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  • MARIA: WELCOME BACK.

  • THE RECORD ROLE FOR IF STOCK

  • MARKET CONTINUES THIS WEEK.

  • INCREDIBLE UNCHARTERED HIGHS

  • HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DOW JONES

  • INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CRACKING THE

  • 25,000 MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME

  • BLACK CONTINUE THIS YEAR OR

  • SHOULD WE EXPECT A CORRECTION.

  • WITH MORE NOW WE HAVE JASON AND

  • RALPH, DIRECTOR OF TECHNICAL

  • PROGRAM.

  • GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH.

  • THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

  • RALPH, A REAL HONOR TO HAVE YOU

  • AS YOU WERE REALLY ONE OF THE

  • ORIGINALS OF THIS PROGRAM, "WALL

  • STREET WEEK."

  • HOW ARE YOU DOING, RALPH?

  • >> DOING FINE.

  • AND YOU'RE DOING A GREAT JOB.

  • I KNOW LOU WOULD BE VERY VERY

  • HAPPY WITH WHAT YOU'RE DOING

  • WITH HIS OLD SHOW.

  • CONGRATULATIONS.

  • MARIA: YOU AND I GO BACK A LONG

  • TIME AND I GOT TO GIVE YOU KUDOS

  • HERE.

  • IT ALL STARTED IN JUNE OF 1995

  • WITH YOUR 578-PAGE REPORT

  • ENTITLED "DOW 7,000".

  • YOU CALLED DOW 7,000 WHEN THE

  • DOW WAS AT 4,000.

  • A LOT OF PEOPLE SAID HE'S NUTS.

  • I DON'T BELIEVE IT.

  • WE GOT THERE, SIX MONTHS LATER

  • YOU RAISED YOUR TARGET TO DOW 10

  • NOWS.

  • YOU WERE SO RIGHT.

  • YOUR FIRM GAVE YOU A LITTLE RED

  • CORVETTE.

  • YOU TOOK ME FOR A RIDE IN THAT

  • CAR.

  • I REMEMBER.

  • >> YES, WE DID.

  • WE WENT DOWN BROADWAY.

  • MARIA: SINCE YOU PREDICTED DOW 4

  • DOW 25,000 WHICH WE REACHED THIS

  • >> YES, I THINK SO.

  • IN FACT, MY VERY SHORT TERM

  • TARGET WHEN I DID IT A COUPLE OF

  • WEEKS AGO WAS 25,900.

  • I THINK THAT'S A GIVEN.

  • BUT MY SECONDARY TARGET FOR THIS

  • YEAR, MARIA, IS 28,700.

  • I THINK THAT'S VERY DOABLE.

  • MARIA: WHY?

  • WHAT TO YOU SEE OUT THERE THAT

  • MAKES YOU SO BULLISH?

  • >> THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

  • IT'S NOT WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE

  • IT'S WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE LAST

  • HALF, THE SECOND HALF OF 2017.

  • MARIA, IT WAS SUCH SECTOR

  • ROTATION, SO POWERFUL AND SO

  • IMPRESSIVE, MONEY COMING BACK

  • IMPRESSED.

  • MARIA: JASON, YOU HAVE ONE OF

  • THE BEST RESEARCHER

  • THE BEST RESEARCH SHOPS ON THE

  • STREET.

  • HOW DO YOU SEE ?

  • IT?

  • >> I AGREE WITH RALPH.

  • AN OLD FRIEND.

  • GOOD TO SEE YOU.

  • IN SOME WAYS I THINK WE'RE JUST

  • BEGINNING -- A LOT OF PEOPLE

  • THINK THIS MIGHT BE THE END OF

  • THE BUSINESS CYCLE GIVEN HOW

  • LONG THE EXPANSION HAS BEEN.

  • BUT IN SOME WAYS IT'S JUST THE

  • BEBEGINNING BECAUSE I THINK

  • CENTRAL BANKS, WHILE THEY WERE

  • HELPFUL AT THE BEGINNING WOUND

  • UP GETTING IN THE WAY AT THE

  • END.

  • AND I BELIEVE THERE ARE PEOPLE

  • THAT ARE PO O-POOING THE TAX

  • CUT.

  • PERSONALLY I THINK IT'S GOING TO

  • AVERAGE PERSON THAT PAYS TAXES.

  • AND I ALSO THINK FOR BUSINESS

  • INVESTMENTS.

  • WE'RE JUST GETTING STARTED.

  • CHRONOLOGICALLY IT SEEMS QUITE

  • OLD.

  • IN MY OPINION WE'RE JUST GETTING

  • GOING.

  • AND I ALSO AGREE WITH RALPH.

  • I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO

  • ZEROATION INTO THE MORE

  • ENCYCLICAL VALUE ORIENTED

  • SECTORS OF THE MARKET.

  • MARIA: I THINK YOU MAKE A GOOD

  • REALLY IN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS

  • WAS REALLY DO TO EASY MONETARY

  • POLICY.

  • THERE REALLY WEREN'T A LOT OF

  • MARKET.

  • BUT THIS TIME, THIS YEAR WE SEE

  • RATES BEGINNING TO GO UP.

  • SO MONETARY POLICY IS TAKEN AWAY

  • AND NOW WE'VE GOT FISCAL POLICY

  • DRIVING THE BUCK.

  • >> AND THE NET RESULT OF THAT --

  • THE OVERALL MARKET MIGHT NOT DO

  • AS WELL AS IT HAS, LET'S SEE,

  • LAST YEAR.

  • BUT THE OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE

  • I THINK IT'S MUCH BETTER FOR

  • ACTIVE MANAGERS BECAUSE THERE'S

  • GOING TO BE GREATER DISPERSION

  • OF RETURNS.

  • AND I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE

  • STRONGER COMPANIES CONSOLIDATING

  • A LOT OF THE WEAKER COMPANIES AS

  • INTEREST RATES RISE.

  • MARIA: WHAT ABOUT THAT RALPH?

  • HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY IN THIS

  • JASON JUST SAID.

  • YOU KNOW WHAT, JASON, CORRECT ME

  • IF I'M WRONG.

  • I THINK THE MARKET IS LOOKING

  • BEYOND THE NEXT QUARTER OR TWO.

  • I THINK IT'S LOOKING OUT INTO

  • THE END OF THIS YEAR AND PERHAPS

  • EVEN INTO 2019.

  • IT'S A LONG TERM VIEW THAT THE

  • MARKET IS TAKING.

  • YOU KNOW, THE LIFELINE OF THE

  • BULL MARKET THAT HAD IN THE LATE

  • '90s, MARIA, WAS LOW

  • THAT'S THE FERTILE GROUND FOR

  • THIS.

  • I LOVE WHAT JASON SHAD TO SAY.

  • IT KIND OF FITS IN WITH MY LONG

  • TERM FEELING.

  • AS FAR AS BUYING ANYTHING, I

  • WOULD LOOK AT STOCKS THAT

  • HAVEN'T PERFORMED, LIKE

  • EXXONMOBIL, BIG BLUE CHIP DOW

  • STOCK, HALL BURTON, A DRILLING

  • STRENGTH IN ENERGY.

  • BANKING STOCKS.

  • I THINK IT'S JUST STARTING FOR

  • COMPANIES LIKE CITI GROUP AND

  • BANK OF AMERICA.

  • MARIA: YOU MAKE A GREAT POINT.

  • IT'S BEEN A LOT OF TECH THAT'S

  • BEEN LEADING HERE.

  • >> SO I THINK PEOPLE -- WHEN

  • ECONOMIC GROWTH IS RELATIVELY

  • LOW, PEOPLE WOULD PAY UP FOR

  • GROWTH, EARNINGS GROWTH AND

  • ECONOMIC GROWTH.

  • NOW THAT ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL BE

  • MORE DIFFUSE, MORE APPARENT, I

  • THINK INVESTORS WILL FIND GROWTH

  • WITH RALPH.

  • I THINK ENERGY AND FINANCIALS IN

  • PARTICULAR ARE TWO GREAT PLACE

  • TO LOOK FOR FINANCIAL BENEFIT A

  • LOT FROM REGULATORY REFORMS AND

  • SO I THINK THE OUTLOOK IS QUITE

MARIA: WELCOME BACK.

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ダウ・ジョーンズは2018年も記録を更新し続けるラルフ・アカンポラ (Dow Jones will keep breaking records in 2018: Ralph Acampora)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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