クリス・マシューズが中間選挙の予測を立てる｜モーニング・ジョー｜MSNBC (Chris Matthews Makes His Midterm Predictions | Morning Joe

字幕表動画を再生する

BILL KARINS. >> DEFINITELY.
>> DEFINITELY. >> THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU. >>> ALL RIGHT.
>>> ALL RIGHT. HEY, CHRIS MATTHEWS, I WANT TO
HEY, CHRIS MATTHEWS, I WANT TO JUST ASK YOU A GENERAL QUESTION
JUST ASK YOU A GENERAL QUESTION ABOUT WHERE WE ARE PLIT KREEOLIT
ABOUT WHERE WE ARE PLIT KREEOLIT RIGHT NOW.
RIGHT NOW. FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE THEIR
FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE THEIR DEFINING ELECTION WAS THE
DEFINING ELECTION WAS THE ELECTION OF JFK IN 1960.
ELECTION OF JFK IN 1960. FOR ME, FOR A LOT OF DIFFERENT
FOR ME, FOR A LOT OF DIFFERENT REASONS, IT WAS REAGAN IN 1980.
REASONS, IT WAS REAGAN IN 1980. I ALWAYS REMEMBER ON THE FRIDAY
I ALWAYS REMEMBER ON THE FRIDAY BEFORE IT WAS A TOSS-UP, IT WAS
BEFORE IT WAS A TOSS-UP, IT WAS GOING TO BE VERY CLOSE.
GOING TO BE VERY CLOSE. WE’RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
WE’RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
EXACTLY WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN THIS FALL.
THIS FALL. YOU HAVE A SERIES OF POLLS OUT
YOU HAVE A SERIES OF POLLS OUT SHOWING DONALD TRUMP IN THE MID
SHOWING DONALD TRUMP IN THE MID 30s, MITCH McCONNELL IS NOW
30s, MITCH McCONNELL IS NOW TALKING ABOUT A KNIFE FIGHT IN
TALKING ABOUT A KNIFE FIGHT IN THE SENATE.
THE SENATE. YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHICH WAY
YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHICH WAY THESE THINGS ARE GOING, BUT I
THESE THINGS ARE GOING, BUT I WAS JUST CURIOUS WHEN YOU WERE
WAS JUST CURIOUS WHEN YOU WERE WITH TIP O’NEAL IN 1980 DID YOU
WITH TIP O’NEAL IN 1980 DID YOU SEE IT COMING?
SEE IT COMING? DOES IT FEEL LIKE A SIMILAR WAVE
DOES IT FEEL LIKE A SIMILAR WAVE THIS YEAR OR IS IT JUST TOO
THIS YEAR OR IS IT JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL?
EARLY TO TELL? >> WELL, I REALLY WAS WITH HIM
>> WELL, I REALLY WAS WITH HIM FROM ’81 ON SO ’81 HAD ALREADY
FROM ’81 ON SO ’81 HAD ALREADY HAPPENED, BUT ’82 WAS THE ONE I
HAPPENED, BUT ’82 WAS THE ONE I WORKED ON AND WE PICKED UP 26
WORKED ON AND WE PICKED UP 26 SEATS AND THAT FELT LIKE A
SEATS AND THAT FELT LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WAVE BECAUSE THE
PRETTY GOOD WAVE BECAUSE THE SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE
SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE RECESSION COMING ON AND I THINK
RECESSION COMING ON AND I THINK THE SPEAKER DID A HELL OF A JOB
THE SPEAKER DID A HELL OF A JOB OF RAISING THOSE ISSUES.
OF RAISING THOSE ISSUES. I THINK THIS IS STRONGER.
I THINK THIS IS STRONGER. I THINK IT’S STRONGER THAN 26, I
I THINK IT’S STRONGER THAN 26, I THINK IT’S A REAL WAVE,
THINK IT’S A REAL WAVE, SOMETHING LIKE 94, 74.
SOMETHING LIKE 94, 74. I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE
I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE PICKED UP 30 TO 40 SEATS IN THE
PICKED UP 30 TO 40 SEATS IN THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE CAN WOBBLY
HOUSE AND THE SENATE CAN WOBBLY RIGHT NOW, IT’S IN OUR COUNTRY
RIGHT NOW, IT’S IN OUR COUNTRY ALL OVER THE COUNTRY IT LOOKS
ALL OVER THE COUNTRY IT LOOKS LIKE THESE RACES ARE COMING DOWN
LIKE THESE RACES ARE COMING DOWN TO -- I THINK DONNELLY WILL WIN
TO -- I THINK DONNELLY WILL WIN IN INDIANA, I THINK MANCHIN IS
IN INDIANA, I THINK MANCHIN IS GOING TO WIN NOW, I THINK
GOING TO WIN NOW, I THINK THERE’S SOME SAFETY FOR SOME OF
THERE’S SOME SAFETY FOR SOME OF THESE GUYS, BUT INGMAR INOF
THESE GUYS, BUT INGMAR INOF ERROR IS LIKE -- REMEMBER JUST
ERROR IS LIKE -- REMEMBER JUST AS RECENTLY AS ’16 WE LOOKED AT
AS RECENTLY AS ’16 WE LOOKED AT ALL THOSE RACES IN PENNSYLVANIA
ALL THOSE RACES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND EVERYBODY SAID, OH, EDDIE
AND EVERYBODY SAID, OH, EDDIE RENT DELL SAID WE WILL WIN BY
RENT DELL SAID WE WILL WIN BY THREE.
THREE. THAT’S MARGIN OF ERROR.
THAT’S MARGIN OF ERROR. WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT TWO
WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT TWO OR THREE POINTS YOU DON’T KNOW
OR THREE POINTS YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT.
WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT. IT’S TOO HARD TO PICK.
IT’S TOO HARD TO PICK. THIS ELECTION WILL BE HARD TO
THIS ELECTION WILL BE HARD TO PICK BUT I DO THINK THERE IS A
PICK BUT I DO THINK THERE IS A WAVE AGAINST THE PRESIDENT, I
WAVE AGAINST THE PRESIDENT, I THINK THIS LAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE
THINK THIS LAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE BEEN TERRIBLE FOR HIM, I LOOKED
BEEN TERRIBLE FOR HIM, I LOOKED AT THE NUMBERS DROPPING DOWN TO
AT THE NUMBERS DROPPING DOWN TO THE LOW 30s FOR HIM IN APPROVAL.
THE LOW 30s FOR HIM IN APPROVAL. THESE ELECTIONS AS YOU KNOW,
THESE ELECTIONS AS YOU KNOW, JOE, CHANGE HISTORY FOR 30
JOE, CHANGE HISTORY FOR 30 YEARS.
YEARS. PEOPLE WILL GET ELECTED THIS
PEOPLE WILL GET ELECTED THIS NOVEMBER THAT WOULD HAVE NEVER
NOVEMBER THAT WOULD HAVE NEVER HAD A SHOT, PEOPLE LIKE -- TOM
HAD A SHOT, PEOPLE LIKE -- TOM FOLEY OUT IN EASTERN WASHINGTON
FOLEY OUT IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE WAS ELECTED ON A FLUKE, HE
STATE WAS ELECTED ON A FLUKE, HE FILED THE LAST DAY, HE GOT INTO
FILED THE LAST DAY, HE GOT INTO THE CONGRESS, HE SERVED FOR 30
THE CONGRESS, HE SERVED FOR 30 YEARS, HE BECAME SPEAKER OF THE
YEARS, HE BECAME SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE CAME
HOUSE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE CAME ALONG IN ’94.
ALONG IN ’94. IT HAPPENS.
IT HAPPENS. JIM HOWARD A HIGH SCHOOL TEACHER
JIM HOWARD A HIGH SCHOOL TEACHER IN NEW JERSEY GOT ELECTED FOR
IN NEW JERSEY GOT ELECTED FOR HIS WHOLE LIFE BECAUSE OF ONE OF
HIS WHOLE LIFE BECAUSE OF ONE OF THESE WAVES.
THESE WAVES. SO I THINK YOU’RE GOING -- AND
SO I THINK YOU’RE GOING -- AND IF BETO WINS DOWN THERE HE WILL
IF BETO WINS DOWN THERE HE WILL BE A MAJOR NATIONAL FIGURE
BE A MAJOR NATIONAL FIGURE PRETTY QUICKLY.
PRETTY QUICKLY. >> OH, MY GOSH.
>> OH, MY GOSH. >> A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE YOU
>> A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE YOU WILL SEE WHOLE CAREERS MADE OR
WILL SEE WHOLE CAREERS MADE OR LOST AND WOMEN RUNNING, MINORITY
LOST AND WOMEN RUNNING, MINORITY WOMEN, WOMEN OF COLOR, I THINK
WOMEN, WOMEN OF COLOR, I THINK THE FACT THERE ARE SO MANY
THE FACT THERE ARE SO MANY RUNNING THERE ARE GOING TO BE SO
RUNNING THERE ARE GOING TO BE SO MANY THAT WIN AND THEY WILL BE
MANY THAT WIN AND THEY WILL BE THERE THEIR WHOLE LIVES.
THERE THEIR WHOLE LIVES. I THINK THIS ELECTION IS NOT
I THINK THIS ELECTION IS NOT JUST A ONE-OFF.
JUST A ONE-OFF. I THINK THIS ELECTION WILL BE
I THINK THIS ELECTION WILL BE VERY BIG FOR THE DEMOCRATS.
VERY BIG FOR THE DEMOCRATS. THEY MIGHT JUST WIN THE SENATE.
THEY MIGHT JUST WIN THE SENATE. IT’S REALLY GOING TO BE POWERFUL
IT’S REALLY GOING TO BE POWERFUL STUFF.
STUFF. >> BY THE WAY, IF YOU SEE BETO
>> BY THE WAY, IF YOU SEE BETO WIN IN ’18 YOU WILL PROBABLY SEE
WIN IN ’18 YOU WILL PROBABLY SEE HIM ON A TICKET IN ’20 AS WELL.
HIM ON A TICKET IN ’20 AS WELL. >> I AGREE.
>> I AGREE. >> I WANT TO ASK YOU THIS
>> I WANT TO ASK YOU THIS QUESTION I’VE BEEN ASKING PEOPLE
QUESTION I’VE BEEN ASKING PEOPLE THE PAST FEW DAYS, DONALD TRUMP
THE PAST FEW DAYS, DONALD TRUMP WAS SITTING AT 44, 45% EARLY
WAS SITTING AT 44, 45% EARLY SPRING AND NOW HE’S DROPPED BACK
SPRING AND NOW HE’S DROPPED BACK DOWN INTO THE 30s.
DOWN INTO THE 30s. I KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF
I KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF REASONS, MAYBE CHILD SEPARATION,
REASONS, MAYBE CHILD SEPARATION, MAYBE HELSINKI, I’M JUST
MAYBE HELSINKI, I’M JUST CURIOUS, WHY DO YOU THINK THE
CURIOUS, WHY DO YOU THINK THE PRESIDENT WAS MOVING INTO
PRESIDENT WAS MOVING INTO TERRITORY WHERE HE HAD SOME OF
TERRITORY WHERE HE HAD SOME OF HIS HIGHER APPROVAL RATINGS
HIS HIGHER APPROVAL RATINGS SINCE BECOMING A POLITICIAN JUST
SINCE BECOMING A POLITICIAN JUST SIX MONTHS AGO AND NOW HE’S BACK
SIX MONTHS AGO AND NOW HE’S BACK TO THE 30s?
TO THE 30s? >> THE ECONOMICS, HE’S BATTLING
>> THE ECONOMICS, HE’S BATTLING HIS OWN GOOD ECONOMIC NUMBERS.
HIS OWN GOOD ECONOMIC NUMBERS. HE HAS GREAT NUMBERS.
HE HAS GREAT NUMBERS. WHO WOULDN’T BE BRAGGING ABOUT
WHO WOULDN’T BE BRAGGING ABOUT THESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES DOWN
THESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES DOWN WELL BELOW 4 AND YOU HAVE A
WELL BELOW 4 AND YOU HAVE A MARKET THAT’S BOOMING BACK UP
MARKET THAT’S BOOMING BACK UP THERE TO 2600 -- 26,000.
THERE TO 2600 -- 26,000. YOU HAVE GREAT ECONOMIC NUMBERS.
YOU HAVE GREAT ECONOMIC NUMBERS. IT’S HIM.
IT’S HIM. ESPECIALLY DURING THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY DURING THIS TIME WE’RE HONORING -- REMEMBERING --
WE’RE HONORING -- REMEMBERING -- MARKING, I GUESS, 9/11.
MARKING, I GUESS, 9/11. THE GREAT THING ABOUT 9/11 AND
THE GREAT THING ABOUT 9/11 AND THERE WAS ONE GREAT THING ABOUT
THERE WAS ONE GREAT THING ABOUT ALL THAT HORROR, IN THE WEEKS
ALL THAT HORROR, IN THE WEEKS THEREAFTER YOU SAW A UNITY IN
THEREAFTER YOU SAW A UNITY IN THIS COUNTRY WE HAD NEVER FELT
THIS COUNTRY WE HAD NEVER FELT SINCE MAYBE WORLD WAR II.
SINCE MAYBE WORLD WAR II. >> CORRECT.
>> CORRECT. >> A TREMENDOUS -- THE YUPPIES
>> A TREMENDOUS -- THE YUPPIES AT THEIR SIDEWALK CAFES WERE
AT THEIR SIDEWALK CAFES WERE CHEERING THE FIREFIGHTERS GOING
CHEERING THE FIREFIGHTERS GOING BY ON THEIR ENGINES.
BY ON THEIR ENGINES. THE CLASS DIFFERENCES WERE
THE CLASS DIFFERENCES WERE RESOLVED FOR A WHILE.
RESOLVED FOR A WHILE. THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS LOOKING
THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS LOOKING OUT FOR THE FIRST RESPONDERS IN
OUT FOR THE FIRST RESPONDERS IN A WAY THAT WAS WONDERFUL.
A WAY THAT WAS WONDERFUL. PEOPLE WERE LOOKING -- PEOPLE --
PEOPLE WERE LOOKING -- PEOPLE -- YOU KNOW, KIDS WHEN THEY GROW UP
YOU KNOW, KIDS WHEN THEY GROW UP THEY WANT TO BE NURSES AND THEY
THEY WANT TO BE NURSES AND THEY WANT TO BE FIREFIGHTERS.
WANT TO BE FIREFIGHTERS. THAT’S WHAT YOU WANT TO BE WHEN
THAT’S WHAT YOU WANT TO BE WHEN YOU’RE FIVE OR SEVEN YEARS OLD.
YOU’RE FIVE OR SEVEN YEARS OLD. YOU NATURALLY HAVE SORT OF A
YOU NATURALLY HAVE SORT OF A HEROIC INSTINCT.
HEROIC INSTINCT. YOU WANT TO BE A HERO TO PEOPLE,
YOU WANT TO BE A HERO TO PEOPLE, YOU WANT TO BE THE GOOD GUY OR
YOU WANT TO BE THE GOOD GUY OR GOOD WOMAN.
GOOD WOMAN. I THINK 9/11 BROUGHT THAT
I THINK 9/11 BROUGHT THAT INSTINCT OF KIDS OUT IN US.
INSTINCT OF KIDS OUT IN US. I SPOKE AT THE FRIENDLY SONS
I SPOKE AT THE FRIENDLY SONS THAT SPRING AND ALL I HAD TO DO
THAT SPRING AND ALL I HAD TO DO WAS TALK ABOUT THE IRISH
WAS TALK ABOUT THE IRISH TRADITION OF FIREFIGHTING IN NEW
TRADITION OF FIREFIGHTING IN NEW YORK CITY AND I JUST STARTED
YORK CITY AND I JUST STARTED LISTING NAMES, YOU KNOW, MOST OF
LISTING NAMES, YOU KNOW, MOST OF THE GUYS THAT GOT KILLED GOING
THE GUYS THAT GOT KILLED GOING UP THOSE STAIRS WERE IRISH
UP THOSE STAIRS WERE IRISH BECAUSE OF THOSE LONG GENERATION
BECAUSE OF THOSE LONG GENERATION AFTER GENERATION TRADITIONS IN
AFTER GENERATION TRADITIONS IN NEW YORK CITY OF ALWAYS BEING A
NEW YORK CITY OF ALWAYS BEING A FIREFIGHTER.
FIREFIGHTER. OF COURSE, WE HAD HISPANIC GUYS
OF COURSE, WE HAD HISPANIC GUYS AND AFRICAN-AMERICAN PEOPLE,
AND AFRICAN-AMERICAN PEOPLE, TOO, BUT THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS
TOO, BUT THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS FEEL ABOUT THE WORKING CLASS AND
FEEL ABOUT THE WORKING CLASS AND HOW IMPORTANT THEY ARE IN A BIG
HOW IMPORTANT THEY ARE IN A BIG CITY LIKE NEW YORK.
CITY LIKE NEW YORK. THE WORKING CLASS ARE THE ONES
THE WORKING CLASS ARE THE ONES THAT SAVE YOU WHEN YOU ARE IN
THAT SAVE YOU WHEN YOU ARE IN TROUBLE.
TROUBLE. THEY ARE THE COPS THAT COME, THE
THEY ARE THE COPS THAT COME, THE EMERGENCY WORKERS, THEY ARE THE
EMERGENCY WORKERS, THEY ARE THE WORKING GUYS AND WOMEN WHO COME
WORKING GUYS AND WOMEN WHO COME TO SAVE YOU WHEN YOU’RE SCARED
TO SAVE YOU WHEN YOU’RE SCARED TO DEATH YOU’RE GOING TO DIE.
TO DEATH YOU’RE GOING TO DIE. THEY ARE THE ONES -- WHEN YOU
THEY ARE THE ONES -- WHEN YOU ARE AUPPY AND MAKE A LOT OF
ARE AUPPY AND MAKE A LOT OF MONEY AND MASTER OF THE UNIVERSE
MONEY AND MASTER OF THE UNIVERSE YOU FORGET ABOUT THOSE PEOPLE
YOU FORGET ABOUT THOSE PEOPLE AND YOU LOOK DOWN ON THEM.
AND YOU LOOK DOWN ON THEM. WELL, YOU CAN’T BECAUSE IN THE
WELL, YOU CAN’T BECAUSE IN THE END THEY ARE THE ONES THAT SAVE
END THEY ARE THE ONES THAT SAVE YOU AND I THINK THAT WAS THE
YOU AND I THINK THAT WAS THE WONDERFUL THING ABOUT 9/11 AND
WONDERFUL THING ABOUT 9/11 AND AFTERWARDS PEOPLE SAID, DO YOU
AFTERWARDS PEOPLE SAID, DO YOU KNOW WHAT, THEY ARE THE GOOD
KNOW WHAT, THEY ARE THE GOOD GUYS.
GUYS. I FELT THAT.
I FELT THAT. >> JEFFREY GOLDBERG, I’M CURIOUS
>> JEFFREY GOLDBERG, I’M CURIOUS YOUR THOUGHTS ON, AGAIN, DONALD
YOUR THOUGHTS ON, AGAIN, DONALD TRUMP’S FALL FROM 44, 45% TO 35,
TRUMP’S FALL FROM 44, 45% TO 35, 36%.
36%. I KNOW FOR A LOT OF US AND I
I KNOW FOR A LOT OF US AND I WILL JUST SPEAK FOR MYSELF IN
WILL JUST SPEAK FOR MYSELF IN THE MEDIA, IT ALL SEEMS BAD.
THE MEDIA, IT ALL SEEMS BAD. THERE’S AN OUTRAGEOUS STATEMENT
THERE’S AN OUTRAGEOUS STATEMENT EVERY DAY, THERE IS -- THERE IS
EVERY DAY, THERE IS -- THERE IS A BREACHING OF A CONSTITUTIONAL
A BREACHING OF A CONSTITUTIONAL NORM EVERY DAY.
NORM EVERY DAY. >> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> SO IT’S TOUGHER FOR ME TO
>> SO IT’S TOUGHER FOR ME TO FIGURE OUT WHY HE WOULD BE AT 44
FIGURE OUT WHY HE WOULD BE AT 44 OR 45% AFTER CHARLOTTESVILLE,
OR 45% AFTER CHARLOTTESVILLE, AFTER RETWEETING NEO NAZI
AFTER RETWEETING NEO NAZI TWEETS, BUT SOMETHING HAS
TWEETS, BUT SOMETHING HAS HAPPENED WITH INDEPENDENTS
HAPPENED WITH INDEPENDENTS ESPECIALLY.
ESPECIALLY. ANY GUESS WHAT THAT MAY HAVE
ANY GUESS WHAT THAT MAY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS?
BEEN OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS? >> YEAH, YOU KNOW, I’VE THOUGHT
>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, I’VE THOUGHT ABOUT THIS A LOT.
ABOUT THIS A LOT. REMEMBER WHEN YOUR KIDS ARE
REMEMBER WHEN YOUR KIDS ARE LITTLE AND YOU TAKE THEM TO THE
LITTLE AND YOU TAKE THEM TO THE CIRCUS AND THE CIRCUS IS FUN FOR
CIRCUS AND THE CIRCUS IS FUN FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS, BUT IMAGINE
TWO OR THREE HOURS, BUT IMAGINE HAVING TO SIT THROUGH THE CIRCUS
HAVING TO SIT THROUGH THE CIRCUS FOR 36 OR 48 HOURS STRAIGHT,
FOR 36 OR 48 HOURS STRAIGHT, RIGHT, BOMBARDED WITH THE NOISE
RIGHT, BOMBARDED WITH THE NOISE AND NONSENSE OF A CIRCUS.
AND NONSENSE OF A CIRCUS. I THINK PEOPLE ARE BECOMING
I THINK PEOPLE ARE BECOMING INORD TO THE DRAMA, THEY’RE
INORD TO THE DRAMA, THEY’RE BECOMING TIRED OF THE EXCESS
BECOMING TIRED OF THE EXCESS DRAMA AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE
DRAMA AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE SHOW -- THE SHOW IS MAYBE MOVING
SHOW -- THE SHOW IS MAYBE MOVING PAST ITS SELL BY DATE.
PAST ITS SELL BY DATE. I MEAN, THE CORE IS GOING TO
I MEAN, THE CORE IS GOING TO STAY THE CORE, BUT THE CORE
STAY THE CORE, BUT THE CORE SEEMS TO SHRINK A LITTLE BIT
SEEMS TO SHRINK A LITTLE BIT AND, YOU KNOW, THE BEST THING
AND, YOU KNOW, THE BEST THING THAT DONALD TRUMP OBVIOUSLY
THAT DONALD TRUMP OBVIOUSLY COULD DO FOR REPUBLICANS RUNNING
COULD DO FOR REPUBLICANS RUNNING RIGHT NOW IS STOP TWEETING VERY
RIGHT NOW IS STOP TWEETING VERY STRANGE TWEETS ABOUT THE VARIOUS
STRANGE TWEETS ABOUT THE VARIOUS INVESTIGATIONS AND ABOUT HILLARY
INVESTIGATIONS AND ABOUT HILLARY CLINTON AND BE -- TO BORROW A
CLINTON AND BE -- TO BORROW A TERM THAT HAS -- THAT HE’S
TERM THAT HAS -- THAT HE’S EMPLOYED -- BE A LITTLE BIT MORE
EMPLOYED -- BE A LITTLE BIT MORE PRESIDENTIAL.
PRESIDENTIAL. I THINK JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
I THINK JUST A LITTLE BIT OF QUIET MIGHT ACTUALLY HELP.
QUIET MIGHT ACTUALLY HELP. >> AND THAT’S OF COURSE WHAT
>> AND THAT’S OF COURSE WHAT GARY COHEN WAS TRYING TO TELL
GARY COHEN WAS TRYING TO TELL HIM TO DO.
HIM TO DO. WILLIE, OF COURSE, AS YOU KNOW
WILLIE, OF COURSE, AS YOU KNOW MOST OF MY POLITICAL THEORIES GO
MOST OF MY POLITICAL THEORIES GO BACK TO JOHNNY CARSON.
BACK TO JOHNNY CARSON. CARSON WHO OF COURSE SAID YOU
CARSON WHO OF COURSE SAID YOU WIN IN CENTRAL TIME ZONE, BUT
WIN IN CENTRAL TIME ZONE, BUT ALSO CARSON UNDERSTOOD HE WENT
ALSO CARSON UNDERSTOOD HE WENT INTO PEOPLE’S BEDROOMS EVERY
INTO PEOPLE’S BEDROOMS EVERY NIGHT AND IF HE WAS TOO SHRILL,
NIGHT AND IF HE WAS TOO SHRILL, IF HE HAD AN EDGE AT SOME POINT
IF HE HAD AN EDGE AT SOME POINT THEY WOULD JUST BECOME
THEY WOULD JUST BECOME EXHAUSTED.
EXHAUSTED. I’VE SEEN THAT WITH PRESIDENTS,
I’VE SEEN THAT WITH PRESIDENTS, TOO.
TOO. EVERY PRESIDENT HAS A SELL BY
EVERY PRESIDENT HAS A SELL BY DATE, BUT WE’LL TELL YOU A LOT
DATE, BUT WE’LL TELL YOU A LOT OF MY FRIENDS IN PENSACOLA THAT
OF MY FRIENDS IN PENSACOLA THAT STILL WOULD VOTE FOR DONALD
STILL WOULD VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP TOMORROW DO SAY THEY JUST
TRUMP TOMORROW DO SAY THEY JUST DON’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT HIM
DON’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT HIM ANYMORE.
ANYMORE. THEY’RE JUST EXHAUSTED BY IT
THEY’RE JUST EXHAUSTED BY IT ALL.
ALL. I WONDER IF JEFFREY IS NOT RIGHT
I WONDER IF JEFFREY IS NOT RIGHT THAT INDEPENDENTS PERHAPS WHO
THAT INDEPENDENTS PERHAPS WHO DON’T FEEL AN UNDYING LOYALTY TO
DON’T FEEL AN UNDYING LOYALTY TO DONALD TRUMP AND REPUBLICANISM
DONALD TRUMP AND REPUBLICANISM MIGHT JUST SAY, ENOUGH.
MIGHT JUST SAY, ENOUGH. NO MAS.
NO MAS. I CAN’T TAKE THE MADNESS
I CAN’T TAKE THE MADNESS ANYMORE.
ANYMORE. >> THERE ARE PLENTY OF
>> THERE ARE PLENTY OF REPUBLICANS YOU KNOW WE HAVE
REPUBLICANS YOU KNOW WE HAVE TALKED TO A LOT OF THE SAME
TALKED TO A LOT OF THE SAME PEOPLE OR PEOPLE YOU TALKED TO
PEOPLE OR PEOPLE YOU TALKED TO ON THE STREET WHO VOTED FOR
ON THE STREET WHO VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP BECAUSE HE WAS
DONALD TRUMP BECAUSE HE WAS CHANGE, HE WAS GOING TO SHAKE IT
CHANGE, HE WAS GOING TO SHAKE IT UP, BECAUSE THEY DIDN’T LIKE
UP, BECAUSE THEY DIDN’T LIKE HILLARY CLINTON, BUT IF YOU LOOK
HILLARY CLINTON, BUT IF YOU LOOK IN THOSE NUMBERS FROM THE CNN
IN THOSE NUMBERS FROM THE CNN POLL THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY AMONG
POLL THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY AMONG INDEPENDENTS HE HAS LOST 33% OF
INDEPENDENTS HE HAS LOST 33% OF INDEPENDENTS IN A MONTH.
INDEPENDENTS IN A MONTH. IS.
IS. >> WOW.
>> WOW. >> HE WAS AT 47 AND HE IS DOWN
>> HE WAS AT 47 AND HE IS DOWN TO 31.
TO 31. IF YOUR THEORY IS TRUE, IF
IF YOUR THEORY IS TRUE, IF DEMOCRATS HAVE A WAVE AND THEY
DEMOCRATS HAVE A WAVE AND THEY TAKE THE HOUSE AND MAYBE EVEN
TAKE THE HOUSE AND MAYBE EVEN THE SENATE, IF THIS IS THE
THE SENATE, IF THIS IS THE CULTURE WE HAVE RIGHT NOW
CULTURE WE HAVE RIGHT NOW POLITICALLY WITH DONALD TRUMP
POLITICALLY WITH DONALD TRUMP OWNING WASHINGTON, HE’S GOT THE
OWNING WASHINGTON, HE’S GOT THE HOUSE, HE’S GOT THE SENATE, WHAT
HOUSE, HE’S GOT THE SENATE, WHAT DOES WASHINGTON LOOK LIKE WHEN
DOES WASHINGTON LOOK LIKE WHEN HE’S GOT AN ADVERSARIAL HOUSE OR
HE’S GOT AN ADVERSARIAL HOUSE OR MAYBE AN ADVERSARIAL SENATE?
MAYBE AN ADVERSARIAL SENATE? >> AS RICHARD NIXON DISCOVERED
>> AS RICHARD NIXON DISCOVERED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHEN
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHEN HE WON REELECTION WITH ALMOST
HE WON REELECTION WITH ALMOST EVERY STATE, HE HAD LOST THE
EVERY STATE, HE HAD LOST THE SUBPOENA POWER AGAIN.
SUBPOENA POWER AGAIN. I THINK HE SAID IN THE MIDDLE OF
I THINK HE SAID IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WE LOST IT AGAIN.
THE NIGHT WE LOST IT AGAIN. HE KNEW WHAT WAS COMING.
HE KNEW WHAT WAS COMING. THE SUBPOENA POWER NEEDS THAT
THE SUBPOENA POWER NEEDS THAT JERRY NADLER CAN SPEND MONTHS OF
JERRY NADLER CAN SPEND MONTHS OF ’19 GETTING READY FOR SOMETHING,
’19 GETTING READY FOR SOMETHING, WHETHER IT’S IMPEACHMENT OR NOT,
WHETHER IT’S IMPEACHMENT OR NOT, BUT IT’S CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO
BUT IT’S CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE PRESIDENT.
BE PLEASANT FOR THE PRESIDENT. ALL THOSE COMMITTEE CHAIRS ON
ALL THOSE COMMITTEE CHAIRS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE HILL WILL HAVE
BOTH SIDES OF THE HILL WILL HAVE SUBPOENA POWER AND THEY’RE GOING
SUBPOENA POWER AND THEY’RE GOING TO USE IT.
TO USE IT. YOU CAN SEE WHAT HAPPENED IN THE
YOU CAN SEE WHAT HAPPENED IN THE HEARINGS WITH BRETT KAVANAUGH
HEARINGS WITH BRETT KAVANAUGH WITH CORY BOOKER AND KAMALA
WITH CORY BOOKER AND KAMALA HARRIS’ PERFORMANCE.
HARRIS’ PERFORMANCE. THEY ARE RARING TO GO, THEY
THEY ARE RARING TO GO, THEY CAN’T WAIT TO GET THE SUBPOENA
CAN’T WAIT TO GET THE SUBPOENA POWER AND I THINK THEY’RE GOING
POWER AND I THINK THEY’RE GOING TO PLAY IT.
TO PLAY IT. IT DOESN’T NECESSARILY END UP
IT DOESN’T NECESSARILY END UP WELL.
WELL. WE SAW BACK IN THE 80th CONGRESS
WE SAW BACK IN THE 80th CONGRESS BACK AFTER -- AFTER REPUBLICANS
BACK AFTER -- AFTER REPUBLICANS CAME INTO POWER BACK IN ’46 AND
CAME INTO POWER BACK IN ’46 AND THEY BLEW IT BECAUSE ALL THEY
THEY BLEW IT BECAUSE ALL THEY DID WAS HOLD HEARINGS, BUT I
DID WAS HOLD HEARINGS, BUT I THINK THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT.
THINK THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT. I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO HAVE SOME
I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO HAVE SOME HEARINGS, THEY WANT SOME CONTROL
HEARINGS, THEY WANT SOME CONTROL ON TRUMP AND ONE THING THAT’S
ON TRUMP AND ONE THING THAT’S REALLY CHANGED, THE SUBURBS.
REALLY CHANGED, THE SUBURBS. JOE, WHERE I GREW UP RIGHT ON
JOE, WHERE I GREW UP RIGHT ON THE PHILADELPHIA EDGE, THOSE --
THE PHILADELPHIA EDGE, THOSE -- CHESTER, DELAWARE, MONTGOMERY,
CHESTER, DELAWARE, MONTGOMERY, EVEN UP IN THE SWING PART OF THE
EVEN UP IN THE SWING PART OF THE STATE, THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE
STATE, THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE FOR -- ALLENTOWN, LEHIGH VALLEY,
FOR -- ALLENTOWN, LEHIGH VALLEY, THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE DEMOCRAT
THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE DEMOCRAT FOR THOSE WOMEN CANDIDATES, I
FOR THOSE WOMEN CANDIDATES, I THINK ALL FOUR WIN.
THINK ALL FOUR WIN. I THINK THE WHOLE STRUCTURE OF
I THINK THE WHOLE STRUCTURE OF THE EAST COAST -- WHAT HAPPENS
THE EAST COAST -- WHAT HAPPENS IS I THINK TWO MONTHS FROM NOW
IS I THINK TWO MONTHS FROM NOW PEOPLE ARE GOING TO VOTE THE WAY
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO VOTE THE WAY WE ALL THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING
WE ALL THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE IN ’16 FOR HILLARY, BUT
TO VOTE IN ’16 FOR HILLARY, BUT THERE WILL BE NO HILLARY FACTOR,
THERE WILL BE NO HILLARY FACTOR, IT WILL JUST BE YOU DON’T LIKE
IT WILL JUST BE YOU DON’T LIKE TRUMP.
TRUMP. I THINK THAT’S THE BIG
I THINK THAT’S THE BIG CHALLENGE.
CHALLENGE. OUR FAMILY WAS 3-2 OF BROTHERS,
OUR FAMILY WAS 3-2 OF BROTHERS, 3-2 TRUMP, THIS TIME IT’S GOING
3-2 TRUMP, THIS TIME IT’S GOING TO BE 2-3 AGAINST TRUMP.
TO BE 2-3 AGAINST TRUMP. SO I THINK ONE OF MY BROTHERS
SO I THINK ONE OF MY BROTHERS JUST SWITCHED.
JUST SWITCHED. AND HE LIVES IN BUCKS COUNTY.
AND HE LIVES IN BUCKS COUNTY. I TELL YOU I THINK THE SUBURBS
I TELL YOU I THINK THE SUBURBS ARE GOING TO VOTE THE WAY THEY
ARE GOING TO VOTE THE WAY THEY DID -- THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO
DID -- THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO VOTE LAST TIME WHICH WAS
VOTE LAST TIME WHICH WAS ANTI-TRUMP, BUT THERE WILL BE NO
ANTI-TRUMP, BUT THERE WILL BE NO HILLARY FACTOR TO DISTURB THAT

クリス・マシューズが中間選挙の予測を立てる｜モーニング・ジョー｜MSNBC (Chris Matthews Makes His Midterm Predictions | Morning Joe | MSNBC)