Name: コロナウイルスの暴落。世界市場の専門家は世界的な不況を懸念 (Coronavirus Fallout: Global Market Experts Fear A Global Recession)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:28:47.000Z
Duration: 9 min 12 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：新型コロナウイルス,新型肺炎,COVID-19

動名詞

I really appreciate you staying up this late and talking to us.

現在進行形

Good evening to you, but it's not turning out to be a good evening.

We haven't quite handled such ferocity in the fall in a long time.

Dips have been born into this seems likely different, doesn't it?

And given what we've seen so far, the risk is that you're going to see, you know, Now you're seeing it.

Obviously in Italy, you're seeing it in South Korea.

You're seeing it in Japan and you're probably gonna get in Germany and it's probably coming to the U.

And you're going to see major economic activity impairment.

As people stop traveling, people stop eating out people, you know, stop going toe work.

All these kind of things that are going to come.

We don't have any road map to figure out how much often effect will have.

But clearly it looks like a first quarter on second quarter are going to be at risk.

Still, uh, we get some abatement in the ferocity of this spread, and obviously, as a winter weather recedes There's some hope and expectation that this is a strange, eventually off type of flu virus, which should start to the worst effects of stock.

But But before we can look to the other side, if way have the risk that this could tip major economies in the world into recession Ah, and frankly, with the U.

Election coming up, one of the strongest suits off President Trump has been, uh, has been a strong economy.

So it raises questions about the about the outlook for for the election.

So there's a lot of things at play here which are causing investors to take risk.

No wonder, I'm just wondering, Would you reckon that thus far, what we've seen is the risk off money pulling out from key asset classes in key markets.

We haven't seen the fundamental money questioning what will happen to GDP earnings growth that straw, because those are still important edibles.

Well, I I don't know if I would make that distinction, that there's risk off money versus fundamental money.

I think everybody has been selling till now.

The question really is when the fundamental money start buying thing.

That enough risk has been taken off and values our, you know, our valuation.

They're getting two levels where fundamental long term investors would be willing to step up.

And unfortunately, you know the market Still it 18 times earnings.

So I can't say with any conviction that fundamental investors are chomping at the bit because the market has fallen enough.

This just came because a lot of people in the last few days have also mentioned that his lips should be brought into because this transient in nature.

But I think I've been Sanger makes that point.

Well, how do you even distinguish between the two set?

Johnson and this colonization said, I think important points made by I've been Sanger.

But the question here is just this, because this is an unpredictable situation.

Do you think that money being pulled out off perceptibly risky assets like equities will continue in the near term until we find some bottom to this issue?

Unfortunately, I do think that's gonna be the case because there's fears about so what depth this is really going to turn into a pandemic.

You know, we've now seen some cases in the United States.

One of the first ones is in Sacramento, California and, um, you know, this makes makes investors nervous, but it's also easy to see direct impacts on the economy.

Automotive business where, um, or the whole or construction where such a large percentage of construction materials are imported from China.

And when it does, it's a fair point, right?

Far people have been bothered about any supply chain linkages to China and those businesses having an impact.

Would you reckon that even from shores like India, businesses which have a large exposure to the US now too, might face off fundamental concerns about what the numbers could look like over the course of the next couple of quarters?

Or is it too much to think about right now?

Well, if you're talking about India, the idea that Corona virus will not come to India, as you know, is I think wrong once, and so I think India seems to be woefully unprepared.

I've not heard anything, you know, there's so much more focused about all this stuff going on in Delhi that there doesn't seem to be any focus on Corona virus and preparation for it on.

Therefore, I think the problems they're going to be more You know more about Indian companies who would be affected and how they're the economy react to it.

But I think global supply chains, everybody is gonna suffer for the U.

I think one of the things is the largest component is a service industry and the service industries.

It's not just supply chains from China, but it's gonna be a service to them.

Some of which people will, you know, will not be using as well.

So that could cause real pain after the employment market.

How I know it's difficult to predict but still have to do this.

How much more pain do you foresee right now?

And your answer could be completely wrong because it could get even further.

But as things stand with the information that you have at hand, how much more pain do you see for equities?

I think you know, I could easily see this going another five or 10% but that may not all happen as quickly as the last 10% has happened.

I think this may spread out for a while until we get a better sense of what's happening.

So I certainly wouldn't say this is time to jump in with both feet and start bottom fishing.

Thanks so much for joining us and giving us that perspective, said Freeman.

The other point is, as somebody made it the other day, that born market usually tend to price riskier times much better than equities on.

We've seen Treasury lt's show that and their court.

But what you award the born markets have done alone, Onda murmurs around.

How money's, of course, lying out in the scene a large if I sell number in trade yesterday as well.

And that's why we haven't even shown any kind of back from Corona lighters.

Would you reckon that this Spain off money getting pulled out on at a fast clip might continue?

Yeah, you know when when you have negative money flows from emerging markets, it really effects?

Uh, because because of the, uh, smaller floats and liquidity, it's gonna have a greater effect on emerging markets and India.

You know, one of the problems is that that is actually the growth of index stocks.

So if someone is selling an emerging markets index and the part of it is they're getting out of because of China, whatever it impacts the allocation of Indian stocks, for example, to that index.

But in in the near term, you know, I can see this getting significantly worse over the next few weeks just because of the unknowns.

And as you mentioned, you know, if if it begins to break out in India, you have such high concept, popular, high concentrated populations that it would could spread very easily.

I'm just saying, I'm just saying this perspective off the human cause and you're right.

The contradiction of population would make it a difficult piece.

Commodities are the until it benefits to commodities like gold.

Because gold is at Highs Group is that 20 quarter knows what happens to both of these well, goals of safe haven, uh, Treasury bonds, safe haven.

And so that's where investors are going to be looking.