字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Let's be honest, it would make our lives a lot easier if we could predict the future and this is especially true when it comes to currency because we'd really like to know where the Australian dollar is going to go. It could be because you're about to travel overseas or if you want to make transfers for your business or even if you're just interested in foreign exchange in general. Whatever your reason this video will look at whether the Australian dollar could go up, what's impacting it and where it could be by the end of 2019. Let's get into it. Let's find out what the big four banks are actually forecasting by the end of 2019. First up ANZ. Their current forecast see the Australian dollar remaining around the 70 cents mark by the end of 2019. Similar to both negative expectations last year. Westpac has a similar expectation but over the course of 2019 the dollar will slowly decline to 70 cents by the end of the year. CBA and NAB are much more optimistic. Both expect the Australian dollar to rise gradually towards 75 US cents by 2019 and that's more than 5% optimistic than the other banks. The first question is always going to be around whether the Australian dollar is going to go up. Since have spent the latter part of 2018 fall into two year lows it's a fair point. Major Australian banks are pretty pessimistic about the Aussie going up by the end of 2019. Let's have a look at the three circumstances that would mean it won't change that much. Firstly increased interest rates and easing political risk in the USA would support the US dollar making it harder for the Aussie to strengthen. Secondly if interest rates say the same in Australia which is likely if the economy falters or if inflation only grows slowly, the dollar is again unlikely to rise. Finally if economic growth slows in China it would lower the demands for our commodities and in turn our dollar. The banks aren't saying that all three of these things are going to happen they are just the most likely circumstances that would mean the Aussie wouldn't go up. Now in general there is the perception that a lower dollar is a bad thing and in some ways it can be, but there are also a lot of advantages to having a lower dollar. From a consumer point of view it means it's cheaper to transfer money into the country and it's cheaper to exchange foreign currency into Australian dollars and from a bigger picture point of view it's good for a number of industries. For example it becomes cheaper for foreigners to travel to Australia which is good for tourism and it becomes cheaper to export goods which impacts a number of industries like agriculture and mining. The Australian dollar is generally spoken about in regards to the US dollar but if you're specifically interested in another currency we have you covered. Keep an eye on our channel for videos relating to the Pound, the New Zealand Dollar the Euro and the US dollar. If you have any more questions or thoughts about the Australian Dollar you can leave them in the comments below and if you do need to transfer money overseas or into Australia you can use our comparison table to compare large reputable and secure money transfer companies in one place.