the

  • United States has a smartphone.

  • And it continues to grow.

  • It'll probably continue to grow until you hit saturation,

  • where every feature phone turns into a smartphone.

  • And that's not a lot of time to figure out

  • what to do with mobile.

  • Three and a half years is not the kind of opportunity the

  • telegraph companies had to figure out the telephone.

  • They had 40 years.

  • And the impact of this is if you look at what used to

  • happen in the personal computing market, this is what

  • personal computing market share looked like in

  • the first 15 years.

  • Anybody remember the TRS-80?

  • It had a tape deck.

  • So you guys remember TRS-80, but you

  • don't remember MiniDiscs?

  • Come on.

  • Talking to geeks here.

  • Eight-track?

  • Anybody remember an eight-track?

  • OK.

  • Thank you.

  • Geez.

  • Commodore Amiga, Atari.