Name: HOW ABUNDANCE WILL CHANGE THE WORLD - エロン・ムスク 2017 (HOW ABUNDANCE WILL CHANGE THE WORLD - Elon Musk 2017)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:56:27.000Z
Duration: 14 min 53 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

hi so this is not gonna be one of my
regular videos I've been looking a lot

転換語

around in san francisco and on the web
lately because i'm super interested in

how things are gonna evolve in the
future so this is my way of sort of

boiling everything that's happened in
the last year down to a good let's go

with 15 minutes yes it will be some hard
cuts I'll put a link to everything in

the description just so you can
double-check everything and I'm really

not cutting anything in or leaving
anything out that I feel is important

you can watch the full videos if you
want they're hours long but they're

really really really great enjoy we're
living the time where what is possible

is speeding up at such an accelerating
rate that it's going to challenge our

sense of stability one of the things
that's changing is the cost of things we

talk a lot about the notion that
technology is going to cause us to lose

our jobs lose our income the most
near-term impact from a technological

standpoint is autonomous cars a fully
self-driving cars that's gonna happen

much faster than people realize there
are many people who is jobs it is to

drive in fact I think it might be the
single largest employer of people is

driving in various forms and so we need
to figure out new roles for those people

that will be very disruptive and very
quick now I should characterize what I

mean by quick there are over two billion
vehicles in the world approaching in

fact approaching two and a half billion
cars and trucks and in the world the

total new vehicle production capacity is
about a hundred mode which makes sense

because the life of a car or truck
before it's finally scrapped is about 20

25 years so the point at which we see
full autonomy appear will not be the

point at which there is massive societal
upheaval because it will take a long

time to make enough autonomous vehicles
to disrupt employment so that that

disruption I'm talking about will take
place over about 20 years it's still 20

years is a short period of time to have
I think something like 12 to 15 percent

of the workforce be unemployed there is
a countervailing force that's going on

right now at the same time which is the
D monetization of living I believe we're

rapidly moving towards a
world where all of these things that we

use that we need to be alive if you
would modulus hierarchy of needs are

very rapidly trending towards zero cost
and it's going to change capitalism in a

very fundamental fashion at the end of
the day in a world in which technologies

like the replicator exists if we have
one of these in engineering we can make

all the spare parts we need the ability
to actually create something and have

something where scarcity no longer
exists where everything becomes abundant

changes the whole economic sphere of our
world one of the technologies that is

taking us in that direction of course is
the whole notion of nanotechnology

nanobots and it's extraordinary to see
where it can go in the not-too-distant

future like the next 20 years 30 years
at the outmost if I have a nano bot and

I ask it to replicate itself 500 times
and I give you each one of those

nanobots you then have the ability to
create anything you literally want that

is a function of only three things the
energy the raw material cost and the

cost the information and so we're living
in a world where you can have a Ferrari

a mansion or literally anything for near
zero cost we are in effect heading

towards a world where a lot not all
things but a lot of them basic things of

life are gonna be at near marginal cost
what we're seeing is what I call the six

DS of exponential growth everything is
becoming D materialized D monetized and

democratized and as we D materialize
things as things go from hardware to

bits and the marginal cost of those
replicating those bits is near zero we

end up in a very interesting world the
demand for electricity will increase

dramatically so currently in terms of
total energy usage in the world it's

about one third electricity about one
third transport about one third eating

overtime that will transition to almost
a predominantly electricity which means

that the demand for electricity will
probably triple so it's going to be very

important to think about
how do you make so much more electricity

we're living in a world where we have
8,000 times more energy hitting the

surface of the Earth from the Sun than
we consume as a species and as it turns

out the poorest countries in the world
are the sunniest countries in the world

an interesting line up there that
shouldn't be lost on you and as we look

at this
you know 2016 the year that renewables

were cheaper than coal right coal will
not ever recover when I look down over

LA I don't see the farms of
photovoltaics or the farms of solar

thermals you see rooftops and of course
what's interesting is that we're going

to turn all of those areas into solar
collecting right this is a kilometer of

solar Road deployed in Normandy and
Tesla selling at solar rooftops you saw

these numbers the actual number now that
Ramez mentioned at 2.4 cents per

kilowatt hour and of course to have
abundant near free energy you need

storage now this is the gigafactory out
near reno this is just a cute house from

Desperate Housewives or something what
what what on earth is going on here

well this illustrates the picture of the
future that I think is how how things

will evolve you've got an electric car
in the driveway and then that that house

roof is a solar roof you can adjust the
texture and the color a very

fine-grained level when you're looking
at the roof from street level or close

the street level but tiles look the same
whether there is a solar panel behind it

or solar cell behind it or not if you
say the road fast forward to say 15

years from now it will be unusual to
have a roof that does not have solar

okay so the the key to the economics of
the cars the semi of these houses is the

the falling price of lithium-ion
batteries which you've made a huge bet

on as so many ways that's almost the
core competency and you just have to

build the world's largest manufacturing
plants that double the world supply of

lithium-ion battery yeah is with with
with this guy what is this yeah

so that's the gigafactory the progress
so far in the gigafactory

and I'm incapable of pretty seem like a
hundred it eventually like a hundred

gigawatt hours of yeah batteries a year
and we go going else we think probably

more video and they're actually being
produced right now already here right

already put up this video yeah I mean
just eat it up or that's this that's the

slowed down version that yeah how fast
does it actually go well when it's

running at full speed you can't actually
see the cells without a strobe light

it's just blur how help us picture this
I mean how many Giga factories if you

like does it take to get us there oh
it's about a hundred roughly it's not

ten it's not a thousand most likely a
hundred you're planning to do a test or

at least another to announce another two
this year I think I walk will announce

locations for solar between two and four
Giga factories later this year yeah

probably four well the fact that Ilan's
prediction that a hundred of these Giga

factories worldwide give us all the
storage we need for a fully electric

economy is pretty significant let's look
at transportation uh abundance 360 this

year I spent time with Jeff Holden his
prediction is that we'll have fully

autonomous ubers on the road within two
years

this is pilotless driverless fully
autonomous ubers and as part of that