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  • Saudi Arabia launched a price war against other key producers.

  • Today, however, a little bit of good news.

  • We'll see here.

  • Oil prices bouncing back a bit.

  • W t I crude right now at 33.

  • 65.

  • That's up a bad 8% Jonas right now for a look at the impact this price war will have on the energy sector.

  • Gary Ross, CEO of Black Gold Investors.

  • Good morning to you.

  • Good morning.

  • There's a little bit about nice.

  • I don't want to call it a rally.

  • A little, a little bit of anything is better than where we were before, But the question is whether you think this is a bottom, whether you think it's where this is headed next, I don't think it's a bottom because we haven't really seen the supply.

  • I mean sort of Rabies increasing supply to 12 million barrels.

  • They plus in April. 00:00:59.180 --> 00:01:3.080 So that's April loaders that won't arrive in the United States until June. 00:01:3.540 --> 00:01:6.600 So basically, we haven't seen the huge surge in supply. 00:01:6.950 --> 00:01:12.350 There's been stocked building, of course, in Asia because of this very shop demand drop from the virus.

  • But we're going to see this supply coming in the next few months, So I don't think we've seen the lows yet.

  • Okay, so we haven't seen the lowest talk about the fallout in terms of what you think the economic impact is where you think the fallout will be.

  • Well, I think it's gonna have a dramatic effect, mostly on us.

  • Shell produced.

  • We're going to see production in the United States Plateau and then begin to decline.

  • And that's of course, assuming that this continues, which I think will.

  • That's a question of what could be done if you were in charge here.

  • Is there anything that could be done to end this and this stalemate?

  • Don't call it a nice way to put it.

  • It's the right thing for them to do from an economic point of using the right thing for Saudi Arabia to do for Monica. 00:01:57.780 --> 00:02:1.750 They cannot manage the market by themselves if you think about it. 00:02:1.760 --> 00:02:5.170 There was a 1.7 million barrels a day official cut. 00:02:5.520 --> 00:02:10.750 The Saudis went from 10 6 to 97 They count the for over 50% of the cup.

  • Who can cut an OPEC?

  • It's sort of Rebic.

  • Wait, you a basic.

  • Maybe Iraq a little bit, but they can't do it alone.

  • They need.

  • That's 14 million barrels.

  • They have 102 million barrels.

  • A global production.

  • They need non OPEC.

  • They need Russia with the largest oil producers in the world's.

  • And Russia was really not doing anything.

  • They're a free rider in this hole.

  • Cut and sew.

  • The sword is just said enough is enough.

  • Do you think there's any pressure to be put on Russia?

  • Do you think there's any pressure to put on Saudi over the next couple of days here?

  • I think there's been some pressure put on them and I wouldn't be surprised.

  • The US administration has tried to put some pressure on, but the end of the day, If you're Saudi Arabia, you can't manage this alone and also step back.

  • You have Libya out a 1,000,000 barrels that you have Iran out of the market.

  • Two million barrels.

  • They have Venezuela out of the market. 00:02:59.630 --> 00:03:3.850 I mean, you're talking about a huge potential supply when you look out the next year. 00:03:4.240 --> 00:03:6.900 So how do you make room for all this potential supply? 00:03:7.440 --> 00:03:12.070 You have to get Shell to start slowing down and start declining.

  • And $35 W T.

  • I will lead to a 23 million barrel.

  • They drop in shell production next year.

  • And that's will make room for you know, if you're if you're a public event public public investor, out their retail investor.

  • Looking at this situation today, you would do what?

  • Given what you know.

  • Well, maybe only maybe on some of the some of some of the big public company.

  • Maybe on some M P s.

  • I don't know.

  • I don't know.

  • I don't really own anything.

  • Oh, no.

  • Cannabis.

  • No, I understand.

  • I'm saying you're looking at this.

  • And if you're out there watching us right now, you would tell our viewers what?

  • Well, I would say consumers are gonna benefit from lower prices.

  • I think there'll be a pretty time when Refiners will benefit from the fact that the feed stock will be relatively inexpensive. 00:03:57.770 --> 00:04:3.820 Inevitably, though, chief crude will become a cheap product and put some pressure on margins down the road. 00:04:4.220 --> 00:04:10.870 I think all industrial, all industrial complexes that use energy I'm gonna find that their costs have come down.

  • But look, you were just talking about the airlines.

  • It hasn't helped them all that much, given all the cancellations that they've seen.

  • So the journal said, Lead up.

  • Putin shows again that he's not trumps friend.

  • What about M.

  • B s President Trump may need to use the phone to remind the Crown prince which country has stuck by him during his war with Yemen.

  • His standoff with gutter in missile attacks from Iran.

  • Do you think President Trump calls M B essences help us out?

  • I bet you already called.

  • You think he's already called him and said W T F What did he say when he called?

  • I think it probably quality said, Look, this is creating it.

  • This equilibrium in the market.

  • It's causing stock market to go down, you know, we need you to stabilize the old price.

  • You say that it wasn't exactly what you heard this morning. 00:04:58.090 --> 00:05:3.020 What you heard this morning from the CEO of Aramco is we're going to 12.2, right? 00:05:3.160 --> 00:05:6.830 That's a tremendous increase in sales. 00:05:6.830 --> 00:05:7.290 Think about. 00:05:7.290 --> 00:05:9.610 They're really selling 400 a day to the U. 00:05:9.610 --> 00:05:9.770 S. 00:05:9.770 --> 00:05:10.230 Market.

  • The way they've lowered prices.

  • They went from $3 overpriced tau $4 underpriced in the U.

  • S.

  • Market.

  • Their cells in the US are going to go from 400 a day to a 1,000,000 1/2 2 million barrels a day.

  • Come April, April Lotus.

  • So we're gonna see a huge increase in the US Where does the president come down just in terms of?

  • We want lower gas prices for Americans, But all of a sudden it's so low that it's it's threatening.

  • Jobs in the industry would.

  • Hey, wants it both ways, right?

  • It wants Texas, Louisiana, the Mexico, North Dakota.

  • Exactly.

  • So you can't have it both ways.

  • They ended today.

  • It's all comes down to fundamentals, supply and demand thing.

  • American president saying Hey way, want you to stabilize and not let prices fall lower. 00:05:58.620 --> 00:06:4.010 It's just it's the weird twist tells you where we've come because we're doing so much oil production ourselves.

Saudi Arabia launched a price war against other key producers.

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サウジアラビアの原油価格戦争がエネルギー部門に与える影響とは (What impact Saudi Arabia's oil price war could have on the energy sector)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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