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  • We can cut violent deaths around the world

    翻訳: Masako Kigami 校正: Misaki Sato

  • by 50 percent in the next three decades.

    世界の暴力死は 今後30年間で

  • All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,


  • and we'll hit that target.


  • You don't believe me?


  • Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world


  • seem to think we can, and so do I,

    でも 世界の一流の疫学者や犯罪学者は

  • but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.

    犯罪を減らせると考えており 私もそう思います

  • You see, I've been thinking about this a lot.

    しかし 都市の中でも基盤の弱い町に 目を向けるとどうでしょうか?

  • For the last 20 years, I've been working

    私はこのことを色々考えてき ました

  • in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,

    この20年間 私は紛争や暴力やテロ

  • violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.

    あるいは悪質に絡み合うこれら全てのせいで 分裂した

  • I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,


  • I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,

    私はロシアからソマリアまで 銃の密輸業者を追跡しましたし

  • I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.

    アフガニスタンやコンゴでは 武装勢力と行動しました

  • You don't need to be on the front line, though,

    コロンビア、ハイチ、スリランカ、 パプアニューギニアでは死体を数えたものです

  • to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?


  • There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal.

    前線まで行かなくても 何となくお分かりいただけますね?

  • But I want you to take a closer look,

    国際的に不安定な状態が 普通になってきていると感じます

  • and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing,

    しかし よくよく見てみると

  • because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime

    暴力の地理学が変化しているのに 気付かれると思います

  • as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.

    紛争や犯罪に支配された国家は そういう都市ほど多くありません

  • Violence is migrating to the metropole.

    アレッポ、バマコ、カラカス、エルビル モースル、トリポリ、サルバドル

  • And maybe this is to be expected, right?


  • After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.


  • Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.

    何といっても 大多数の人々が 田舎よりも都市で暮らしているのです

  • But when it comes to cities,

    30の大都市を含む600の都市だけで 世界のGDPの3分の2を占めるのです

  • the conversation is dominated by the North,

    しかし 都市に関して語るとき

  • that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,


  • where violence is actually at historic lows.

    北アメリカ、西ヨーロッパ オーストラリア、日本では

  • As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,


  • of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.

    だから 都市好きの人々が 都市や 創造的な階級の勝利を語り

  • Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,


  • but, you know, the fact is,

    私はいつの日か こういった市長に世界を支配してほしいと思っていますが

  • we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.

    ご存じのとおり 実際は

  • And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,

    南半球の現状については 語り合うこともないのです

  • where violence in some cases is accelerating,


  • where infrastructure is overstretched,

    ラテン・アメリカ アフリカ、アジアでは

  • and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.


  • Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,

    ときには そもそも統治の実現が望まれている状態です

  • they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states

    さて 外交官や開発専門家などは

  • that will shape security in the 21st century.


  • I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.


  • That's because warfare and humanitarian action

    基盤の弱い都市こそが将来 秩序を保てるかどうかのカギだと思います

  • are going to be concentrated in our cities,

    なぜなら 武力衝突や人道的な活動が

  • and the fight for development,


  • whether you define that as eradicating poverty,


  • universal healthcare, beating back climate change,


  • will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.

    貧困撲滅や国民皆保険 気候変動の阻止だと

  • I want to talk to you about four megarisks

    定義するかどうかと その成否にかかっているからです

  • that I think will define fragility in our time,

    この時代において 不安定さを定義する

  • and if we can get to grips with these,


  • I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.


  • So let me start with some good news.

    死を招く暴力問題を なんとかできると思うのです

  • Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history.


  • Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict

    私たちは人類史上 最も平和な時代に暮らしています

  • is actually at an all-time low.

    スティーブン・ピンカー等は 紛争の激化や頻度が

  • Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,

    今までになく 減少していることを示しました

  • as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,

    現在 ガザ、シリア、スーダン、ウクライナでは

  • they represent a relatively small blip upwards


  • in a 50-year-long secular decline.

    50年にも渡る (暴力の)下降傾向においては

  • What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.

    比較的小さな一時的な急上昇と 見なされています

  • Manuel Eisner and others have shown

    その上 殺人は激減しています

  • that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder,


  • especially in the West.

    何世紀にも渡って 特に西洋で 殺人が驚くほど

  • Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.


  • These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder --

    北半球にある都市の大半が 100年前と比べると100倍安全なのです

  • are amongst the most extraordinary,

    「武力衝突の減少」と「殺人の減少」という この二つの事実は

  • if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,


  • and we should be really excited, right?

    偶然とはいえ 人類史が達成したものなのです

  • Well, yeah, we should.


  • There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.


  • You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls --

    でも 問題が1つあります まだどちらも無くなったわけではありません

  • die violently every single year.

    ご覧のように 52万5千人の老若男女が

  • Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others


  • has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.


  • The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.

    5万-6万人が 紛争地帯の暴力で死に

  • In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.

    残りの約50万人は 別の場所で死んでいることが分かりました

  • What's more, violence is moving south,

    つまり 紛争地帯で死ぬよりも それ以外で死ぬ人が10倍多いのです

  • to Latin America and the Caribbean,

    さらに 暴力は南下しています

  • to parts of Central and Southern Africa,


  • and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.


  • Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world

    中東の一部や中央アジアへ 移動しています

  • are right here in Latin America,

    世界の50の最も危険な都市のうち 40がここ

  • 13 in Brazil,


  • and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,


  • with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.

    とりわけ危険なのが ホンジュラスの第二の都市 サンペドロスラで

  • That's 23 times the global average.

    殺人率が高く 10万人あたり187人が殺害され

  • Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,


  • it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography,

    さて もし暴力が地理的に 再集結されるなら

  • because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat,


  • like Thomas Friedman likes to say.

    なぜなら 都市に関して言えば

  • It's spiky.

    T.フリードマンのように 世界はフラットではなく

  • The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living


  • is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,

    都市の暮らしを基調とする人々が 優勢であるということは

  • and it all happened so fast.


  • You all know the figures, right?

    すべてが 急激に起こったのです

  • There's 7.3 billion people in the world today;


  • there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.


  • But consider this one fact:


  • In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,

    でも 次の事実を考えてみましょう

  • today it's one in two,

    1800年代には30人に1人が 都市に住んでいましたが

  • and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.


  • And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.

    そして将来は 誰もが都市に住んでいるも同然です

  • The vast majority, 90 percent,

    都会化の拡大は 均一でも公平でもありません

  • will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.


  • So urban geographers and demographers,


  • they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities


  • that predicts violence, no.


  • Tokyo, with 35 million people,


  • is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.

    東京は人口3千5百万人の 大都市の一つですが

  • No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters.


  • I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility.

    問題なのは 都市化のスピードです

  • When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,

    私はこれをターボ都市化現象と呼ぶのですが 基盤の弱さの主要因の一つです

  • and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.

    都市の驚異的な拡大について 考えるのなら

  • Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.

    ターボ都市化現象として カラチについて考えてみてください

  • Today, it's 21 million people,

    1947年 カラチは人口約50万人の 活気のある都市でした

  • and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,


  • it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.

    パキスタンのGDPの4分の3を 占めているものの

  • Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,

    南アジアで最も暴力が 横行している都市の一つでもあります

  • these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.


  • Now take a look at New York.

    1950年代と比べ 40倍になっているのです

  • The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.


  • São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.

    人口8百万人になるまで 150年間かかりました

  • Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?

    サンパウロやメキシコシティでは 同じ人口になるのに15年でした

  • What is their profile?

    さて 中都市、大都市、メガシティ、ハイパーシティとは どのようなものでしょうか?

  • Well, for one thing, they're young.


  • What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.

    まず 若いことです

  • Now, this is actually a good news story.

    都市の多くで 若年層が増加しています

  • It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates.

    これは本当は 良いニュースなのです

  • But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch.


  • What it basically means

    しかし 若年層の増加は 注意すべきものです

  • is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities


  • is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.


  • In some fragile cities,

    盤石で豊かな都市に暮らす若者よりも はるかに多いのです

  • 75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.


  • Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.


  • It's like Palo Alto on steroids.

    4人中3人が30歳未満だと 考えてみてください

  • Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,


  • in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.


  • Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.


  • And Tokyo? It's 46.


  • Same for most Western European cities.


  • Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.


  • That's one factor among many,

    さて 若さだけが必ずしも 暴力につながるわけではありません

  • but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,


  • and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition.

    若さに失業と 教育を受けていないことが結びつき

  • They're statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,

    ここが重要ですが 男性であることが命取りになります

  • and they tend to relate to increases in violence.

    統計学的に見て 危険要因はすべて 若さと相関関係にあり

  • Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,


  • you know what I'm talking about, right?


  • Just imagine your boy without any structure


  • with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.


  • Now, take away the parents,

    悪ガキとつるんで遊び回っていると 想像してみてください

  • take away the education, limit the education possibilities,


  • sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,

    教育の機会を奪い その可能性が失われたところへ

  • and sit back and watch the fireworks.


  • The implications are disconcerting.


  • Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.


  • If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there.


  • But if you're young, you're uneducated,

    リオ・デ・ジャネイロで暮らすなら 残念ながら 2歳短くなります

  • you lack employment, you're black, and you're male,

    しかし もしあなたが若く 教育も受けておらず

  • your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.


  • There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers

    平均余命は60歳未満にまで 落ち込みます

  • in this country.

    この国において 若さと暴力が

  • Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities.