How long has he won t?

Three elections battleground 2019 with a fusion of Dad's army.

Our eyes, don't you?

Maybe.

No.

So, Robert, this election is gonna be a wild ride.

We've invented a wild ride for ourselves this morning cause I'm going to attempt to draw the United Kingdom, and then we're gonna match the battleground.

I've seen you.

Okay?

I've seen you practicing your maps and all I can say so far, it's fantastic.

Zip it.

OK, Right.

This, believe it or not, represents East Anglia, Kent, the Southwest whales.

That's great.

Britain.

Um, here's Northern Ireland that Oh, that's really got like, the chef's happening.

So this election's worked very complicated, potentially the era of kind of national swing telling you the whole story is over and we gotta have some regional fights.

So let's try and explain what's going on.

We've got the usual red on blue fight.

Would you like to take the conservative pen?

The conservative pen on dhe?

The first battle ground that's been identified has been what's being called the Red Wall.

His labor held seats in that kind of a shape.

Yeah, you can actually take you all the way across to some extent, but okay.

All right, let's do that.

So that's a key battleground Hope.

Oh, you want me to do that?

Well, could be.

Okay, let's just do that.

Your ritual.

That's the red wall all the way from the veil of Cloyd over to the Northeast coast on the's.

Our seats, The Tory party thinks it needs to win.

Yes, again.

Majority on this is gonna be one of most annoying phrases.

And we're gonna hear this.

Also, the Red Wall, which is, of course, not a wallet, all but more of a set of crazy paving or something like that.

There are spots all over the place becomes comes down to the Midlands in parts as well.

On DDE, these are seats essentially all over the place, with wildly different demographics that the Conservatives think they've got a chance of taking their labour seats.

And when we talk about the rebel with most talking about seats that the Conservatives never held run held in modern memory.

So it's traditional labor.

Stare it.

Some of them are really quite surprising.

Former mining seats Darvish or areas in a box over, for example, Dennis Skinner's seat famously for God knows how many years Tourist think they've got a real chump.

So the places like that also up toward Sheffield, you got placed about that.

You just don't think of the conservatives having a shop where the numbers from the last election say, If they got the same swing this time that they got last time, then they got a good chance.

Crucially, that's actually a continuation of the May strategy in the 2017 election to try and take working class towns off labor because of the leave vote.

Well, that's the theory.

Okay, Ministerial, we've talked to us before, but you know, the last election trees in May, for all the things that she got wrong, she got 42% of the vote.

That's a big number over here in most elections.

That's a winning number on dhe.

She squeezed the UKIP voters.

It was then we pull it the Brexit party.

Now she squeezed that vote as much as you could probably squeeze it to get that, in fact, one of the reasons why it was so closely in the elections because the price of squeezing that was consolidating the anti leave vote as it were.

But there's not a lot of spare meat in some of these seats for the exclusive.

Actually got to go and get labour votes.

They can't do it by squeezing the Brexit party again.

They've got to get angry Labour voters.

There's a different proposition.

So the complicating path factor which you've already alluded to is the Brexit party and where they stand.

And so can I sue us?

Do a sort of double of Brexit double of Brexit party here because if they stand in these seats, they could.

They could trace and take a percentage off the Tory vote because there may be taught labor, traditional labour voters who can bring themselves not to vote for Jeremy Corbyn this time.

But can they totally bring themselves to vote for the Tories, their ancient enemy?

You know, in coal field seats, former coal mining towns, So they really want to vote for the party, Mrs Thatcher.

So I did a bit of research for hands.

I got my phone out, looked at a number of constituencies and someone were quite telling where the Brexit vote party vote can be the difference.

And there are quite a lot of seats, some held by the tour, is already in the North Hampton's or Milton Keen's.

Some, like Wolverhampton Southwest, where a couple of 1000 votes for the Brexit party will be the difference between victory and defeat in those seats.

And I think, actually, when you look at the big picture, the whole election obviously number one is labor Vittori as always.

But the three things that really going to determine now from this election are eight the turnout because 2017 Mel people voting in most constituencies than 2015.

And that accounts for quite a lot of the changes that causes off the back of a 70% turnout in the Brexit referendum a year before, which boosted the numbers of participation intimate about it.

Take a seat like Warrick and Linnington somewhere around here.

Well, where exactly are we?

Oh, OK, if you tell me where the other parts aren't anywhere is information.

What can I pick out one of them, I think Hardly pool.

It's sort of here.

Okay, so there, for example, Richard Tice is a very high profile member of the Brexit Party is standing in a traditional labor town where It's quite a big ask to get people to go go Torrey right, so that's got a good example.

It is really interesting because don't okay, I believe you.

Nigel Farage has said he thinks the Brexit party will take more votes off labor than off.

The conservative All expert opinion says the opposite that for every two votes takes all three of late of the conservative take one off labor.

But there are places on these sort of ways were It's undoubtedly truth that there was a chunk of Brexit party vote which was there for the taking and it wouldn't go to the concert.

So it's not completely falls point and if they targeted really carefully, it could make a difference.

But there are some seats where they've been very, very strong.

Stoke on Trent is one back mantle of Dagenham and rein him is another way.

These with this vote matters, don't come back to work and let me tell a minute because there's an interesting constituency were just agreeing that there are disrupted their anyway.

It's a massive disrupted the Brexit politics coming into your seat where the majority labour labour currently hold it majority about 1200.

The number of votes in the last election went up considerably, but the Brexit party could make a real difference because there is a significant white light plus vote in there.

On the other hand was a really large student vote, So it's the kind of place where the brakes gotta make it.

It's also the liberal Democrats could make it because they've got squeezed.

And I think the big issue is how much can the conservative squeeze the Brexit party?

How much can labor screws the liberal Democrats by either of those parties?

Start doing well.

It's very bad news for their respective larger Yeah, brother or sisters.

Yeah, So I want to come onto the Lib Dems because I want to talk about this battleground here which at the moment, the map of the south of England, with the exception of London.

So that's just bracket of London.

I mean, this is really Torrey.

When you look at it, it's absolutely blue.

Is you, like the whole way down.

This is going to be a hugely important target area for the Lib Dems.

I mean, commuter, you know, affluent commuters owns around London.

Bits of the South coast, where they previously held a lot of seats.

That's right on those are moderate.

Tory's put off by Brexit.

They think in enough numbers to secure quite a few seats here and even down in the Southwest used to be strong liberal territory.

But which has the complicating factor that it's quite Levi, quite levy on where the Lib Dems lost this crucial second place after the coalition years, but that this is gonna be a really, really, really tight fight between the Lib Dems and the Tories.

And there what you're alluding to, how much can live down vote squeeze in these seats is going to be.

How much can the lib Dems squeeze the labor vote down, mostly seats, labor still in second place?

We have places across the whole country.

I would like to stop you there because I would like to say that you are assuming that the 2017 election is the baseline and it really isn't because since 2017 the Lib Dems who were still on life support of come back to life and they are the challengers this year, even though they were not the challenges in 22nd greatest that.

Actually, it's not.

If you live in quite a lot of the seas, you're not clear through the challenges up.

If you live in the Borman, stopped places like that.

Actually, the lib Dems can tell you that they have a better chance of winning it.

But the facts say that in 2017 labor were second in whatever seat it was on.

Therefore, the greater risk is the fact they fight each other to a stance on the tourist.

Keep all of them so happily for the Lib Dems.

They are kind of an alliance with the polling industry in a weird way, because the polling industry has been trying to reinvent its methods since 2017 and seems to be on poured in a sense for the Lib Dem message, which is that don't look at the last general election.

Look at what's happened in recent months because the leave versus remained divide in the country is motivating people's vote Maur.

The most traditional allegiances, which he still saw in 2017 is that this is a really important sort of second battleground on DDE because the Tories know they're gonna lead lose some of these seats here to the Lib Dems.

That's why they've got to gain some of these seats up here, right?

So it's all into, really.

But I think also it's raising.

When we talk about elections, we all love things like the Northern strategy or the Red Wallet.

Actually, there are.

We don't really have a name for this.

No measles there about just under 40 seats that the Tories have held in recent memory.

But they don't hold now.

I think was 35 30.

Some, some of that and some of them are quite marginal, and some of them could easily on.

They're all over the country that something whales a veil of clued in London.

You got places like Battersea.

As I said Warrick in Leamington, Wolverhampton Southeast on I slightly wonder whether in all of our journalistic interest in big themes and big concept, actually, it's places it's placed like that dotted all over the country where this election will really want.

Battersea is a good example.

Battersea.

That's good.

Let's move to London.

London's really interesting anyway, so London in recent years has beena very labor city very.

But we've seen opinion polls recently, which suggest that It's nothing like his labors.

It waas on Labor of God's got some unusual winds at the last election.

Kensington's a really good example.

Very, very narrow.

Win could easily lose it.

Lib Dems have now got Sand Demon who was a conservative, So they're gonna put a stronger challenge in there.

Who's he gonna pull votes from Labor or the Tories not let not clear?

Yeah, you know, it doesn't take a lot to pull that seat off of labor battles is interesting.

I pulled this one upset, but Susan seat the Tories held in 2015.

I think they lost the last election.

The majority is.

It's a little over 2002 and 1/2 1000.

But the Lib Dem vote in the last election was 4400 1 of the places where the Lib Dems didn't actually take a complete battery, they began to eat their way back.

If that lived in vote creeps up again.

That's mostly going to come from labor out of thought.

And that bring lets the tour is back in.

It's a fascinating dynamic for the Tories in the Lib Dems because actually they need the Liberal Democrats to do well toe win the seats they're after, but obviously starts to to.

Well, it becomes a problem so that it's interesting.

Lib Dem surge.

That's a very urban phenomenon and in very particular seats, isn't it?

But it makes it really interesting to watch, because it's in a lot of London this through all three parties in place.

But a lot of these seats Oh, if not urban there, suburb.

And they're quite well, Darby, north of Seat the Chris Williams and held that was, quite recently, a Tory seat.

Again, the Lib Dem Vote, the Brexit party vote.

How that plays out could make an enormous difference.

And these are not actually poor areas for the main these places with lower the national average unemployment, quite high owner occupiers.

He's the kind of seats that the Tories traditionally we're going after and then know that the the red rule notion.

But the other thing, I think, is really interesting about this and where you get these three way fights you will have Well, there are very bad relations nationally between the Lib Dems and labor on.

They're not able to replicate.

The thing that worked was the anti Torrey surge during, for example, the 19 nineties, where it was quite clear on the parties where what we're happy to reinforce on the ground in a sense, if you want to vote against the Tories, were your best bet here, and they'd be non aggression pact.

Not nationally.

That sort of Northern a wink to tactical voting is gonna be really difficult this time between labor in the Lib Dems because of their divides on the Brexit strategy.

Principally, one of the nice, terrifying things of this election is that all the parties really do hate each other.

Yeah, think about it.

That's true.

That's true.

Except I was going to come on to the fact that the Lib Dems of also managed to sign up the Green Party, which we use for greens.