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  • hi so this is not gonna be one of my regular videos I've been looking a lot

  • around in san francisco and on the web lately because i'm super interested in

  • how things are gonna evolve in the future so this is my way of sort of

  • boiling everything that's happened in the last year down to a good let's go

  • with 15 minutes yes it will be some hard cuts I'll put a link to everything in

  • the description just so you can double-check everything and I'm really

  • not cutting anything in or leaving anything out that I feel is important

  • you can watch the full videos if you want they're hours long but they're

  • really really really great enjoy we're living the time where what is possible

  • is speeding up at such an accelerating rate that it's going to challenge our

  • sense of stability one of the things that's changing is the cost of things we

  • talk a lot about the notion that technology is going to cause us to lose

  • our jobs lose our income the most near-term impact from a technological

  • standpoint is autonomous cars a fully self-driving cars that's gonna happen

  • much faster than people realize there are many people who is jobs it is to

  • drive in fact I think it might be the single largest employer of people is

  • driving in various forms and so we need to figure out new roles for those people

  • that will be very disruptive and very quick now I should characterize what I

  • mean by quick there are over two billion vehicles in the world approaching in

  • fact approaching two and a half billion cars and trucks and in the world the

  • total new vehicle production capacity is about a hundred mode which makes sense

  • because the life of a car or truck before it's finally scrapped is about 20

  • 25 years so the point at which we see full autonomy appear will not be the

  • point at which there is massive societal upheaval because it will take a long

  • time to make enough autonomous vehicles to disrupt employment so that that

  • disruption I'm talking about will take place over about 20 years it's still 20

  • years is a short period of time to have I think something like 12 to 15 percent

  • of the workforce be unemployed there is a countervailing force that's going on

  • right now at the same time which is the D monetization of living I believe we're

  • rapidly moving towards a world where all of these things that we

  • use that we need to be alive if you would modulus hierarchy of needs are

  • very rapidly trending towards zero cost and it's going to change capitalism in a

  • very fundamental fashion at the end of the day in a world in which technologies

  • like the replicator exists if we have one of these in engineering we can make

  • all the spare parts we need the ability to actually create something and have

  • something where scarcity no longer exists where everything becomes abundant

  • changes the whole economic sphere of our world one of the technologies that is

  • taking us in that direction of course is the whole notion of nanotechnology

  • nanobots and it's extraordinary to see where it can go in the not-too-distant

  • future like the next 20 years 30 years at the outmost if I have a nano bot and

  • I ask it to replicate itself 500 times and I give you each one of those

  • nanobots you then have the ability to create anything you literally want that

  • is a function of only three things the energy the raw material cost and the

  • cost the information and so we're living in a world where you can have a Ferrari

  • a mansion or literally anything for near zero cost we are in effect heading

  • towards a world where a lot not all things but a lot of them basic things of

  • life are gonna be at near marginal cost what we're seeing is what I call the six

  • DS of exponential growth everything is becoming D materialized D monetized and

  • democratized and as we D materialize things as things go from hardware to

  • bits and the marginal cost of those replicating those bits is near zero we

  • end up in a very interesting world the demand for electricity will increase

  • dramatically so currently in terms of total energy usage in the world it's

  • about one third electricity about one third transport about one third eating

  • overtime that will transition to almost a predominantly electricity which means

  • that the demand for electricity will probably triple so it's going to be very

  • important to think about how do you make so much more electricity

  • we're living in a world where we have 8,000 times more energy hitting the

  • surface of the Earth from the Sun than we consume as a species and as it turns

  • out the poorest countries in the world are the sunniest countries in the world

  • an interesting line up there that shouldn't be lost on you and as we look

  • at this you know 2016 the year that renewables

  • were cheaper than coal right coal will not ever recover when I look down over

  • LA I don't see the farms of photovoltaics or the farms of solar

  • thermals you see rooftops and of course what's interesting is that we're going

  • to turn all of those areas into solar collecting right this is a kilometer of

  • solar Road deployed in Normandy and Tesla selling at solar rooftops you saw

  • these numbers the actual number now that Ramez mentioned at 2.4 cents per

  • kilowatt hour and of course to have abundant near free energy you need

  • storage now this is the gigafactory out near reno this is just a cute house from

  • Desperate Housewives or something what what what on earth is going on here

  • well this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how how things

  • will evolve you've got an electric car in the driveway and then that that house

  • roof is a solar roof you can adjust the texture and the color a very

  • fine-grained level when you're looking at the roof from street level or close

  • the street level but tiles look the same whether there is a solar panel behind it

  • or solar cell behind it or not if you say the road fast forward to say 15

  • years from now it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar

  • okay so the the key to the economics of the cars the semi of these houses is the

  • the falling price of lithium-ion batteries which you've made a huge bet

  • on as so many ways that's almost the core competency and you just have to

  • build the world's largest manufacturing plants that double the world supply of

  • lithium-ion battery yeah is with with with this guy what is this yeah

  • so that's the gigafactory the progress so far in the gigafactory

  • and I'm incapable of pretty seem like a hundred it eventually like a hundred

  • gigawatt hours of yeah batteries a year and we go going else we think probably

  • more video and they're actually being produced right now already here right

  • already put up this video yeah I mean just eat it up or that's this that's the

  • slowed down version that yeah how fast does it actually go well when it's

  • running at full speed you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light

  • it's just blur how help us picture this I mean how many Giga factories if you

  • like does it take to get us there oh it's about a hundred roughly it's not

  • ten it's not a thousand most likely a hundred you're planning to do a test or

  • at least another to announce another two this year I think I walk will announce

  • locations for solar between two and four Giga factories later this year yeah

  • probably four well the fact that Ilan's prediction that a hundred of these Giga

  • factories worldwide give us all the storage we need for a fully electric

  • economy is pretty significant let's look at transportation uh abundance 360 this

  • year I spent time with Jeff Holden his prediction is that we'll have fully

  • autonomous ubers on the road within two years

  • this is pilotless driverless fully autonomous ubers and as part of that

  • that electric autonomous cars are ten times cheaper than owning a car so

  • that's a fascinating it's just five times cheaper ten times cheaper all of a

  • sudden becomes something that if you own a Maserati you're gonna park your car

  • you're gonna sell your car you're gonna part your car you're not going to use

  • your car because when you have an autonomous electric car that's that much

  • cheaper that's that much more convenient it's like you don't use your own most

  • people don't use their old film camera you put that away you're using your cell

  • phone so interestingly enough the question is at what point are we gonna

  • see electric autonomous cars displace the cars on the road because I thought

  • for the longest time oil gasps was gonna be holding on only

  • because gas car stuck around for decades at a time but this is a photograph from

  • New York in 1904 and if you look at this you can spot two cars two automobiles on

  • the road by 1917 it was a hundred percent switchover right we went from

  • horse and buggy to automobiles because the value proposition was so much

  • greater and the question of when that midpoint took place well the Model T

  • came out in 1908 four years later we crossed the midpoint and so it's

  • interesting and the prediction right now with you know with Tesla coming out with

  • Ford and GM coming out with whammo now partnering with Chrysler and with lyft

  • is that by 2025 car ownership will be dead and what I'd like to do is just

  • take a second and look at these different fields to look at how they're

  • being dematerialized and how they're being demonetised so of course in

  • communications and entertainment we've seen a massive amount here are the

  • numbers on communications by 2020 to 2025 we're gonna have the explosion of a

  • number of global networks we've got loon through Google we've got Facebook with

  • drones and satellites effectively what we're doing over the next you know five

  • to eight years is bringing five billion new consumers online and they're coming

  • online not like you and I did okay they're gonna have connectivity but

  • already gonna have these kinds of devices and at the end of the day my

  • expectation is they will and most people will have them for free because there's

  • the cost of these devices get down to 10 bucks or 20 bucks unless you have one I

  • can't sell you anything so I'm gonna give you one of these devices so that

  • you can buy things from me or the other thing I might get if I give you one of

  • these devices is I get to collect the data I get to collect and understand

  • what you want because data is the new gold machine and robots is taking over

  • there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better

  • is a full-size house being 3d printed in ten hours this is Sebastian Thrun slab

  • machine learning deep learning protocols that can diagnose dermatological

  • conditions better than a dermatologist and this is just about six months ago

  • when Watson was able to diagnose a patient who had a rare form of leukemia

  • that no physician could diagnose this is the cost of genome sequencing you see

  • Moore's law and white over there and you see that rapidly falling five times the

  • rate of Moore's Law for genome sequencing so in 2001 craig Venter

  • sequence the human genome for a hundred million dollars and a few months ago

  • Illumina the primary company announced equipment that we'll be sequencing the

  • human genome for a hundred dollars in two hours any of you ever need surgery

  • of one question to ask how many times have you done this surgery last week

  • that's the number one correlation between the success of a surgeon if you

  • find a surgeons doing ten surgeries per day that's your woman all right that's

  • the person that you want and so when you find a robot operating system that's

  • doing thousands of surgeries per day and that robot is seeing your innards in an

  • infra-red in minut detail and is able to do a surgery perfectly because it's seen

  • every variation and the cost of that surgery is the cost of electricity and

  • the capex of that of that robot the cost is going to D monetize to near zero

  • again and I want to be clear that these these are not things that I think that I

  • wish would happen these are things somebody things that I think probably

  • will happen if my assessment is correct and they probably will happen then we

  • need to say what are we gonna do about it and I think some kind of a universal

  • basic income is gonna be necessary I don't think we're gonna have a choice

  • Universal Music Inc a universal basic income I think it's gonna be necessary

  • so it's mean that unemployed people we BP across that look yeah the output of

  • goods and services will be extremely high so with automation they will they

  • will come abundance there will be or almost everything will get very cheap

  • the harder challenge much harder challenge is how

  • do people then have meaning like a lot of people that derive the meaning from

  • their employment there's gonna be psychological impacts to losing my

  • persona of when I ask you what do you do you tell me your career you tell me your

  • job so how do we connect people so we have to change the story about who you

  • are what you stand for what you do but these are these are the challenges we

  • have to face these are the kinds of conversations we talk about if you're

  • not needed if there's not a need for your labor how do you what's the meaning

  • if do you have meaning if you feel useless these are much that's a much

  • harder problem to deal with yeah it's a lot I know and I think what I take away

  • from it is that creativity and the feeling of fulfillment for creating

  • something and contributing to the world will be the sort of most important

  • things that will be where we derive our new meaning from once we have a

  • universal basic income and once we sort of leave this whole monetary system way

  • of thinking about the world it's super messed up though and no one really knows

  • I mean still really interesting to think about right let me know in the comments

  • down below when you agree with and what you don't agree with and really hope we

  • can have some great discussions about this and yeah I'll see you guys next

  • week take care

hi so this is not gonna be one of my regular videos I've been looking a lot

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HOW ABUNDANCE WILL CHANGE THE WORLD - エロン・ムスク 2017 (HOW ABUNDANCE WILL CHANGE THE WORLD - Elon Musk 2017)

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    王惟惟 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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