In 2020...

...the global economy could tip into recession

The trade war between the US and China...

...is one of the biggest risks to the global economy

250 years after his birth...

...one of history's greatest composers becomes a global eco-warrior

Beethoven loved nature. He was writing for today and future generations

And the world's greatest sporting event comes to Tokyo...

...where the inclusion of trans athletes could spark controversy

Trans women are women

I think we need to race based on biology

There is only one Beethoven

In 2020 music lovers' ears will be attuned...

…to the 250th anniversary of the birth of Ludwig van Beethoven…

…one of the most influential and popular classical composers in history

Beethoven broke the rules of music

He did things differently

Take for instance, his Eroica Symphony, Symphony No. 3

How does it begin?

With two massive chords…

…it goes “bang, bang”

No one had done that before

It's Beethoven saying…

…“look what I can do, I'm going to do it differently”…

…and he did that in every form of music that he wrote in

In 2020 across the globe...

...orchestras will be celebrating this genius and his legacy...

...with a string of performances and concerts

We listen to his music now and...

…there's a tendency to think it came from him fully formed

But if you look at his many sketchbooks and manuscript pages…

…there are crossings out, there are obliterations...

...there are tears in the paper

He struggled to compose and yet it's what he did

Written during the Age of Enlightenment...

…Beethoven's music has a history of being intertwined with politics

The opening motif of his Fifth Symphony...

...equivalent to the letter V in Morse code...

...became a symbol of resistance to the Nazis

And the final movement of his Ninth Symphony...

...became the hymn for the European Union

He believed in the power of the ordinary human being…

…that was who he was writing his music for

And of course we have the great message...

…in the Choral Symphony in the final movement, Schiller's Ode to Joy…

…which is, all mankind will be brothers…

…“Alle Menschen werden Brüder”

It's a universal message

And in 2020 his Pastoral Symphony...

...will be used as an anthem to unite millions...

...across the world to act against climate change

Beethoven loved nature

There was nothing he loved more than taking…

…long, long walks in the country…

…always composing as he went, waving his arms in the air…

…jotting notes down

And that's why the Pastoral Symphony is so important in his output

250 years after his birth...

...Beethoven will continue to set the tone for the future

He wouldn't be in the least bit surprised...

...that his music was so relevant today

After all, he knew back then...

...that he was writing for today and future generations

So he'd probably say...

…“yep, yep, told you, told you”

2020 will be the year nurses receive the attention...

...and treatment they deserve

The World Health Organisation has declared it will be the “Year of The Nurse”

That's excellent

Almost half of health care workers globally are nurses

And they are increasingly taking on a growing number of tasks...

...previously reserved for doctors

Most people have no idea what modern nursing entails

They think of them as the sidekicks of heroic doctors

It's hard the way we have to rely upon these amateur nurses

Nursing today is a highly skilled profession

Many nurses have university degrees

There are even doctorate-level studies in nursing

In America two-thirds of anaesthetics are administered by nurses

And nurses in some sub-Saharan countries...

...even carry out emergency caesareans

It's definitely a new level of autonomy

Nurses in Britain are now trained to perform surgery...

...and are taking on more responsibility for patients in life-and-death situations

With this role, it's going down to see patients on the ward...

...often by yourself attending cardiac-arrest calls...

...and going to see some of the sickest patients in the hospital

2020 will also mark 200 years since the birth...

...of perhaps the most famous nurse in history—Florence Nightingale

If she were around today...

...she would probably be concerned that a global shortage of nurses...

...will be the biggest problem facing national health systems...

...in the coming decade

By 2030 the world will be short of 7.6m nurses

Countries will have to do more to recruit and educate new nurses locally...

...as well as to retain those that are already in place

Rich countries cannot continue to lure nurses from poorer countries...

...where health systems are already severely crippled by the shortage of nurses

Singapore has led the way in addressing nurse shortages

It has successfully increased applications from young people...

...to nursing school by commissioning dramas, documentaries...

...and even a catchy pop song

Looking into the future...

...nurses will be even more important because...

...you have more people living longer. They require more care

A lot of health-care professionals, at least partially...

...may be replaced by AI

With nursing that would be very difficult because at its heart...

...nursing, its healing powers, are about empathy and a human touch

The Games of the 32nd Olympiad are awarded to the city of...

...Tokyo

In July 2020 billions of people will watch the Olympic flame burn once again...

...as the Tokyo Olympics begin

But with new rules making it easier for transgender women...

...to compete in women's events for the first time...

...2020 could turn out to be a highly controversial Olympic Games

There's a heated debate in women's sports...

...over the inclusion of transgender women...

...people who are biologically male, and identify as women

International Olympic Committee rules...

...currently allow transgender women to compete in women's sports...

...provided they have suppressed their testosterone levels...

...for at least 12 months

You can't just ignore the fact that biology...

...is something that, as humans, we have

But some observers...

...like former Olympic swimmer and medallist Sharron Davies...

...argue these athletes will have an unfair advantage

You're not going to be able to get rid of...

...the male puberty that they've gone through...

...the fact that they have male biology

So even by reducing testosterone for one year...

...it's still not going to level the playing field

But others take a very different view

Like track cyclist Rachel McKinnon...

...who has become a high-profile transgender athlete...

...since winning a world championship in 2018

Athletes come in a huge range of shapes and sizes and natural abilities

Population demographics around the world are different

So, Dutch women average height is over five foot six

Indonesian women it's around four foot ten

So, sport is never level if by which we mean...

...no one has a competitive advantage over each other...

...because that's the point of sport

During male puberty testosterone drives the development...

...of bigger muscles with more fast-twitching fibres...

...sturdier bones and a larger heart and lungs

All lifelong advantages when it comes to speed and strength

The difference between boys' and girls' running times...

...increases in adolescence, and the gap is even bigger for jumping events

And in 2019 among top athletes...

...around 2,000 men finished the 100m more quickly than the fastest woman

Sharron Davies believes there is a danger that transgender athletes...

...could dominate some women's sports...

...and that these sports could once again be blighted by unfairness

In the 70s and the 80s, we had the East German system where...

...female athletes were filled full of testosterone and it made them unbeatable

So, for nearly a whole generation...

...the East German women totally dominated in...

...almost all female sports at Olympic and world level

But there were many British that came fourth and fifth and sixth...

...and no one's ever heard of them because they didn't pick up a medal...

...which they should have done

So I feel quite passionately that I just don't want to see that happen...

...to a whole generation of female athletes again

Davies and others who have voiced their concerns...

...have faced strong criticism from the transgender community and beyond

You have been called by the transgender cyclist Rachel McKinnon...

...a transphobe and somebody who shares hate speech

McKinnon argues the debate is fundamentally...

...about equality and human rights⁠—both on and off the playing field

Inclusion is a fundamental principle in society

I think that applies also to sport

That applies to intersex women, cis women and trans women

That to be considered fully equal members of society...

...to be respected in our identities is to be included in sport for who we are

And trans women are women

The IOC says it actively supports both inclusion and fairness

It was due to announce stricter guidelines...

...for transgender athletes in September 2019

But so far its panel of scientists have failed to agree on what these should be

I think we need to race based on biology

So, I think the very simple, straightforward way to race...

...is based on your chromosomes

And if you carry a Y chromosome, which gives you a benefit...

...a Y benefit, a male benefit to your strength levels...

...and your testosterone levels, then you need to race where it's apparent

So we should have an XX-female category protected...

...and an open category which is then...

...inclusive for absolutely everybody that wants to be able to compete

So, I just think there's ways forward...

...that doesn't mean the destruction of female sport

While countries will be competing to make their mark on the medal tables...

...the 2020 Olympics could also prove to be a decisive moment...

...in the wider global debate about gender identity

In 2020 the possibility of recession will once again...

…hang over the world economy…

…thanks to one thing in particular

The trade war between the US and China...

…is one of the biggest risks to the global economy…

…and it could be enough to tip it into a recession

The US increased tariffs on $200bn worth of goods

China striking back at the US today...

...saying it will raise tariffs on $60bn dollars of US goods

We saw an escalation in the trade war...

...between the US and China at the start of 2019

And after months of confrontation…

…China and America agreed a preliminary deal at the end of 2019

To me it's not complicated but that's what I do

It's a phenomenal deal

But details are scant and there's likely to be more back and forth in 2020

We still don't know how that's going to play out

Business confidence is low...

…and there's been a synchronised slowing…

…over the course of 2019 around the world

Everyone loses in a trade war

And in 2020 one of the biggest losers…

…set to be caught in the crossfire will be Germany

Germany is the motor of the European economy…

…and it's really been sputtering for the past year

In the third quarter of 2019...

...it very narrowly avoided falling into a recession

Germany is very exposed to international trade...

...and as a result is particularly vulnerable...

...to an intensification of the trade war in 2020

Germany relies more heavily on trade...

...than any other major economy

Its exports are worth almost half of its GDP…

…and much of that is manufacturing exports

Kion, a global company based in Frankfurt…

…is the second-largest producer of forklifts in the world

American tariffs on Chinese exports…

…have affected the company's sales

And the continued uncertainty is damaging…

…the company's ability to plan for 2020 and beyond