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  • The first world war was among the deadliest conflicts in history and killed more than 20 million people.

    第一次世界大戦は歴史上最も残酷な戦争で、2000 万人以上が命を落としました。

  • But an outbreak of flu that began as the war ended, turned out to be far more destructive.


  • It was known as the Spanish Influenza, and infected one in three humans on earth.

    スペイン風邪として知られるこの病気には、地球上の 3 人に 1 人が感染しました。

  • It was the worst pandemic in modern history and claimed the lives of between 50 and 100 million people.

    これは近代史における最悪のパンデミックで、この犠牲となった人の数は 5000 万~ 1 億人と言われています。

  • Now, as a new strain of coronavirus spreads across the world, when does a disease become a pandemic and if it does, what happens next?


  • Disease experts use the term "pandemic" when a new infection spreads to multiple countries and continents at the same time, affecting many people.


  • That's different from another term, epidemic, which describes an infection outbreak that's larger than usual, but stays confined to a single location or region.

    これは、感染の規模が通常よりも大きいものの、限られた 1 つの場所や地域のみである「エピデミック」とは異なります。

  • So when does a disease officially become a pandemic?


  • The World Health Organization is the body that decides when an infectious disease formally becomes a pandemic, but that choice is not always black and white.


  • The group's director-general says the WHO assesses whether to use the word "pandemic" by evaluating three things.

    WHO事務局長は、「パンデミック」を宣言するには 3 つの要素を考察する必要があると話します。

  • First is the geographical spread of the virus.


  • Second is the severity of the disease caused by the virus and lastly, the societal impact of the disease.

    2 番目にウイルスによってもたらされた被害の大きさがあり、最後はその病気による社会的影響度も考慮されます。

  • A disease is more likely to become a pandemic if it is caused by a new strain of a virus, as is the case with Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19.

    新しい種類のウイルスによって病気が発生した場合は、2019 年コロナウイルス感染症、通称 Covid-19 のようにパンデミック認定される可能性が高くなります。

  • The ease with which it infects people and spreads from person to person also play a role in the designation.


  • Past pandemic outbreaks have typically originated from animal viruses, before crossing over to humans.


  • These can spread rapidly around the world because people do not have the immunity needed to fight the new infection.


  • COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020, the sixth pandemic declared in about a century.

    COVID-19 は 2020 年 3 月にパンデミック認定されましたが、これは過去 100 年以内に認定された 6 つ目のパンデミックとなります。

  • The 1918 Spanish flu was easily the deadliest flu pandemic of the 20th century, killing tens of millions of people.

    1918 年のスペイン風邪は 20 世紀最大のインフルエンザパンデミックで数千万人が犠牲となりました。

  • The Asian flu outbreak followed in 1957, killing roughly 1.1 million people around the world.

    その後、アジア風邪の感染拡大が 1957 年に発生し、世界中でおよそ 110 万人が犠牲となりましたが

  • Thankfully scientists were able to develop a vaccine quickly, effectively containing its spread.


  • Another influenza outbreak, the Hong Kong flu, started to spread from China in 1968.

    香港風邪という別のインフルエンザ感染も、1968 年中国から広まりました。

  • It was caused by a compound virus, which combined the Asian virus from ten years earlier with a form of bird flu.

    これは 10 年前に発生したアジア風邪と鳥インフルエンザの複合ウイルスによるもので

  • It killed around one million peoplemost of them older than 65.

    およそ 100 万人が犠牲となり、そのうちの多くは 65 歳以上でした。

  • HIV, which was first identified as the virus behind AIDS in 1983, was also considered a pandemic.

    1983 年に初めてエイズを発症させるウイルスとして認定された HIV も、パンデミックとして捉えられました。

  • The human immunodeficiency virus severely damages the cells in your immune system and weakens your ability to fight everyday infections and disease.


  • In the past 40 years, it's killed 35 million people worldwide, about half of the people who were infected by the virus.

    過去40年間で、世界中で感染したうちの半数近い 3500 万人が亡くなっています。

  • Then in 2009, a new outbreak, initially called the swine flu, was named a pandemic.

    そして 2009 年には新しい大規模感染が発生しましたが、豚インフルエンザと言う名前が付けられてパンデミックと認識されています。

  • It infected nearly 61 million people, and experts estimate it killed up to 575,000 people in a single year.

    これによってほぼ 6100 万人が感染し、専門家は 1 年間だけで 57 万 5 千人が命を落としたと推測しています。

  • The WHO declared the pandemic over in August 2010, but the virus has continued to circulate as a seasonal flu ever since.

    WHO は 2010 年 8 月にパンデミックの終焉を宣言しましたが、以降も季節もののインフルエンザとして感染が確認されています。

  • In recent years, the WHO has changed how it decides whether an outbreak constitutes a pandemic, following criticism that the threat of the 2009 swine flu had been exaggerated.

    近年、WHO は大規模感染をパンデミック認定する基準を見直しましたが、これは 2009 年の豚インフルエンザに対する脅威度の判断が大げさすぎたという批判を受けてのことです。

  • Many governments stockpiled vaccines which ultimately went unused, while pharmaceutical companies profiteered from the ensuing panic.


  • The disease turned out to be milder than was originally thought.


  • Since then, the WHO has released a guide to manage flu pandemics at a national and international level.

    それ以降、WHO はインフルエンザのパンデミックに対する措置方法について、国内外におけるガイドラインを制定しました。

  • According to its pandemic preparedness plan, national governments are required to follow specific protocolsif a pandemic is declaredto prevent or reduce the spread of a virus.


  • For instance, authorities at a regional and local level must fully mobilize health systems, hospitals and medical workers.


  • In addition, healthcare providers must plan for a surge in patients, and offer protective equipment to their workforce.


  • Governments must also limit social interaction, initiate quarantine measures and enforce isolation procedures.


  • Upgrading a disease to a pandemic outbreak also has psychological implications for how we think about a disaster.


  • According to the WHO "using the word pandemic carelessly has no tangible benefit, but it does have significant risk in terms of amplifying unnecessary and unjustified fear and stigma."

    WHO の言葉を借りれば、「パンデミックという表現を乱用することで得られる実質メリットは何もなく、かえって不必要に根拠のない恐怖心やマイナスイメージを増長させるリスクが出てきます」

  • Six months before the latest coronavirus outbreak, a WHO report noted that "many countries still lack a national pandemic influenza preparedness plan."

    今回のコロナウイルス感染拡大が発生する 6 か月前に、WHO は報告書の中で「国内パンデミック準備計画が用意されていない国がまだ多数ある」と指摘していました。

  • So what are the economic costs of a pandemic?


  • A previous coronavirus strain called SARS, which was detected in 2002, wasn't widespread enough to become a pandemic.

    SARS と呼ばれた直近のコロナウイルス種は 2002 年に発見されましたが、パンデミック認定されるほど広範囲には感染は拡大しませんでした。

  • While it only infected more than 8,000 people, it still cost the global economy more than 50 billion USD in 2003.

    感染者数はわずか 8000 人でしたが、世界経済の観点では 2003 年に 500 億ドルの被害をもたらしました。

  • You see, advances in medicine, communication and technology have brought mortality rates down.


  • But greater trade flows and cheaper air travel have seen the world economy become ever more interconnected and that causes the costs of a pandemic to rise.


  • A report now estimates that a pandemic will cost 570 billion USD a year.

    現在のレポートでは、パンデミックによる被害額は年間 5700 億ドルに上ると推定されています。

  • That represents 0.7 percent of the world's total income.

    これは、世界中の収入の 0.7 %に相当する数字です。

  • A pandemic can overwhelm global health systems.


  • It can also force infected individuals to avoid the office or work less productively.


  • The fear of infection spread forces people to stay apart.


  • And that can be even more debilitatingshutting down schools, businesses and public services.


  • Insurance companies must also watch developments closely.


  • A pandemic can mean more travel claims, more hospital claims and choke up global supply chains.


  • The impact on corporate earnings can then cascade into financial markets all around the world.


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The first world war was among the deadliest conflicts in history and killed more than 20 million people.

第一次世界大戦は歴史上最も残酷な戦争で、2000 万人以上が命を落としました。

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コロナ期間でよく聞く「パンデミック」とは一体何か?(What is a pandemic? | CNBC Explains)

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    Mackenzie に公開 2020 年 06 月 21 日