Um, itmightbemucheasierforthatpersontofightoff a reinfectionthansomebodythatisolderthathasexistingdiseasewithsomepeoplesaytous.
Sohowcan I tellthedifferencebetweenthesymptomsof a nastycoldorthefluondhecovered?
19?
I thinkthat's a reallygoodquestion, andrightnowthecasedefinition.
Sohowscientistsaredescribinginusing, Um, like a setof, say, likeprinciplestoidentifyCoronavirusisreallybeyondthesymptomsof, youknow, having a fever, havingbodyaches, having a cough, whichispresidentofcoldandflu.
It's alsoaboutwhohaveyoubeennear?
Sohaveyoutraveledrecentlytoanywherethathashad a clusterofofinfections?
Whilewehaveseenveryfewcaseslimitedcaseswheretheycan't reallysay, youknow, actually, I don't rememberbeingnexttoanybodywhohave, whohasbeentoChinaoranyoftheseplaceswherethere's a communitytransmissionwhilewewhilewedon't have a lotofthatthatdoesexist.
Andrightnow a lotofscientistsaretryingtofigureoutwheretheygotthatfrom, becausebecauseanotherconcernfrom a lotofpeopleseemstobethatIsitpossibletobeinfectedandshownosymptomswhatsoever?
Sowehaveseensomeofthosecasesagainlimitedcasesthatareasymptomatic, sonotshowingany, um, anysymptoms, thatsomethingthatwe'restilllookingat a TTEthemoment.
I mean, I can't saywhatpercentagebecausethere's somanydifferentpopulationsstudiesgoingonrightnow, butforthemostpartitseemsthatpeopleareactuallypresentingwithsymptoms, evenifthey'remildsymptoms.
And, asyouknow, a majorityofpeoplewhoarecontractedcovert 19 actuallyexhibitmildsymptoms.
I thinkit's concerningbecausewedon't haveanyimmunitytoit.
Youknow, withseasonalflu, atleastwehavevaccines.
Andlikethisyear, thevaccinewasquiteeffective.
Itwasabout 44% forpeoplewhoactuallygotthevaccine.
Theywereprotected.
Butwhatwedoknow, comparedtoothervirusesthatcantrythatthathaverespiratoryillnessorthatcauserespiratoryillness, likewhat I saidearlieraboutthestarsandthemurders.
Soifyouevenlook a seasonalflu, um, everybodydoesn't getseasonalfluatthesametime.
Right?
Andflewalsoisseasonal.
It's cycles.
Sowehave, like a fluperiodbetweenmaybeDecemberandFebruaryormarchtoanywhereyouare, andthenwehaveanotheronethatcomesinthefall.
Sowejustyouknow, thiswasjustdiscoveredatthebeginningofDecember, sowe'rewaitingtoseeifithasthatseasonalitypatternaswell, because I thinkitwasDonaldTrumpwhooriginallysaidThere's anotherpeopletalkaboutitthat, youknow, comethewarmerweather.
Itwouldbe a nicebreakfor, youknow, toehave a bitof a riskSpitehavinglesspeopleconductcontractthisthisillnessinthesummertimesothat, um, effortstorespondcanbemoreconcentrated.
So, youknow, weknowaboutthepossibledeathratefigures.
Whatdoweknow?
Whatkindoffigureswereactuallyhavetogotohospital?
Haveattention?
Yes.
Soatthemoment, whatwe'veseeninChinaisabout 20% ofthosewhocontractCovein 19 have a severeillness, meaningthattheyactuallyneedtobeadmittedintothehospital.
So I wouldthinkthatpeoplewhohaveasthma, bronchitisorotherthings, theywouldalsomeanjustwithfluidswhiletheywouldwanttoprotectthemselves.
Andisthatfortheolder, olderpeople?
Justdemographics.
I wouldthinkit's alldemographicsbecauseeventhoughwhatwe'reseeing a lotoftimesinthesciencesreported, it's kindofshownis a quitebinarythatonlyoldpeopledie, youknow, majoritymight, youknow, majorityofoldpeoplewhohavecompromisedimmunesystemsarepeoplewithcompromisedimmunesystem, ourunderlyinghealthconditions.
Butthatdoesn't meanthatthey'renotcases, um, ofyoungpeoplethathavealsocontractedthedisease, and I wesawthatquite a fewhealthcareworkers, umtheone, theonedoctorwhoactuallywasthefirstpersontoreportcoveit 19.
And I willsayoneotherthingisthateventhoughthere's a lotofcriticismofChinaand I thinkaswedo, muchmorejournalismandweunderstand, especiallythebeginningpartoftheoutbreak, whathappened?
Itseemsthatafter I wouldsaymaybethe 1st 3 weeks, whatwhatwascomingoutofChinareallyseemsthatitwastrue.
Itseemsthatthey'vedone a lotofwork.
I reallyinthepastandotherappearances I havereallylaudedthere, Um, someoftheirmeasures.
I madeothermeasuressuchas, youknow, theveryextremequarantinemeasuresthatthey'vedone.
Thosewillneedtobeinreally, I think, assessedandunderstoodiftheywerereallybeneficial, because, youknow, Chinahasalsobledintosomehumanrightschallengeswiththiswholething.
Um, butat a veryhighlevel, they, um, haveveryadvancedscience.
Theyhavetheresourceisinthehumancapacitytoconstructhospitalsandweeks, youknow, theyreallyseemlikethey'vedoneallthattheycouldtocontainitasmuchaspossible, becausewhatcouldwelearnaboutintermsoflike, Iranseemstohavequite a highdeathrateat a smallnumberofcases, andthenItalyseemstohavebecomethemainareainEurope.
Yeah, so I thinkthisis a verygoodpointbecauseitgivesyou a littlebitmorecontactto, likethecasefatalityrateor, youknow, thedeathrateorhoweverwe'recallingit, sothatisverycontextual.
Honestly, becauseyouthinkit's a Westerncountry, whydidtheyseemtobehaving a bitmoredifficultywhileTobehonest, I don't knowthespecificsabouttheItalianoutbreakasfarasthecluster.
Butonethingthat I havereadisthatsinceweknowthatmorepeoplewhoknowmoreoftheelderlyarearetheonesthathaveeitherseverediseaseorthataredying, it's importanttolookatthe's, thedemographicsofthecountriesthatyouknow, theoutbreakishappening.
Andyouknow, if a countryhas a veryhighelderlyrateor a specificregioninthatcountry, thenitmakesmoresensethatthepeoplewhocontractthediseasewillbemoredifficultforthemtorecoverfromit.
Someonehereisalsosaying, youknow, if a lotofthepeoplewhohavethevirusshownosymptomsaremildsymptoms, howisthisnotspreadingexponentially?
Like, youknow, couldtherebe a hellof a lotmorepeoplewhohavethisthatwehave?
No, noideaabout.
Sowhat I wouldsayisthatfromwhatwe'veseeninChina, mostofthetransmissionhappenedwithpeoplewhowerefamilyorclosecontactofpeoplewhogotsick.
Doesthatmakesense?
Sowhileofcourse, yeah, I mean, insomeways, anythingispossible.
But I'm actuallyquitereassuredthatitseemstobe a clusterlikevery, veryclusteredoutbreak, notjustkindofrandompeoplethatyouwalkedbygivingpeopletheillness, andsothatactuallyhelpsourresponsemeasuresmuchmoresoififyoucanidentifyeverysinglepersonthatsomeonewhoissickhasbeenincontactwithandthenisolatethemforfortheincubationperiod.
I wenttoDubai, andthen I traveledfromDubaitoLondon.
Andinthatshorttime I mean, honestly, days I'veseensuch a rampupofsurveillanceintheintheairports.
Butit's notuniform.
Andsothat's what I wouldsayisthateventhough I thinktheinternationalcommunityisdoing a lot, um, makingsurethatwehavethatuniformityofsurveillanceof, youknow, umenhancedincreasedsurveillanceisasportsofentryspeciallyairports, butevengroundcrossingsinsomeplacesandevenseaportsinsomeplaces.
Ittakesabout 24 to 48 hoursfromonceyougetthesample, meaningthatit's usually a throatornoswabthathasthesputumononthelike a samplekit, Um, fromfromwhenyoutakethatswab, too, whenyouputitintothelaboratorycanbeupto 48 hourstoget a confirmedcase.