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  • Derek, why is the dollar rallying now when everybody is suggesting the Fed is not gonna be raising interest rates anytime soon?

  • Well I think if you look at the projections that the Fed gave last week, you know, there wasn't a huge change in the story,

  • in other words, bar the fact that they didn't go in September,

  • what they're estimating in terms of rate increases for 2016 and 2017 was pretty much unchanged,

  • so the entire curve just shifted lower by 25 basis points,

  • and of course since the meeting, we've had a stream of Fed presidents come out

  • and pretty much reinforced the prospect that we will get that first rate increase this year.

  • So I think the market's takeaway is that, well, you know, not a whole lot has changed.

  • The fundamental story in the U.S. still very much justifies some Fed action this year.

  • Well the Euro is falling today for another day, 1.1161 right now,

  • the idea that the Fed would raise rates is probably Mario Draghi's fondest hope.

  • It is, but I think also the rhetoric that we've had from ECB members over the last week or so, is also pretty important.

  • Now of course, if you recall back before the Fed's left rates on hold, the Euros seemed to be trading as a risk off currency,

  • so rising when equity markets were falling.

  • And I think the Draghi press conference from the most recent monetary policy meetings

  • and the rhetorics we're getting from the ECB, is beginning to change that dynamic.

  • And when we have bad market days like today, the Euro is actually looking softer and that's because of the increased prospect that perhaps,

  • the ECB will seriously consider extending quantitative easing.

  • If there were one currency pair that you were watching to tell us the story of what's going to happen around the world

  • with all this news-breaking confusion about what's going to happen, what would it be?

  • Well I think a good one is perhaps Euro-Yen. I certainly look at the Japanese Yen,

  • and because of the BOJ's stance which is looking a bit ambivalent compared to everywhere else,

  • that it's beginning to take on a risk type characteristic.

  • So Euro-Yen volatility, in particular Euro-Yen decline is a clear signal that investors are increasingly concerned.

  • I strongly agree with that, Derek Halpenny, thank you so much.

Derek, why is the dollar rallying now when everybody is suggesting the Fed is not gonna be raising interest rates anytime soon?

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なぜFRBの決定を受けてドルは上昇しているのか? (Why Is the Dollar Rallying in Wake of Fed Decision?)

  • 43 1
    Ray Du に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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