Name: コロナウイルスとスペイン風邪の違い w:マイケル・オスターホルム｜ジョー・ローガン (The Differences Between the Coronavirus and the Spanish Flu w:Michael Osterholm | Joe Rogan)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:37:11.000Z
Duration: 6 min 59 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：新型コロナウイルス,新型肺炎,COVID-19

Theo Gero gun experience for the average person, that is Ah, sitting around reading these articles that say Don't worry or readings.

Are there these articles that say this is the end of humanity?

And what did they do if they get infected?

Well, first of all, neither of those kind of articles are correct, and we have to make sure that we get that message out to people that it's their We need straight talk right now, you know, And part of it is it's so hard you hear from people exposed experts, what's this gonna happen or not happen?

You know, uh and let me just give you an example because we've heard a lot about Well, it's gonna go away with the crime of the Corona virus with the seasons, OK, when it warms up, it'll go away.

Well, you know the other Corona viruses that we have that we've had to worry about with SARS, which appeared in 2003 in China, and when that came out of China in February 2003 it took a little while to figure out that these people really aren't that infectious till day five or six of their illness, and then they really crash and burn in many, um, would I, um But what we did was basically by knowing that identify these cases in their contacts quickly.

So if they had symptoms brought him in, put him in these isolation rooms so they wouldn't infect anybody else.

And it took until June toe bring out of her control that had nothing do with Seasons MERS, which is another Corona virus that's in the Middle East.

The naturalism or if that is, camels in China and by the way, stars.

It was palm civets and we type of animal food road that we got out of the markets here in the Arabian Peninsula.

We're not gonna euthanize up 1.7 camels, try to get rid of MERS, and there it's 100 and 10 degrees out, and this virus is transmitted Fine, thank you.

There's no evidence that seasonal there, So that's a good myth to expose right away.

This is not something that's gonna cure up when it gets warm.

If you know if it does, it won't be because there's a model for it.

Because how does how does something like SARS run through a population and stop being around anymore?

But had we had good public health, had we had, you know, the same kind of transmission?

We're seeing this corona virus for infectious before you ever get sick where you're highly infectious, remember, with SARS.

Now, you didn't really get infections till you're 66 date of illness and you knew that you were in trouble, and then you can isolate you.

And we didn't understand that at first, and we transfer virus transmitted.

So that's why sorry stopped murder stops because we don't get rid of the camels.

But then, when they go to the hospital, we no longer allow those individuals to transmit to others in the hospital because we do what we call good infection control.

Soon as they get there, they're in special rooms with special mass and all this kind of thing.

And so, in that regard, these Corona virus could be stopped.

This one's not, as I said at the top of the program.

This is ah, like trying to stop the wind influenza transmission.

You never hear anybody saying about seasonal flu year.

Well, I think as I laid out to you before, you know, this could be 10 times worse than really bad seasonal flu year and, ah, Grand chew.

It'll it will hit, you know, primarily the older population, those underlying health problems.

But as I mentioned also, you know, we have a lot of people who have other risk factors obesity, high blood pressure than others.

Factory can have a really bad outcome with this, and so we don't quite know what it's gonna do yet.

I think you know, we've been right on the mark predicting where it's gonna be, too today.

I think from here on out, I can tell you it's gonna stay around for months.

We've got to stop thinking about if we just get through tomorrow.

So we're gonna go school's gonna tell people not to go into public, gonna cancel big events.

How long we're prepared to do that, What we're gonna do.

I think the big thing is eventually enough people get infected.

Where will be like putting reactors and the rods, rods and the reaction, I should say.

But also because if you're if two of the three of us in this room are immune right now, do it because we've had it and recovered and had protection because natural protection that I couldn't transmit to anybody.

So that's what's gonna happen if you get enough people get infected.

But that's a heck of a price to pay to get there.

Is it safe to say they were fairly fortunate that this isn't something like the Spanish flu or something that's really ruthlessly deadly?

Well, that's where I think we have to be really careful.

About 0.1% of people who get seasonal flu die and branches mostly older or younger people.

Okay, that's one out of 1000 with this one right now in China, we're seeing between two and 3% of the people die, and some say, Well, that's way too high.

It's gonna be lower, but again on they say that because we didn't pick up all the milder illness is okay.

But on the other hand, we have a lot of additional people in countries like ours that have even more risk factors for having bad outcomes in China.

And so, uh, Spanish flu, the one you mentioned 1918 that was about a 3 to 3.2% case fatality rate.

Now it did preferentially impact 18 to 25 year old say they were the hardest hit group.

Well, you know, it has to with your immune response again.

We think that what happened is when those fighters got into you, it created we call a sight a kind storm, which is an antibody response in your body that's out of control.

And it basically you destroy yourself, and it sets this thing up to trigger off so the healthier people had them or adverse reaction to exactly or the other group that has had a real challenge without our pregnant women and pregnant women have a very unique issue.

They have some construction, their lungs just by the very physical mass.

But also their immune system is really at a heightened state.

At that point, there's a part of that immune system.

It's like a rejection of the graft and the other part saying this is the most precious cargo over Carrie, you know, I got to make sure I don't lose it.

And when that virus got in between those two, it started again.

Now, the thing that concerns us about this, what we saw in in 1918 I mentioned just three plus percent.

 So it's somewhere between a really bad flu, your 0.1% and it could be as high up here, you know, getting closer to 1918 like, and that's the numbers I just gave you a few minutes ago from the American Hospital Association of 480,000 US here in this country. 