Name: The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions | The Vergecast
Uploaded: 2025-12-14T16:58:02.000Z
Duration: 59 min 19 s
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Welcome to the Vergecast, the flagship podcast of time travel, but only in very small increments.

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I'm your friend David Pearce, and I am sitting here making plans for 2026.

to 不定詞

So there's a thing that I like to do near the end of every year.

Sometimes it's December 31, sometimes it's like December 6.

But I try to sit down and sort of take stock of the stuff that I did this past year and then think of some stuff that I want to do next year.

This is like a yearly review cadence that lot of people really recommend, and

it's a really good, like, goaling exercise for me.

Honestly, I just enjoy the process of sitting down and being like, okay, what happened this year?

And sometimes I'll do it with my calendar next to me so I can actually see the stuff.

Um, one of my favorite things to do is open up Google Photos, which is where all my photos is.

Open up a document and just sort of journal out the year as I scroll through my photos, Big stuff that happens, important things that I totally forgot about that happened as I was going through the year.

Just a sort of brain dump as I scroll through 12 months of photos.

Sometimes I'll even pull the photos that I care the most about into that doc and just in the course of one sitting, put together this very informal, messy, I don't know, document about the year that I just had.

I don't know if it actually accomplishes much, and

to be honest, I don't often find myself going back and like reading old ones, but

I really enjoy the process, so I keep doing it.

And then at the end, I try to just sit down and be like, okay, what are some actual things I would like to do next year?

Sometimes they're big, sometimes they're small.

Sometimes they're like bucket listy type things.

Sometimes it's just like, I would like to, I don't know, learn how to play the recorder again because I was sick at it in third grade and I want to see if I can get it back.

That's a thing that has been on the list in the past, and

I didn't do it, and it won't be on the list again.

But anyway, that's not what we're here to talk about.

What we're here to talk about on the show today is predictions.

Joanna Stern and Neelai Patel are going to join me, as they did last week, to talk about what happened in 2020, and

we're going to talk about what happens in 2026.

We did this last year where we made mild, medium and spicy predictions.

We're going to do the same thing this year.

We're going to go through our old predictions, we're going to make some new ones, and

we're going to see if we can figure out what's coming.

This is a complicated business in which to figure out what is coming.

Anybody who tells you they could have guessed what 2025 was going to look like was lying to you, including us, as you'll hear from how our predictions went.

But we're going to have a lot of fun and it's just fun to figure out what we're think as we go into next year.

But first, I have more photos to go through.

I had another kid in 2025 and that has meant like an absolutely gigantic explosion of 400 photos of a child lying on the ground.

So I'm going to scroll through all those.

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That's a T L A S s I a n.com Jira atlassian.com Jira all right, we're back.

Back with me again a year later, Neil Patel.

Last year all three of us came to this episode with three predictions.

The instruction was basically a mild one, a medium one and a spicy one.

And not only did you have to make your prediction, but

the other two people on the had to decide whether they agreed or not.

And we were gonna score everybody on who was right.

Our predictions were by and large very bad.

Yeah, I'm looking at my, like, oh, I got that wrong.

So we're just, we're just gonna call 2025 a wash.

It's just, you know, we're, everybody gets pass on 2,025.

But I do want to just quickly read both of you your own predictions.

So Joanna, your predictions for 2025, your, your mild prediction was that we will still be posting to a million social accounts.

Uh, I think you, you, you were correct on that one.

Uh, your medium take was that Meta is going to continue to outpace Apple on glasses.

Um, which I think is like true by default in that Apple did nothing.

There was a new Vision Pro that added nothing.

And then your spicy prediction was a touchscreen Mac or an iPad with macOS which has not come true.

But as we discussed on the last episode, 2026, if you want to rehash that one for 2026, I think you have a real shot at it.

Yeah, I think iPad with macOS like didn't come true in literally, but

there were so many changes to ipados that make it so much more like macOS that I do think I was kind of right.

If I were, if I were in the business of giving half points, I would probably give you a half point.

I think we can agree that I was right there.

And then Nilay, your mild prediction was that Alexa is going to.

Or Alexa plus rather is going to be fine.

I want you to self score on that one because you, you have delivered many thoughts on Alexa plus.

I assumed that the industry could, could put an LLM in front of a traditional smart home and they can't.

It's good enough to be available but like, is it a downgrade from what Alexa was before?

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The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions | The Vergecast

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