We talk about the politics off the whole exercise.

Make no mistake.

Even with a massive majority, the B J P led government is under pressure to deliver a budget that seems pro farmer probe part, especially as our weaker sections of the society are hit by the economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, former Finance Minister P.

Chidambaram has taken a dry by the i m F downgrade of India's growth forecast two below 5% for F Y.

20 saying the I'm offended ago peanut will now be targeted.

Can the Bee Japie government delivered on the economy?

This budget in this political face off?

I'm joined today by BDP National Spokesperson Group are a Gravel and Congress spokesperson Sanjay Charl.

Welcome to both of you and thank you for talking with us today, Gopal Agarwal.

Let's begin by you presenting your vision briefly, please.

Also because briefly on what the government really hopes to focus on in this budget.

Another important thing in the budget is that consumer demand has Toby pulled up.

That's the 1st 1 important thing that everybody agrees.

And for that, the important thing is that there is a credit availability that point of government has taken.

But the demand for credit is not coming and that will investment will be built up when capital formation will build up from consumer demand.

So government plans to put a lot of money in there who really economy farmers, food, processing those sectors which can propel the rural economy and create demand.

Second thing is better delivery off the government schemes.

It will.

If the loan money gets to the lower straight out the pyramid, they are going to spend more that consumption for cusses there then and we have C credit.

Government is pulling up, pushing that BFC nmsr me credit so that the problems finding a resolution problem that and PFC article that the government is working so handsome Consumer demand is the one focused on the government's side.

Go.

Everybody's expecting that the government will continues spending and therefore an I P scheme National infrastructure pipeline that that the government has planned off 103 lacquer or off investment will also propel the industry like cement, steel construction and we are trying to resolve some of the problems in auto by farmer Oh are in the real estate fair there are certain issues and there are problems in the global trade.

Also, their FDA are being re negotiated.

Our industry over the last 10 years because of faulty FDA have suffered a lot.

I mean, what duty structure seeping into the year, including from 2040?

No, Before you the last 10 years of their son?

No, before that There you ft.

Ever signed in the U P.

Every team I'm talking about the eft ear problems, problems that I think about for the FDA where the inverted duty structure received anything too important hour dumping duties.

So these problems are being sold and issues are at the global level.

Okay, That's quite a quite a long into demand.

Certainly are.

Getting the budget prep can be as long as possibly the budget speech.

But thank you for letting the beginning off this debate.

Mrs.

Andrija, would you like to come in here now?

There is.

I think there is no doubt no one is saying.

Not even you.

Don't be chippy.

Spokespersons on Mr Gravel is claiming that the economy is doing hunky dorey.

We know we're in bad shape.

My question to you is do you think the opposition has spent enough time focusing on the economic slowdown.

It's a fact that the Bee chippy has wasted a lot of its political capital on issues that are less important perhaps, than the slow down.

There's no need to get in to see an RCMP are right now.

They should be focusing on the economic slowdown.

My question to you is as the opposition done enough tamano foster the outset.

You know, we're not permitted to do debate, so I will not get into, ah squabble with my dear friend, Mr Garak.

But I will answer all your questions very quickly.

You know, the first thing tomorrow not that any government needs to actually be very transparent about, is to admit that you have a problem.

I think you know what the government ought to do is to perhaps listen to what our been super ammonium said, who was the chief economic advisor that India is at the moment facing a great slow down.

I mean, call it a recession, college, near recession, whatever terms they choose.

But they should accept that you have a serious problem for number two, and this is very critical that at the moment why some people believe it may be temporary, but the fact that inflation at the retail level is begin to rise and, you know, end of day as far as the you know, the economy's growth stories concerned, it's considerably store down.

It could be as low as two and 1/2 percent, not even 41%.

Clearly, that disparity is is bad news bad news?

Because you're not likely to see in this environment.

No matter how much the government talks about ease of doing business, you're not likely to see any growth in private capital investment.

Now you know the fact of my own eyes that you cannot sustain an economy of India's size, especially given the complexities and challenges we face merely on government expenditure.

You do need private investment.

You'll need exports.

You need good aggregate demand because these are the elements that will ultimately prove boy and for the economy.

Now, where the warriors and this is the worry, it's not the stagflation alone.

But the bigger worry is that happy recognized that the biggest problem, which will be used to talk about the twin balancing problem remains unresolved.

As we talk And that perhaps, is one of the reasons why you're not seeing manufacturing take off.

Because even when the RV has reduced the reportage, you're finding that the banks are not able to actually, shall we say, give the benefit either to the household sector or to the corporate sector, and that until that takes off, you're not likely to see any tangible improvement of the ground level.

So these are perceptible worries and the other parties to boost consumer demand.

You have to give money's in the hands of those who are likely to spend it.

I think the government probably, you know, kind of jumped the gun in giving those corporate tax cut rates because that one left 50,000 crores is substantial savings for the corporate sector, but whether they're going to invest.

But there still are operating a 75 percent of capacity to a couple of interesting points.

Then let me get a response.

And, you know, Senator John says he doesn't want to face off with the Kabbalah.

The reality we're goingto have historically the most calm political debate in television history, which is great, which is great, really are all sides of the story two points Global a global oneness, Corporate tax cuts in hindsight, what they required.

I also want to ask you about a tweet off yours that I saw.

Ah, it's responding to Ah, you know the IMF prediction that we will grow at less than 5% and f y 20 where you have said, and I'm quoting from your tweet we have doubts and I'm f projections whether they have taken into consideration the impact of the more the government initiatives like an I p credit line for M, S, M E and N V FC and mega Exercise on Budget, IBC and GSC Reform.

GDP growth rate has bottomed out and we will see significant brought a heads up.

The IMF makes these predictions also based on data that the Indian government gives who's going to take us.

You see if he starts even questioning the I'm off and say that we are fine.

No way are not.

If you look, you have to see in the GDP growth rate in comparison to the global growth rate.

Also because the second part of the I'm f Geeta go peanut waas that India is pulling down the economic global growth rate.

But it is the protectionist off Western and Europe, European and United United States that is harming the global trade.

So the issue is that what I'm told is that the growth a project projection for future are based on the parts historical t the issues and they have not taken.

If if they have taken an investment off, more than 100 lack Karol by the government dead off definitely figures will be different where this body will go eso it will go to the industry like steel, see main construction equipment.

And then there is something quite the flu house hosting quite different.

Why?

Why are we why are you Are you seriously?

Are you seriously questioning the IMF's projections on India's growth?

It can be questioned considering why would this off?

That they have to reduce it?

130 bibs, not I.

You see this, you know, because our own official government projections is 5% the same 4.8.

So what I'm telling, I'm not pushing their prediction.

I'm telling that India's growth rate at current is slower, slower, slower but in the future, because off certain issues and initiatives which the government has taken it will ah, grow it a faster read.

That's what I'm taking talking about.

And the reforms like GSD.

There are certain bottlenecks in the gsd.

Yes, which the government is going to rectify.

So Gs Terry form in IBC also, you have to also look into the legal issues when you are talking about a minute.

You know, last night.

I just want what I think it is.

One minute.

Sending a mission.

What we have to speak on the shorter they let big a different perspectives in Mr Sandra, let me cover the question of legacy issues.

This is something we hear very often that their legacy issues There was a massive mess between 2000 for 2014 on it will take time for these to unwind everything whenever you asked.

Those in you know, in charge today say that these are legacy issues.

Yes, yes, yes, Mr Sunday job.

But you know, come on.

I think we need to now move over this political expediency and, you know, kind of blaming the past.

I mean, these are actually irrational arguments.

I don't think anybody believes that anymore.

The fact of the matter is that if you look at the numbers, yes, there was a lot off investment made in infrastructure projects in the P.

P.

P's and you know, a lot of them did not really take off.

Yes, there was an accumulation off NPS, but the levels and four in 2014 for 4.1% of the gross NPS you're now talking about even right now, it would be perhaps over 10%.

It had crossed 11%.

And the fact is, five years is a considerable time to actually set the process of recovery into motion.

Now, the truth of the matter is that today if you look at the larger collapse, it's happened right under the nose of the current government, the aisle office, whether look at the paint job, a rasta cooperative bank D h f l u.

Look at you know, you know the HD I'll These are all cos in real estate, but he got a massive problem and the government has actually not been able to address it for a considerable time.

So the truth is that, you know, at the moment Mr Agarwal must recognize that you have had the advantage in the 1st 5 years off a massive.

You know what I call is a tailwind in terms of a crash.

International crude oil price.

Now, your situation.

Single situation where globally the economy off worldwide might be slowing down.

It definitely is.

You have a China America, you know, Terry, for which is uneven but can't be ruler.

It can get worse tomorrow, although it seems to have, you know, kind of cooled off for temporarily.

But if the oil prices were to rise, I mean, this government has no elbow room and you know it.

Come on.

Now, The one number that offer should watch for when the new budget comes out is the fiscal deficit number.

Because of one worry all of us have who followed the economy very closely is what is the real fiscal deficit.

I'm an end of a The combined fiscal deficit ridden off the states in the center is over 8%.

And even then we don't know how much of it is done through off, you know, off the balance sheet financing.

Which is why I think the concerns are extremely high as to where does this government see the economy really stabilizing because the stupid list has not worked and monetary policies become ham handed.

So where is the government Spanish here coming from?

We have no clue at all.

You want to answer that question?

Mr.

Violet's a crucial question, and frankly, and this is a miserable combination off elements.

Now we can argue that was the self inflicted with the monetization gs t were these, you know, legacy issues winding down.

I don't think there's any point, you know, after a certain level trying decipher what exactly happened.

Right now we're in a bind.

The entire country is in a bind.

Do you see a clear path from another issue?

Waas.

We had to tackle the supply side off.

Credit the bank, financial institutions, foreign doldrum in 2014.

Whoever is to blame, you decide.

But ultimately between 2006 to 12 the outstanding loan increase from 18 Lechero to 52.

Lack arose and whatever, and Pierre has been sure been shown.

Now it is identification off that only, and teeth and resolution we have been able to recover four lacquer roars through the I V C process.

IBC is considered to be a landmark reform across the globe.

So we are resolving the every thought.

I'm not talking about the legacy, but we are resolving that supply side off.

The credit and banking institution now are at the healthy level.

They are ready to lower give loan weather.

It is due to occur.

Capitalization recovery process without financial sector cannot work in any country without recourse to recovery.

Who brought that?

I busy.

It is our government and the GSD waas every form.

But there are issues with regard to text by and see and JST network.

I agree those for GSD networker issues technological glitches or return time with corporate up is the cycles want three months and working capital shoot that the government is resolving on the end.

PFC.

There is a problem that regard toe recurring resolution and we are in the process of bringing a party.

We are talking about that financial resolution and departed insurance that will result in the FC problem also realistic.

You have done who have 95 who is trying to resolve a problem you cannot play.

Blame the resolution process who is toe bringing out solution to equal system level three or did it all will be about what you do.

And your decision?