Name: WEEK AHEAD COMMODITY REPORT: 金・銀・原油価格予想。2020年1月6日～10日 (WEEK AHEAD COMMODITY REPORT: Gold, Silver & Crude Oil Price Forecast: 6 - 10 January 2020)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:18:17.000Z
Duration: 11 min 11 s
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程度の副詞

So we just actually seen gold off the open break out to six year highs, something that we have discussed in detail or numerous previous reports as well.

As you no doubt know we are long on gold at the moment.

様態の副詞

So we've essentially seen a 300 point break out off the open where gold closed at 1550 U.

Dollars per ounce on it spiked up to 1580 U.

And not only that, we also still long on our palladium trade or silver positions.

So going into a new week here, things are looking very interesting, and I hope many of you have really capitalized on this. 00:00:49.060 --> 00:01:8.870  We definitely done our best here to make sure that you're all clued up on the current moves, that we have been anticipating the market, especially over the festive period where typically, this, of course is where we do see the precious metals, get that safe haven bid, but also very strong seasonal plays as well that many of you are aware of where, typically, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. 00:01:8.880 --> 00:01:20.360  They have some of their best performance at the end of December than into January and February, especially when a lot of traders are away in those two weeks at the end of December is typically where gold can have a really strong stellar move.

So it's been very interesting now to see gold break above those six year highest now did mention previously that we two positions running those two positions of that toe up almost 1000 points each as well.

And we're also continuing to hold onto our silver trades, which are over 350 points, and palladium, which is up 1500 points.

And, of course, many of you have been following this.

You're being following the analysis week to week.

You know what our positions are, especially if you go back and just watch.

All of our predictions for the metal's going into 2020.

We've essentially come very close now to palladium, breaking out to $2000.

We've actually hit on platinum $1000 per ounce banking us, in fact, 810 points. 00:01:59.800 --> 00:02:3.460  Last week, we are predicted that gold prices would get to 1600. 00:02:3.650 --> 00:02:10.140  That's of course, when the gold prices were trading closest to 14 70 that we were forecasting for 1600 golden.

And now we've broken out to 15 80 now, a lot of this over the last 48 hours or so has, of course, really.

Bean, spurred on by the safe haven play here with gold racing past that 1550 U.

S air strike in Iraq, killing the commander of Iran's elite force, prompting a rush into safety assets.

And of course, no doubt you're very aware of that.

The geopolitical risk, which is escalated intensely over the last few days, especially over the weekend, and this is likely to be the case here as we continue throughout this week.

So with that, let's actually go right over to the charts, will talk you through it.

So gold has essentially gaps up on the open.

In fact, we start to see some profit taking off the back of that retracing back down to 1566 U.

S. 00:02:59.960 --> 00:03:0.790  Dollars per ounce. 00:03:0.840 --> 00:03:3.400  What you're not right now is there is a gap to fill. 00:03:3.410 --> 00:03:6.450  We do have some major news items, which are coming out later in the week. 00:03:6.440 --> 00:03:9.080  One of those, of course, is Friday's nonfarm payroll. 00:03:9.370 --> 00:03:13.500  My expectation is that between now and the end of the month we will tap 1600.

But we're likely to get some back in feeling here.

And, of course, because we've had a fairly significant gap in the Open.

You wanna watch out for over the course this week, this gap essentially getting filled once that gap has been filled?

Likely be they're going to look for by opportunities after that resolution on depending on really, whether geopolitical risk is.

At that point, we want to really see how this plays out over the course off this week.

But at the moment, given that we've had such a significant break out right off the open there, you're likely just to see that normal profit taking that does occur after such a significant gap like that 300 points higher, is where gold has managed to tap on the Sunday through to Monday.

So it's like you get some profit taking bit of retracement.

And then what I would look to do over the course this week has essentially look to capitalize on this movement. 00:03:58.120 --> 00:04:8.770  So if you were to get a gap, feel back down to support, then look up buying evidence essentially back at that previous level of resistance around the six year highs, of course, again around 15 50 level with them. 00:04:8.770 --> 00:04:14.770  If you get well supported at that zone, that could be certainly an area to look out for just opportunities to buy.

If we do see support at that zone, of course, if you've got long positions on and you continue to hold those trades on that spike off the open, some of you may have wished just the bank some partial profits at that point.

And then look to just look in some of those gains that you've had recently.

As I mentioned, Platinum has really been a stellar performer for us as well over the last couple of weeks.

We hit that $1000 level just last week on also banks 810 points automatically on palladium.

At the moment, we're up over 1500 points on this position.

We identified that with you as well a couple of weeks ago, we had that big sell off in mid December and then we had that retracement higher broke out from a bull flag.

And really, that just continued to creep up throughout the festive period.

There really the trick here to understand each year with the metals at this specific time from mid December through to beginning of January is often you get this mid December pull back, which occurs around the FOMC statement the European Central Bank announcement this year.

We also had the UK elections and we also had the trade ties between the U.

But many traders were getting just really too bearish out there without much understanding of how the cycles operate within the precious metal markets and what great opportunities there are to be had over this period.

This is where in mid December we saw these Pullbacks.

Many traders getting really bearish, looking for 1400 gold or 14 30 14 18 and so forth.

We saw many predictions out there for large scale sellers taking us down to these major levels of support.

Before then, we may get a bid for gold as we continue to buy and stack positions or the way between that 14 65 up to the 14 78 100 we built eight positions at that zone on.

We've just seen it absolutely be on a tear since then for gold, silver as well as you mentioned before. 00:05:55.840 --> 00:06:1.510  We built positions from $16.60 buyouts and also sub $17 we still liked for Abi. 00:06:1.590 --> 00:06:4.240  We've got three positions on that which we maintain in the moment. 00:06:4.240 --> 00:06:11.840  Obviously the price of $18.17 right now up over 350 points on those three trades will continue to hold those trades.

What I do like the moment is, of course, the weekly chart Higher timeframe here You've seen this significant break out off the bull flag with more specifically no, only on silver identified that but gold gold is the one that we've really kept our eye on here day today and just managing the trades and with the expectation that we would get this break out of a ball flag, we saw that developing quite some time ago, the potential to break above it during the Christmas infested period.

We had a nice break out the neckline last week, an additional breakout, really, over the course of the last additional breakout just on this Sunday Open as well, which has pushed us above the six year highs of swing highs here as well on ass just worked out absolutely perfectly for our positioning there on gold.

I'm sure many of you have capitalized on this from the message is that we get on YouTube and it's great, by the way, thanks to all of your feedback and all the messages that we do get the Golden Circle Club. 00:06:58.810 --> 00:07:5.370  I'm so pleased that so many of you have capitalized on this and you haven't bean snoozing over the festive period or you have. 00:07:5.370 --> 00:07:7.500  But you had your positions on beforehand. 00:07:7.500 --> 00:07:9.940  So you are able to capitalize on these moves. 00:07:9.940 --> 00:07:13.540  And definitely the worst thing you could have done over this period would have been too short.

That's an absolute no no from mid December, so I'm sure none of you have done that.

But it's just been absolutely phenomenal.

Run here on the precious metals over the last three weeks now, now moving over as well to the crude oil market.

We have gapped up on the open for crude oil.

I'm looking for resistance around 64 50 level on support, essentially to come back down to around the 60 two's owner so you can see again we gapped on the open.

There is potential for us to pull back here on oil.

Obviously, geopolitical risk is still very forefront of the moments.

You really need to take that into account if you go for any so short soil that any sort breaking news items with escalation in the Middle East could very quickly see oil catch a bid. 00:07:56.100 --> 00:08:6.890  But otherwise I would be expected the potential for retracement on take us back to approximately the 62 level over the course this week and then 64 50 resistance around that zone 64 50 to 65. 00:08:6.890 --> 00:08:15.210  Essentially, I'm looking for a range bound within those sort of level 62 to 65 as we go into next week with gold in fact, going to next week as well.

We did have a significant gap in the open over 300 point move.

We could still come back to revisit the highest here and come back around 15 85.

As many of you know, we're ultimately looking for 1600 over the run up off this move that we've seen so far from mid December.

I am looking for a high to get put in at least 1600 if not higher than that over this period or British momentum that we're seeing with gold.

But short term because we have seen that big gap in the Open.

You want to watch out for the potential to retrace back to the 15 50 zone, then look at buying evidence at that zone.

If there is no buying evidence and we do see a pullback in the correction at that point, then obviously you want to just hold pause, see what other major news items might be playing out.

We have nonfarm payroll, which will be later on this week as well it's possible that we could have a more significant pull back because what we're seeing now is all of the traders who missed the move over the Christmas period that we've bean identifying for you in discussing time and time again that it's a great time of year to capitalize on the gold, silver, platinum, palladium trades.

Now that many traders are coming back from their festive breaks, they're going to see these big moves on the precious metals, particularly gold, and very likely they'll foam Oh in and get into high.

And it's just something to be aware of that we might start seeing traders just trying to get in too high.

They missed a lot of the move, which I'm sure many of you did.

And I'm sure you manage to capitalize on these moves.

But they're all going to be a lot of traders and now start to foam oh, into gold too high and as a result they may get punished for getting in too high and not take advantage of order.

These opportunities that we've had now over the last three weeks on the gold market.

So again, I'm really pleased that so many of you have been able to capitalize on these moves.

Are you only getting back to the screens now?

You're looking for fresh opportunities with commodities with the precious metals recruit oil, and you would like a further age in your trading and really make sure that you're starting 2020 on the right for And you're not using these outdated technical strategies, which just don't work in today's market conditions in 2020 you want to make sure you have an edge in your trading where you're taking into account market intelligence trading research cycles in the market, seasonality, fundamentals, trade flow.

What the hedge funds are money managers doing versus the retail traders.

All of these will build up a research driven approach to your trading and give you a much better edge.

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