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  • we begin.

  • Of course, with the markets the Dow's best day since June, stocks continue to stage that strong rebound.

  • Jim, I guess this is the market saying the virus is a big story, but maybe the worst has passed or it's not gonna be as bad as some originally feared.

  • Yeah, I think that's I think that's a logical conclusion.

  • I think it's also fair to say that there will be some repercussions and the repercussions will be transient.

  • They won't be that great.

  • But look, we got Disney.

  • I think after the close today, I should know, since I just bought shares.

  • We talked about that last week.

  • I bought shares last week.

  • But you know, what do they say about Disney?

  • Shanghai?

  • And not just Disney Shanghai?

  • But what do they say about theme parks?

  • Overall?

  • You know, I flew this weekend.

  • I'll say just one person's anecdotal reports.

  • I thought the airports and airplanes were really empty.

  • So do airlines come out and say something?

  • Look, all of this should be localized to the first quarter, but we have to expect that there will be some reports of negative impact from the Corona virus and that should give buying up.

  • Joe.

  • I'm going to use a word that you've talked about often recently, and that's liquidity to me.

  • This disk mark, it comes down to liquidity versus the virus, and liquidity is winning right now 100% to me that it's remarkable the price performance for the S and P over the last two days.

  • Yes, factory orders were good.

  • Manufacturing a good but okay alphabet last night had a slight mis disappointed the market.

  • It's about liquidity in a geographic region that needed it really bad.

  • China stimulating global central banks are engaged.

  • That's that's us.

  • Central bank is very much in play there still the belief you gotta put your money somewhere in this environment and why not here And yes, I'm not trying to minimize it in any way, shape or form what's happening globally with the Corona virus.

  • But to me, it seems like that's how the market has voted.

  • Yeah, and I also think the fact that it really has not built mo mentum in headlines here in the U.

  • S.

  • And we have not seen, thankfully the spread domestically here in the U.

  • S.

  • It seems to be somewhat isolated to Asia.

  • I think that's helpful.

  • But again, it just goes back to It.

  • Started the very first day of 2020 when the PBOC cut the reserve rate requirement 50 basis points and now they're committing 50 something $1,000,000,000 more to the market.

  • That's the one economy and market that needed it most.

  • And it just adds the liquidity, the liquidity.

  • Ocean.

  • Yeah, okay, stuff.

  • So Tony Dwyer, our friend he's frequently on the show, says you've got four fundamental reasons for optimism to remain in place.

  • One is what we're talking about.

  • Feds gonna continue printing money.

  • Money's widely available number two economy here is doing well and you have an inflection In the global economy, things are better in Europe and it may be elsewhere too.

  • You know, we talked about that yesterday, right?

  • With the PM eyes being a little better in the eurozone and in Germany, u K.

  • And then here, of course, as well as new orders here in the iess and report the CDC.

  • Yes, yesterday I thought, gave us more confidence in terms of having a better handle on things.

  • No, it's not solved, but at least we feel a little bit better.

  • But I have to tell you, I think this is all about earnings today.

  • I truly D'oh!

  • We've had some really good numbers come out today.

  • Let me list a few.

  • Emerson came in line, but they actually better free cash flow.

  • They actually raised guidance.

  • This is an industrial that has a ton of exposure to China.

  • And as a result, all the industrials are rallying.

  • Nxb I we're all worried about auto auto actually beat expectations.

  • Industrial also beat expectations.

  • Remember how earnings growth the way your point.

  • I'm gonna help you get along.

  • Okay?

  • It's the earnings.

  • Growth was negative as we started and sort of got going.

  • Now we're back.

  • Positive I'm not saying is gangbusters, but one and 1/2 percent to the plus side rather than negative.

  • I'll take it.

  • And it's not just that it's margins as well.

  • I mean, even I look a Clorox and that's the reason that stock is surging today.

  • Well, organic was a little bit better flat instead of down, too.

  • But margins actually was better were better than expected.

  • Ralph Lauren guiding to the high end of expectations, North America same store sales at 4%.

  • I could list five other companies other than Google, that had really good numbers.

  • And I think that's very, very encouraging.

  • And I think at the end of the day, we're probably 34% for this quarter.

  • And I wasn't expecting anything near that.

  • You know that I'm a earnings bull, right?

  • I thought that this was gonna be the trough.

  • If this is the trough, then we have a lot to look forward to into a 20 year thing.

  • You talked about a lot, at least in from, ah, global manufacturing standpoint.

  • That number yesterday got a lot of people thinking that.

  • Okay, maybe the worst is certainly behind you.

  • You do a 50 after you're thinking you're gonna be stuck in the forties for a bit that we have to.

  • We were stuck in the forties for a bit.

  • I mean, 50 was very well expected.

  • The U S I S m.

  • Has lagged all the other developed countries.

  • PM I So if that hadn't come in above 50 no expectations were lower.

  • That would have worried me.

  • Now step, You and I were talking about this before the show started.

  • Emerson cat today.

  • You know is that United Reynolds?

  • Is that risk on or is that a response to Emerson?

  • And I've got a I'm gonna disagree with you, Okay?

  • Because Emerson, I just look at the sales 19 billion.

  • I don't know that that's really the bellwether that I look at, but I will say, Look, it's a mixed bag, all right?

  • Cause you got auto sales yesterday that were much better than expected.

  • On the other hand, you've got Google that just missing on revenues is not really what you like to see and what I'm putting it all together.

  • And I'm saying this is a great opportunity to have some dry powder.

  • I still stay with that.

  • It puts some to work last week, but having dry powder, I think today is just a risk on day.

  • I'm not sure we're off to the races yesterday.

  • I'm sorry.

  • What was yesterday more?

  • Listen more of the same.

  • I mean, you could have two days in a row.

  • Okay, but at what point do you say?

  • Okay, this is actually something too to buy into.

  • It Sounds like you're apprehensive to do that.

  • I'm not apprehensive from a fear point of view, I'm really just being patient.

  • I mean, this is what Jimmie Kramer's been saying for the last week and had me pick the word.

  • Okay, so you know what?

  • I'd like to see 1/3 day follow through tomorrow.

  • I find it hard to buy today.

  • After basically all we've done is reverse Friday's decline.

  • I'd like to see us move towards a little closer towards a new high on the S and P 500.

  • Give me tomorrow and I'm on with you tomorrow so we can talk about I'm surprised to hear you talk so generally about buying.

  • Usually I know to be able to find opportunities and Technicolor vision.

  • I mean, you could find those opportunities on a down day and update.

  • It's been spectacular.

  • What has gone on here with technology?

  • The recovering?

  • I talked about Semi's yesterday.

  • I think you could look at a lot of the semi's right now, which are beginning to rebound back.

  • There's a tremendous recovery period that they will experience if the overall market gains momentum.

  • Take a stock like Netflix very quietly.

  • Netflix is right back up to 3 65 Once again, there's a long runway there in terms of recovery.

  • So I think you could mind for opportunities with a lot of equities.

  • Absolutely right.

  • And you mentioned the chips and Qualcomm is very much on my mind.

  • We talked about it last week, you know, it's an 88 today, 83.

  • Was that line in the sand?

  • You know, Steve Weiss is a raging bull on this.

  • He and I've been talking about a lot of you Stone it.

  • Look, all I'm being is very precious concert price conscious.

  • Maybe I'm being too price conscious, but I'm fine doing that.

  • I just don't feel today or yesterday impels me.

  • Moves me like I have to get the cash.

  • You doing toe work right now.

  • You do agree that you have to follow the companies that have been reported good earnings and has been semi conductors that actually have delivered.

  • It was intel.

  • It was even am Day was bad reaction.

  • Am David.

  • It was a m d.

  • It was lam research.

  • It's an expert in Texas.

  • Instruments should recover.

we begin.

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A2 初級

ナスダックが記録を更新したため、ウォール街で株式が急騰 (Stocks surge on Wall Street as Nasdaq hits record)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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