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  • the twitterverse is a crazy place as it is.


  • I mean that's not even the news, that's almost like every single synapse fired in every, every single person's brain depending on who you follow on the hashtag you follow.


  • Um I've looked at this market hard for about six months and I always tell my students news in my opinion, usually ask one of two agendas To get you to get emotional and sometimes to transact now.

    私は半年間、この市場を一生懸命見てきましたが、私の考えでは、ニュースはたいてい2つの目的のうちの1つを問いかけてきます。 感情的にさせることと、今すぐ取引することです。

  • I'm not saying there's a big conspiracy out there, but I'm just saying those are the two things that we probably see.


  • And now with the mobile apps and everything, it's unlike anything I ever saw back in my day and both of those impulses are usually wrong when it comes to trading.


  • How do you teach new people to even process news?


  • I mean you just talked about going blank on an asset for 24 hours.


  • Is there a way that you can go on?


  • I think what tim Ferriss called a low media diet back in his four hour work week days, right where he wouldn't consume media?


  • How do you tell people to do it?


  • Uh yeah, I don't think that the news cycle has much effect on cryptocurrencies.


  • Certainly an on Bitcoin.


  • In fact, I think that the news follows the price as opposed to preceding it and it's something that we see every single time Bitcoin drops and this is not unique to Bitcoin.


  • This happens with the stock market as well, the minute it goes down you start to get all the bad news and all the reasons it's going to zero and all the reasons that this is the, This is the generational top that we've all been calling for the last 30 years.


  • We're finally right.


  • Um, so let's take Bitcoin for example, Bitcoin tops, Somebody sees an opportunity to rinse a whole lot of leverage out of the system.


  • Forget the news.


  • The reason Bitcoin dropped from 65,000, is because $10 billion 10,000 and a million individual traders had there accounts liquidated.


  • That's an opportunity that someone with a lot of money is going to take every time.


  • Okay, so let's just say that the first beginning of that move was purely technical.


  • It was traders same reason we saw gold dump a couple weeks ago by the way because it lost the support level, stop losses triggered, there was a cascade and it went down, that's gold so it's much easier on an asset like Bitcoin.


  • So we have a cascade of liquidations, price drops to 50 price proceeds.


  • The news, then the bad news starts Tesla is not going to accept Bitcoin for cars anymore.


  • There might have been 10 people on the planet that would have ever traded their deflationary asset, hard money Bitcoin for a car that's worth 30% less the minute you drive it off the lot.


  • But let's take that aside, right, nobody's buying a Tesla with Bitcoin, it was the idea that maybe they could, that sparks the energy debate Which we've had for 10 years and happens every single time.


  • Bitcoin droughts.


  • That leads into china China banning Bitcoin has happened 17 times and there's still a big point in China that leads to India that leads to bitcoins only for criminals and hackers and ransomware and that's where we're at now.

    それが中国につながります 中国がビットコインを禁止したのは17回目ですが、中国にはまだ大きな問題があり、それがインドにつながり、ビットコインは犯罪者やハッカー、ランサムウェアのためだけに使われるようになり、それが現在の状況になっています。

  • And that is the same negative news cycle that happens after Bitcoin price drops every time, which instills as you said, fear in people and causes weak hands to exit their positions at the bottom.


  • And if you look at on chain metrics or anything fundamental about Bitcoin wallet, all that was happening.


  • The biggest wallets were buying the entire time in the 30,000 as retail continued to one more story, I'm going to hold my Bitcoin, I'm gonna hold it one more negative story.


  • Finally give in and sell and then price eventually rockets.


  • It's the same with every market, it's the same every time.


  • And it also happens with the good news by the way, right?


  • Just like you said, the Uber driver, The barber the Bitcoin is going to $10 million 20,000.


  • Those are the signs that you're starting to get the positive news cycle to the upside doubt Scott.


  • Tell me if I'm wrong.


  • But does this happen 10 times more in crypto than it does in equities or any other market we've seen probably in history it's magnified in this space, right.


  • It seems like it, but I can tell you and I'm not old in this market at all.


  • Right.


  • I mean, given this market only existed for 12 years, but I got in in 2016, there are people I interview 14, 13, 11, 10, you know, have really been here since the Bitcoin pizza days.


  • Um, and back then it was the same general narrative, but it wasn't the media right?


  • It was the community, the media didn't talk about it.


  • The media didn't talk about Bitcoin.


  • So when I got in 2017 If the queen was mentioned in Forbes price went up 15 Right?


  • Because there was no news cycle for Bitcoin and this is the first time I think 2017 when retail really started to pile in and you had that first sort of bubble.


  • That was the first time it became part of the news cycle.


  • But 2000 20 late 20 early 21 was the first time that you saw it as a part of the ticker on CNBC right next to every asset as a part of every single 30 minute financial news program.


  • So I think it's also a function of just the, the assets, maturing mainstream adoption or at least awareness is happening and therefore they're talking about it more, which then amplifies every single story because people don't understand the assets.


  • So once 11 network runs a negative story, 10 more networks run to pick up that story and give their own opinion as news on that story.


  • We know how the mainstream news cycle works obviously.


  • So I do think right now that crypto takes a beating on the downside because everyone's talking about it.


  • It's kind of a good thing when you think about it in that regard.


  • Yeah, it's better than the old days when nobody would talk about it.


  • You know, back in 2013 and 14 when everyone like you said wanted people to talk about it.


  • This definitely seems magnified even things I've seen over the years even like compared to dot coms, maybe it's because it's got this period appear network, maybe it's new investors, maybe it's a super mobile oriented, maybe it's a digital thing and also this news is digital and it's come of age in the age of twitter and mobil twitter and instagram, I don't know, something feels magnified.

    長年見てきたドットコムと比較しても、確かに拡大しているように感じます。それは、この時代のネットワークが現れているからかもしれませんし、新しい投資家の存在かもしれませんし、超モバイル志向かもしれませんし、デジタル的なものかもしれませんし、また、このニュースはデジタルであり、twitterやmobil twitter、instagramの時代になったのかもしれませんが、何か拡大しているように感じます。

  • It also seems to be a really convenient, you know whipping boy and great fear device.


  • I mean if you're a news media outlet, I mean you know if you go into crypto news or you go into us Treasury news, I mean maybe it's more of a no brainer now.


  • Um, and I could be wrong.


  • Uh, but we'll see if I can, I think it's a function of the manner in which we consume news now, which said very eloquently.


  • I mean Bitcoin was born in a digital age, it's a digital asset and now we live in a world where opinion is news.


  • News is 24 7 you, I mean listen, I'm 44 years old when I grew up you either watch peter Jennings or dan rather once a day and that's how you consume the news.


  • That was it.


  • There was no 20 Yeah, I've been CNN maybe started in the early eighties when I was a kid, but there was no 20 people didn't watch the news 24 7, there was no social media, they weren't consuming this stuff.


  • You watched your 30 minutes of news, you got the key stories generally with actual facts being presented God forbid and you went about your life.


  • But now we live in a world where everybody's talking about everything all the time.


  • You know, and you and every single person views themselves as justified media personality, every person with a Twitter account, they've got their voice and whoever is listening to them their their own network, even if it's only 17 people listening and that's the way that people sort of approach the world now.


  • So yes, I think it's just all amplified by the very nature of the media and because it's an asset that the big players probably are starting to take notice of and potentially fear.


  • I don't believe, I don't believe I'm not so hyperbolic that I believe that they want to kill Bitcoin because they think it's going to replace the dollar and all those sort of maximalist opinions.


  • But you know, it's the old saying, you know, first they ignore you, then they fight you, then they join you whatever, you know, I think we're at the then they fight you phase um after 50 make it ignored and it would just go away.


  • Now it's not so we're seeing the news kick in.


  • Uh huh.


the twitterverse is a crazy place as it is.



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スコット・メルカー、暗号の主流採用とトレード時の「悪いニュース」への対処法について ? (Scott Melker on Mainstream Adoption of Crypto & How To Deal With 'Bad News' When Trading ?)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 09 月 07 日