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  • The world witnessed the biggest protest here in Hong Kong in decades.

  • Protesters are determined to block a new law that would allow extraditions to mainland China.

  • Police confronted them with tear gas and rubber bullets.

  • Beijing is not happy with what’s going on, very frustrated.

  • All flights in and out of Hong Kong have been cancelled as protesters occupied the airport.

  • There are growing fears that the Chinese government may use the military to crackdown on protesters in Hong Kong.

  • I think the movement has been able to maintain a high level of support

  • because the perception has been that most of the violence has been used against the unarmed protesters.

  • That's just caused a lot of outrage amongst Hongkongers.

  • We examined close to 330 major violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2006.

  • And these were major campaigns that were challenging incumbent regimes

  • or they were vying for territorial self-determination or succession.

  • And the major finding of the research was that the nonviolent campaigns

  • had been twice as successful as the violent campaigns at achieving their objectives.

  • So the data has been updated through 2014 and the findings were almost exactly the same.

  • What we found through the research to be the most significant variable

  • in determining the outcomes of these campaigns was the size and the diversity of participation.

  • In the dataset, we found that the average nonviolent campaign attracted something like 11 times

  • the level of participants as the average violent campaign,

  • which makes sense because it's so much easier to participate in nonviolent resistance

  • compared to armed insurgencies.

  • The physical moral barriers to participation are much lower,

  • so young and old, elderly, abled body, disabled, lots of people can participate in nonviolent resistance

  • because there are so many ways to get involved, thousands probably at this point.

  • The risk also of targeting police and security forces with violence or perceived violence

  • is that they are much less likely to sympathize with the protesters when they're being attacked.

  • We've seen this in many cases and this tends to be a strategic advantage of nonviolent resistance,

  • whether it was in the Philippines in 1986 or in Ukraine during the Orange Revolution in Maidan.

  • You saw major defections by elements of the security forces

  • when they were faced with disciplined unarmed protesters.

  • We found that the average duration of a nonviolent campaign was three years.

  • The average duration for violent campaigns incidentally was nine years.

  • The challenge is just being able to maintain the focus in the long-term perspective

  • and be able to come up with ways to declare small victories

  • along the way to people to keep people engaged,

  • and not to escalate without being able to sustain that level of engagement.

  • So I think those are a few principles at least of what effective civil resistance has historically looked like

  • but what forms it will continue to take in Hong Kong is to be seen.

The world witnessed the biggest protest here in Hong Kong in decades.

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暴力抗議は実際に効果があるのか? (Do Violent Protests Actually Work?)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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