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We were gonna get to Cuba, and we ran out of time,
and I know you want to disagree with me, and you don't even know
what I'm gonna say.
Well, I want to hear what you have to say.
Well, I mean, I think I said it in the monologue.
We have... or somewhere in this show, we have stood
with worse dictators. I think Cuba,
in the Freedom Watch List is 62nd out of 177 countries,
one being the worst. So, it's behind China,
I think Iran, Egypt,
which is not a great place to be, but it's ahead
of a number of our allies like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
So, I guess where I'm coming from is that the United States
has all of the leverage in this situation,
and if you're looking at what Raul Castro's plan is,
I believe the plan is not to do what China and Vietnam
have done. Not to have a... kind of... you know,
basically move away from a socialist economy.
I believe they're looking to Vladimir Putin.
They're looking to Chavez's Venezuela.
They want to have sham elections,
and he wants to install his son or his son-in-law in power,
and we're allowing that to happen.
Now, we have all the leverage, I believe we should open up
to Cuba, and I believe we should normalize relations--
BILL: What do you mean, leverage?
We can demand a lot more because they're at the most
vulnerable point.
This is what's been going on for 50 years.
No, it hasn't been going on because what I'm saying
is that actually we should open up, but we can now
demand more from them in terms of how they treat their citizens
and also having an open and competitive
-political process. -But these things take time.
-Of course it takes time. -It's weak... its weak--
But we're never gonna have more leverage
than we do right now.
They used to look to Russia and Venezuela for cash.
-Exactly, they can't. -Now they can't.
-They're 90 miles away -Exactly, that's leverage.
from the world's largest economy and if they open the door
a little crack, we're gonna overwhelm them.
-BILL: And they're doing that. -I feel very comfortable
-that in 5 years' time, -Yes.
these guys are goners. Five to ten years of sanctions,
-get them there. -SALAM: That's a fantasy.
-Yeah, I totally agree. -(APPLAUSE)
He went... the President went, he looked at Raul Castro,
-he spoke to the Cuban people -I understand that.
He talked about democracy, I mean, that's the first time--
The Castro family, they're not idiots.
They know what they're doing.
They have given this a lot of thought,
and if they believe that Ian was right...
-And they're in their 80's. -They have a plan B,
that's my point. Their plan B is sham elections.
In 2018, it's all ready to go.
But you know, we can't make everybody in the world
-do everything we want to do. -SALAM: We've got leverage.
Of course we can't.
Of course we can make everyone do--
-Of course we can't. -Oh.
Of course we can't, but the point is,
that why surrender all of your leverage when they're
at their weakest point right now.
-We're not surrendering -SALAM: Of course we are.
all our leverage. We're trying--
GRANHOLM: It's a benefit for us, too.
Yeah, it's a slight benefit for us.
-We are scaling so much larger. -We're trying a different tactic
from the one that didn't work for 60 fuckin' years.
-(APPLAUSE) -What a crazy idea.
The tactic is we have one big carrot to offer
that is normalizing relationships
and actually offering them the huge economic opportunities
-that an open relationship-- -Ending the embargo
-would be another big carrot. -SALAM: Yeah.
But we're not doing that
even though most Americans are for doing that.
Normalizing relations is a rather big thing
and having Starwood and having Airbnb sign deals
and getting hard currency into the hands of the repressive
-apparatus of Cuba. -Yes, that's how their minds
are gonna change. Starwood's gonna be there. They're gonna
-meet Americans. -And that's worked
in Putin's Russia? That's worked, you know,
that's gonna work in Iran? That's gonna work
in all the other authoritarian countries
where they've figured out they're smart, too, Bill.
They are strategic, too. They've given this some thought
and they think that they're gonna come out ahead,
and I think they're probably right.
BILL: All right. All right.
With that said, do any of you have
a good cigar connect because I just started...
CORY: This is a man who talks to what I care about.
What are the chances of delegates turning on Trump
if there is a brokered convention in July?
I think pretty good, right?
GRANHOLM: I think pretty good, too.
Yeah, I mean it depends on who those delegates are.
They're working them now.
I mean everybody on the other team's
-are working those delegates. -BILL: Are you a super delegate?
I am not a super delegate, and I wouldn't be on that side,
but I know that they are working that.
-For the Democrats. -No.
You're not a super delegate?
I used to be when I was governor,
but I'm not anymore.
-Are you a delegate? -I'm not a delegate, no.
-You're just watching on TV. -I'm just a regular citizen.
-Wow, I'm very surprised. -(LAUGHTER)
Will the new voter ID laws being introduced in key states
across the country influence the outcome of the election?
-Fuck yes. Of course. -Yes, like it did in Arizona's.
Everybody who was watching that five hour--
-BILL: Wasn't that a fiasco? -Total fiasco.
They went from 200 polling sites to 60
in a heavily Latino county.
People had to wait in line for 5 hours.
Wouldn't it be great if the Supreme Court
just once went, "Eh. We got this wrong."
We gutted the Voting Rights Act. We thought America was better
than it was, and it turned out
we could not have been more wrong.
Is there any argument on the other side?
The problem is that when we talk about voter ID laws
you've got very different laws in different states.
Some of those laws, Pennsylvania, for example,
that's a really bad law. But then if you're looking
at Rhode Island, you're looking at Tennessee,
you're looking at other states, they're not all the same.
So the problem is when we talk about voter ID laws,
you're talking about a bunch of different provisions--
BILL: Well, they're all for limiting--
Twenty-one states since 2010 have adopted more restrictive,
make it more difficult to vote laws. 21 states have.
This will be the first presidential election
for 16 of those states. They're largely in the south,
they're largely trying to affect minorities--
Two quick points. Two quick points.
One is this is solution looking for a problem
-that doesn't exist, -BILL: Right.
and anytime you're restricting votes its bad,
but the unspoken truth that's happening in America,
the biggest disenfranchisement we've seen since were fighting
on the Edmund Pettus Bridge and others were fighting
for voting rights is
the disenfranchisement that's going on
of people who've been convicted of non-violent drug offenses.
-(APPLAUSE) -We right now have a country
where the Drug War is not a war on drugs,
it's a war on people, particularly poor people,
particularly minorities, and so now you have a nation
where you have swing states like Virginia and Florida
where 1 out every 5 African Americans has lost their right
to vote, and so we have this outrageous reality
in this country right now where our prison population
since 1980 has grown 500%.
Federal prison population, 800%. More people in jail today
for non-violent drug offenses, and all the people in jail
for 1975 being locked up for doing things the last two
presidents said they're doing, and now they're
in a second-class citizenship, a caste system where they can't
get jobs. They can't vote. They can't get Pell Grants.
They can't get food stamps. They can't get housing,
public housing. They've entered this caste system,
and it's an affront to our democracy
because basically what we're doing...
is millions of Americans, we're cutting them out,
taking away their voice and their participation
-in our country. So-- -BILL: Yeah, what he said.
-(APPLAUSE) -SALAM: Well, look, and you also
have conservatives and liberals who are agreeing on this,
and who are seeking to reform this.
This is not a partisan issue. I'm partnering on legislation
with everybody from allies, from the Koch brothers,
to others, trying to fight something in the system
that's completely broken. One of the greatest tragedies
going on in our country right now,
is that what we are doing to entire communities,
like the one that I've lived in for the last 20 years,
is we're devastating these communities.
The chance for an African American to be arrested,
and by the way, no difference between blacks
and whites for using drugs, no difference dealing drugs
except for some studies show that young white men
have a higher rate of dealing drugs than young blacks,
but an African-American will get arrested
for drug crimes about 4 times more than whites.
And this might actually make communities more dangerous.
That's the really scary thing.
Because if you want to be tough on crime, it turns out
that actually using incarceration too much,
you actually change the dynamics of these communities
in ways that make them more dangerous for the people
who live there, and that is really really bad.
BILL: I used to deal drugs. Did you?
-(LAUGHS) I did not deal drugs. -BILL: See? Right there.
Did you ever deal drugs, Gerard?
-What's that? -Did you ever deal drugs?
No, but back in my day, I was known as an excellent bagger.
You used to deal drugs?
Oh, in college, yes. Well, yes. Yes.
I was gonna say just pot, but that would be a lie.
-(LAUGHTER) -I mean, when I got out
of college it was just pot, but in college, it was whatever
my dealer had.
So, you would buy from your dealer...
You were like a middle man?
You'd buy from your dealer and you'd sell--
Well, that's not very nice.
I thought of myself as an entrepreneur.
-(LAUGHTER) -Middle man.
It was the 70's.
No, but it still goes on today. Look, I went to Stanford--
BILL: That's how I got through college, by the way.
Well, there's lots of drug use going on--
Wait, wait, you paid your way through college dealing drugs?
-Yeah. -That's a...
Yeah, maybe I'm gangsta now.
For the record, still no. The answer's still no.
-Why? Cause I'm white? -Yeah, kinda. A little bit.
-(LAUGHTER) -No. No. You're gangsta.
-Fine, Bill. You're gangsta. -More gangsta than you.
-(LAUGHTER) -Is Donald Trump, Ian Bremmer,
off base in suggesting that the US rethink its involvement
in NATO? You know, let's ask a different question
that's close to that. Trump said this week that he
was not putting nuclear weapons off the table dealing with ISIS
because we need to be unpredictable.
You know, you had me at Trump and nuclear weapons.
BREMMER: That's totally unpredictable. It's true.
I mean, that's a crazy thing to say, isn't it?
Well, I mean, I would say number one, Trump's slogan
is not "Make America Great Again"
it's "America First," and it's let's find
everyone else to blame. Mexicans are gonna come
to rape our women. Japanese and Chinese
are robbing us blind. The Europeans are taking
advantage of our good will on security.
Muslims are all gonna blow us up.
That's a problem, right? And we see that
with NATO as well. But I have to say,
at least from my perspective, I think the likelihood
that Trump actually could win a general election,
given the astonishing negatives he has among young, among women,
-among just normal Americans, -(LAUGHTER)
is really really low. And I know we're talking about it
because we have to and it's entertaining,
but I just don't--
-It's more than entertaining. -He could be the Republican
nominee, and probably will be. And by the way, in this country,
the Republican can always win. You know, they always said,
"Well, you know, the Republicans are losing minorities,
and they're losing women." Yeah, but they never tried
-a race war election. -SALAM: Yeah.
They never, like, really roused up those people
who when you lift up the rock, you find out what's living
in this country.
And Obama got like 40-something percent
of the white vote against Mitt Romney.
-Trump's gonna get more. -And combine that
with voter suppression laws.
He's 9 percentage points behind Romney among white voters,
-but what I will say-- -BILL: Trump is?
Yes, in a general election. Yeah, he's well behind Romney
among white voters. He gains some and he loses other ones.
He's gonna move to the middle. That's the problem.
This is why this is important.
I don't think he will move to the middle.
He doesn't know how to do that.
-No, he's gonna slide-- -He does not know how
-to adjust. -I think that--
-He's who he is. -You're talking about Ted?
-No, I'm talking about Trump. -No, no, Trump speaks--
No, Ted will know how to move to the middle, not Trump.
No, I disagree with you, I think that Trump--
Trump will not. He knows only one speed.
"I'm the best."
No, he will say stuff that is appealing--
He's not obligated to be consistent.
-No one expects him to be. -Exactly right. 70% of women,
for example, can't bear the thought of voting for Trump
in a general election. All women.
-(APPLAUSE) -But he's gonna...yes.
But he's gonna try to figure that out.
Remember, he's super smart, he went to Wharton.
-(LAUGHTER) -So, he's gonna try figure out
the language that makes him more palatable to groups.
-He's gonna do that. -BILL: He's never done that.
What he might do is deliver a serious blow to the Republican
-Party for 10 years. -Name me one time where he got
more reasonable. He calculatedly said,
"You know what, I think I'm gonna become--"
He says that he doesn't want to see poor people out
in the street. He wants to have healthcare for everyone.
I mean, he said that, right? He said that the thing
about trade, which is a Democratic position often,
and he thinks that we should be creating jobs in America.
He has said stuff
that is appealing to my side of the aisle.
He's got a dozen different positions.
-Yeah, I mean... -Immigration.
He will try to moderate.
But he's constitutionally incapable of not doing crazy
when he's in front of a camera, all right? That's the point.
He likes it too much.
We saw him read from the teleprompter.
We saw him at AIPAC reading from a teleprompter.
-We saw him being disciplined. -Right.
It happened once he can do it again.
-BILL: He fucked it up anyway. -Yeah.
-Yes he did. -What's interesting about Trump,
I've never seen white people scramble before.
I've never seen White America really, like, confused,
and like, what the fuck are we gonna do about this.
-It's very interesting. -GRANHOLM: You mean Republicans?
Donald Trump, to me, is like white Hurricane Katrina.
It's like... we didn't realize it was gonna be...
The levies have broken, and everyone is panicking
right now, and it's interesting to watch.
But you live here, too.
I live here, too, but here's the thing,
-here's the thing, -It's gonna be worse for you.
I'm from the hood. I don't trust anybody.
-I think everybody's corrupt. -(LAUGHTER)
But you don't think it matters if Trump or anybody--
No, of course it matters. It definitely matters.
I'm just saying it's an intriguing thing to watch.
I think, you know, I've had a healthy mistrust of literally
every candidate that's ever existed in my lifetime,
so I'm like... yeah,
he's in the pile with the others.
BILL: Even Obama?
Um, with Obama, listen, we were all very excited.
We were young. We were excited. We were very happy, you know?
And until Cory runs, you know? We just gotta hang out.
-When is that gonna be? -I was about to chime in and say
that these are the days where I'm gonna run,
but not necessarily for something,
-more like from something. -(LAUGHTER)
But you're gonna give the white people a turn,
and they're gonna fuck it up, and then you're gonna be like...
You're gonna be like, come on.
Obama was pretty good. You miss him.
The first time I was on this show,
you said that, hey, this Obama, if he gets this thing right...
you remember this joke, don't you?
That they're gonna think these black guys are good
at this thing like basketball. We're gonna keep putting
the black people... That was the first...
That was my introduction to this show.
And here it is 8 years later, and I'm still suffering through
-the same joke. -Okay, thank you very much.
We gotta go.


Real Time with Bill Maher: Overtime – March 25, 2016 (HBO)

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張強 2016 年 8 月 4 日 に公開
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