Name: ISISが陥落した後はどうなるのか？ (What happens after ISIS falls?)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:02:42.000Z
Duration: 7 min 23 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

The terrorist group ISIS is losing. At the
end of 2014 they claimed a territory the

size of Great Britain and a population
of 11 million people. But today it's lost

about 60% of that and its population is
down to about two and a half million.

It's the result of fighting its enemies
on all sides.

To the west and north, ISIS is fighting armed rebel groups and the Russian-backed Syrian military and it's allies.

It's also fighting Turkish troops and US-backed Kurdish forces in the north.

And to the east and south, there's the US backed Iraqi army. It was this Iraqi

army that delivered the latest blow when
they took over Isis's biggest city Mosul.

The group's capital in Iraq. It was a
symbolic loss. Mosul is where the group

declared a Caliphate, or Islamic
territory, in 2014. This set them apart

from other terrorist organizations. They
weren't just a network of jihadists

strung out across several countries like
Al Qaeda. They governed actual territory

which they called the Islamic state. Now
with the loss of Mosul, the fall of this

ISIS Caliphate seems imminent. So what
happens when Isis is gone?

Problem number one is that these fighters are going to want to go home. So in 2014 when

ISIS captured a huge swath of territory
in Iraq and Syria, tens of thousands of

foreign fighters came from all over the
world to join the caliphate.

According to UN estimates as of July
2016 there are upwards of 30,000 foreign

fighters. So most of these fighters came
from countries like Tunisia, Morocco,

Jordan, Saudi Arabia, but hundreds also
came from countries like Belgium, Germany,

the UK, and even a few dozen from the
United States. So these fighters were

drawn to ISIS for all sorts of different
reasons, but a big one was that it had

actual territory and was supposed to be
building a Caliphate based on its own

extreme interpretation of Islamic law.
ISIS propaganda pushed this narrative in

flashy violent videos and magazines
online encouraging people from all walks

of life, not just fighters, to come and
help build this glorious Islamic state.

And the people who came were not just
young men, they weren't just fighters,

there were women children and even
families who came as well. But now as

ISIS territory shrinks and the state
that they tried to build collapses,

anyone who survives will have to find
somewhere else to go... and that's a major

problem because many of these people are
now indoctrinated, there now

well-connected and they're capable of
carrying out deadly terror attacks.

A similar dynamic actually happened back in the 1980s in Afghanistan. So thousands

of foreign fighters flocked to
Afghanistan to help the Afghan mujahideen

fight the Soviet invasion.
After the Soviets left a lot of these

fighters dispersed to various different
theaters of jihad including Bosnia,

Chechnya, Somalia, Sudan, and elsewhere.
These fighters ended up forming a loose

network of transnational jihadists, most
of whom had links to Osama bin Laden and

al-Qaeda,
thanks to their time fighting in

Afghanistan. And some of them actually
went on to carry out attacks against the

West, including attacks against the
United States. So the worry now is that

ISIS fighters will do something similar
but this time they might actually make

it home to places like Europe and launch
attacks there.

So the second problem is what to do with the US military after
ISIS falls. Right now the US is helping

local forces in Iraq and Syria
to defeat ISIS. There are currently

around 1,000 US troops in Syria and
around 6,000 US troops in Iraq. Mosul

which was ISIS's capital in Iraq has
fallen and right now the US is helping

Syrian local forces to defeat ISIS in
Raqqa its so-called capital there. So as

those two cities fall ISIS has been
spreading out to rural areas. The Trump

administration had two choices. Option
one is to keep the US troops there which

would lead them in harm's way. Or option
two is to bring them home, which

increases the risk that the region
breaks out into war again. Option 1 is a

big political risk for Trump. He promised
during the campaign that he would not

get involved in foreign wars that he
would actually invest American money and

time and jobs and research in the United
States. And so if Trump were to keep

troops in the region it would be
admitting that he's going against the

political philosophy he espoused during
the campaign and currently during his

presidency. Option two is definitely also
a risk for Trump if US troops were to

leave that opens a space for sectarian
violence to break out in the region.

Let's take a look for example at what
happened in 2011 the Obama

administration took most of its troops
out of the region that gave the Shiite

government in Baghdad the space to crack down on Sunni population throughout the

country and ISIS took advantage of that.
ISIS was seen as the defender against

the Shiite government and was able to
gain support and allow for its rise.

So while it doesn't necessarily mean
that it's troops leave an ISIS type

group or ISIS 2.0 itself would grow out of
that absence of US troops but that risk

A deadly California
shooting rampage. A lone gunman to pledge allegiance to ISIS. Both incidents
carried out by so-called lone wolves

Problem number three is ISIS moving from a place to an idea. Up until now ISIS had

one goal: defend the territory it already
had in Iraq and the territory already

had in Syria. The problem is on the verge
of losing both. When that happens

ISIS goes from being the kind of place
people go to fight to being the idea

that people fight for.
It's an idea that's compelling it's an

idea that its followers are willing to
kill for and as followers are willing to

die for. When they first came to power
people thought it's a group that has its

own territory, it wants to control that
territory, but it's not al-Qaeda, it's not

a terror group that wants to carry out
attacks outside of its borders in the

West. That was proven tragically wrong in
October of 2015.. "this is the bomb ISIS

claims they use to bring down the
Russian passenger plane over the Sinai

Peninsula." In their online magazine they
posted photos of the bomb that they said

had been used to blow up the plane. And
that was a reminder for was about to

come. A wave of ISIS attacks that have
killed hundreds of people in London, in

Paris, and in Nice. And have inspired
attacks that have killed dozens here at

home in California and in Orlando. It's
worth remembering that these are not

always attacks carried out by people who
are part of ISIS. In many cases these are

people who are radicalized in the
countries where they lived and that's

the danger of the idea. Take what
happened in San Bernardino, California

where a married couple killed 14 people.
Or in Orlando where a single shooter

killed 49 people. In both cases ISIS
claimed responsibility but in both cases

there is no connection between those
people and Isis. They got radicalized

over the Internet
Isis has known that propaganda matters

and ISIS is really good at it. It has
people all over the world who use English

language Arabic language to have
Facebook pages and Twitter accounts that

are full of incredibly slickly produced
videos. They're really compelling and if

you're someone predisposed to have that
worldview, they can push you over the

edge from just thinking that's an idea
worth killing for,

to actually killing for it. ISIS takes it
so seriously

that it refers to these people as media
operatives and says those media

operatives are carrying out a form of
martyrdom akin to killing, to literally

killing for the cause. And at the end of
the day that's the hardest thing about