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  • The US and China have agreed on a trade deal.

  • But they seem to understand theirdealin conflicting ways.

  • And the ideological differences run deep.

  • Welcome back to China Uncensored.

  • I'm Chris Chappell.

  • This episode has been sponsored by Surfshark.

  • Because when you surf the web,

  • you should be using a VPN to protect your identity.

  • America's trade war with China continues.

  • But President Trump announced this month both countries

  • have agreed on at least a temporary trade deal.

  • As Trump wrote on his favorite platform,

  • The deal I just made with China is, by far,

  • the greatest and biggest deal ever made

  • for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country.

  • In fact, there is a question as to whether or not

  • this much product can be produced?

  • Our farmers will figure it out.

  • Thank you China!”

  • Now I know what you're thinking:

  • Wow!

  • That sounds like the greatest and biggest deal

  • ever made in the history of our country!”

  • So here's what this great deal actually says...

  • Um, wait, it doesn't say anything.

  • Shelley, why are these notes blank?

  • What's that?

  • Nothing was actually written down.

  • Apparently, what happened is that on October 11,

  • President Trump met with China's Vice Premier Liu He.

  • Then Trump announced they had made

  • Phase Oneof a trade deal.

  • But it was more of a handshake deal

  • than a written-down sort of deal.

  • And like many handshake deals,

  • each side remembers it a little differently.

  • From Trump's perspective,

  • China will buy as much as $50 billion in U.S. agricultural goods

  • in exchange for the suspension of additional tariffs.”

  • Specifically, Trump has delayed the tariff increase

  • that was originally going to go into effect on October 15—

  • on $250 billion dollars of Chinese goods.

  • But Trump has not reduced any existing tariffs

  • or stopped future tariffs.

  • But from China's perspective coming out of that handshake,

  • they still want more talks,

  • and would need *existing* tariffs rolled back

  • in order to reach that 50 billion worth of agricultural imports.

  • And instead of this month's handshake

  • being phase one of the trade deal,

  • China's Vice Premier said the meeting merely

  • laid an important foundation for a phase one agreement.”

  • So where does that leave the US and China?

  • It's like Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

  • It's still unresolved,

  • and overall you're just left feeling disappointed.

  • And will Rey and Kylo Ren fall in love

  • or forever remain mortal enemies?

  • Well, you won't have to wait much longer to find out.

  • In both cases.

  • As for the trade deal,

  • we may get the next episode as soon as mid-November.

  • That's when President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping

  • will meet at the APEC forum in Chile.

  • Presumably after another one of those

  • super awkward world-leader family photos.

  • Everyone loves those.

  • Especially Putin.

  • So if Trump and Xi still need to meet in November

  • to make the phase one deal,

  • does that mean that October's meeting was a wash?

  • This is what US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told FOX News.

  • “I think we're in a better place.

  • And remember, for a while, there was no talk.

  • It was broken off.

  • Now they're back at the table.

  • Clearly they want to make a deal.

  • We would like to make a deal.

  • But from our point of view,

  • it has to be the right deal.

  • And it doesn't have to be in November.

  • It's more critical that it be a proper deal

  • than exactly when it occurs.”

  • So what would a “proper dealinvolve?

  • Well, phase onethe written kind,

  • not just the handshake kind

  • could reduce upcoming US tariffs,

  • in exchange for China's promise

  • to buy those American agricultural goods.

  • That's important to Trump,

  • because making American farmers happy

  • makes it easier for him to win the 2020 presidential election.

  • And China, for its part, wants to have a deal, too.

  • US tariffs over the last year-plus

  • have hurt the Chinese economy pretty hard.

  • Last quarter, China's official statistics

  • reported the lowest GDP growth in 27 years.

  • Of course, everyone knows that they fudge the GDP numbers,

  • but the fact that they let the *official* number go that low

  • is a sign of a weakening economy.

  • And a weak economy threatens Xi Jinping's grip on power.

  • So that, along with Trump seeking re-election,

  • means both sides want a phase one deal

  • and the political brownie points that follow.

  • But a phase one deal like this

  • won't solve the fundamental trade problem.

  • The Chinese regime has been cheating on trade

  • for two decades

  • from intellectual property theft,

  • to forced technology transfers,

  • to illegal subsidies.

  • And they continue to cheat.

  • A final trade deal would need to resolve all these things.

  • Maybe that's phase two.

  • Maybe that's phase seven.

  • Maybe that's phase never.

  • But whenever it happens,

  • it can't just be a pinky-swear promise.

  • The most important is enforcement.

  • Because their record hasn't been that great on enforcement,

  • so we need to have a real enforcement mechanism.”

  • “'Not great' is like an understatement, right?

  • I mean the Chinese break promises all over town.

  • They break promises with the WTO.

  • They broke promises with the US.

  • How are you going to get that enforcement in there,

  • and get the Chinese to follow it?”

  • Well if they don't,

  • we really don't have much of an arrangement.”

  • No, you really don't.

  • Which is why even if Trump and Xi sign something in November,

  • it won't actually end the longstanding trade tensions

  • between the US and China.

  • Those tensions come down to more than

  • just trade and enforcement of WTO rules.

  • There are deep ideological differences

  • between the US government,

  • and the Chinese Communist Party.

  • The Chinese Communist Party insists on

  • controlling all private enterprise.

  • This article in the state-run People's Daily last week

  • says that private companies

  • must strengthen the work of Party-building.

  • It says that nearly 1.6 million private companies inside China

  • already have Communist Party branches within their structures,

  • and the rest should follow their example.

  • That's exactly the opposite of what the US wants.

  • The US wants private companies to be, in fact, private,

  • and not controlled by the whims of the Communist Party.

  • Unless, of course,

  • it means the Communist Party can force private companies

  • to buy $50 billion dollars in US agricultural products.

  • But let's conveniently ignore that little irony.

  • And anyway, the ideological differences run deeper.

  • Because the US and China are competing for geopolitical power

  • a.k.a. world domination.

  • China pledges billions of dollars to Africa...

  • The US pledges billions of dollars to Africa.

  • China pushes its companies

  • to dominate 5G wireless communications...

  • The US pushes its own companies to dominate 5G.

  • China wants to build an airport in Greenland...

  • The US wants to...buy Greenland.

  • So it's unclear if any trade deal

  • can really solve these deep differences.

  • And no matter what gets signed in November,

  • it can only be phase one of a much bigger battle.

  • And this episode has been sponsored by Surfshark.

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  • Once again, I'm Chris Chappell.

  • See you next time.

The US and China have agreed on a trade deal.

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Trump’s China Trade “Deal” Off to a Rocky Start | US China Trade War

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    zijun su に公開 2021 年 07 月 09 日
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