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  • The total economic loss of covid-19 in terms of GDP and health costs is

  • estimated to be around 16 trillion dollars, according to a study by two

  • Harvard University professors.

  • To put that in perspective, that is 90 percent of total GDP.

  • Clearly, we need to focus on reopening the economy as soon as possible.

  • And I'm hearing there's talk about a vaccine passport.

  • What is that? Yes, this is this kind of futuristic idea where we actually

  • have a requirement to get a certificate of vaccination before we can do

  • things. It's pretty clear that vaccination certificates are moving

  • forward. And given that, you know, how do we do it Right?

  • What if we were to be required to prove to employers, airlines or sporting

  • venues that we're immune to the virus?

  • I think it's a little premature to be thinking and to be talking about how

  • do we get people these immunization certificates.

  • Last thing you want to do is create further inequalities and make people

  • feel like they they really can't access the same things.

  • We have to be ready for this to happen in the future.

  • And if we missed the window a little bit and don't make money off that or

  • whatever, that the financial goal is some way, shape or form, we've all

  • realized that this has got to be in place.

  • So what are vaccine verifications exactly?

  • And can they speed up a return to normal?

  • For herd immunity, between 58 percent and 94 percent of the population need

  • to be immune, that means anywhere from one hundred and ninety two to three

  • hundred eleven million Americans.

  • As of mid-January 2021, nearly 10 million Americans have received at least

  • their first dose of a covid-19 vaccine, while the vast majority of

  • Americans believe that the vaccine is important to facilitate a return to

  • normal life. Nearly half plan to defer vaccination for three months or up

  • to a year. And so this, I think, combined with the inherent challenge of

  • manufacturing and distributing vaccines, really threatens to slow progress

  • towards herd immunity and ultimately to economic recovery.

  • That's where immunization verification, passports or certificates could

  • come in. Remember the yellow card immunization forms?

  • in the age of the global pandemic, That could be a smartphone application

  • or a QR code on paper.

  • If we can make it work with travel, I think it allows us to study the

  • technology as well as the validation, as well as to keep the confidence

  • and privacy that will then allow us to think about how do we use this for

  • other things. I don't think it's going to make and I don't believe it's

  • going to make social distancing and masking go away until we hit herd

  • immunity. But I think it's again, it's this process of maybe we can reopen

  • up things a little bit faster.

  • For nearly five years, the Kutta Gruder has been advocating for digital IDs

  • as a basic human need, especially in developing countries.

  • She's currently on a WHO sponsored working group for smart vaccination

  • certificates over the course of six months.

  • The group is hoping to establish global standards for these types of

  • solutions. This is a very complex multistakeholder effort.

  • Obviously, they're trying to do this at an international level.

  • But the idea is to do something I think quite similar to what we've done

  • with ID 2020 certification, which is what are the specifications of a good

  • digital ID solution or in this case, a smart vaccination certificate.

  • And how do we get to the point where there's almost a list of WHO

  • recognized solutions, but we don't pretend that in the interim some of

  • these solutions are moving forward independently.

  • Dozens of startups, as well as major companies like Microsoft,

  • Ticketmaster, Apple and Google have shown interest or are currently

  • working on creating their version of an immunization certificate for

  • covid-19.

  • I think where we're at, at least on the technical side, is a bit of a Wild

  • West. You know, it's pretty clear that vaccination certificates are moving

  • forward. And given that, you know, how do we do it?

  • Right. And how do we ensure that that investment is is made in the in the

  • sort of greatest possible way?

  • This is not the time to move fast and break things.

  • Onfido is one of the startups who jumped on the idea early as an identity

  • verification company with two hundred million dollars in funding.

  • A vaccination app was a no brainer.

  • So the first thing where we fit in is making sure that it is Kevin Trilli

  • or Tala That is the person signing up for this service.

  • And then there's a second step that says use the core service, book your

  • your travel in the case, decide how or whatever.

  • Then the third is being able to add a new piece that says embed your

  • health status as part of that application so it can be shared with the

  • person that you're booking travel with.

  • And then in the case of the other one, with employment, you sign up for

  • the service, you declare your employment status, and then you'd have some

  • health testing status that you would update and maintain so you can come

  • to the office on a regular basis.

  • The life cycle of a pandemic looks something like this.

  • Right now. We're in the pandemic phase, meaning there's widespread human

  • infection. Even with a vaccine, there's a lot we don't know, for example,

  • the duration of immunity or if asymptomatic transmission can happen

  • despite vaccination.

  • And more importantly, only about three percent of the U.S.

  • population has been immunized so far.

  • Our focus should be on getting people vaccinated.

  • Once we get enough people vaccinated that we can actually then we can

  • leverage that vaccinated pool as a as something that we can use.

  • That's when I think that immunization certificates become, something we

  • can talk about. That should happen around a time 40 to 50 percent of the

  • population have been vaccinated, according to L.G..

  • Even then, it's an interim solution.

  • If the pandemic turns endemic, meaning seasonally circulating in society,

  • or we simply reach herd immunity, the use of verification solutions

  • becomes pointless.

  • It could be a year, right, depending on how slowly we got there.

  • And we remember as if more people take vaccination, if we stay, we're

  • staying below that seventy five percent threshold that say, let's use that

  • as a threshold and that could change the below that it takes that much

  • longer to get up there.

  • Right. Because we've we.

  • Infection enough such that left people are going to get sick, which is

  • wonderful, but it also means that we're going to if people don't get

  • vaccinated, we're going to be creeping to that level.

  • So thank goodness we have that vaccine.

  • The reason we're having this conversation is because we have a vaccine.

  • Vaccination records in the US are tracked by 61 independently run

  • immunization information systems, according to the American Immunization

  • Registry Association.

  • They help public health authorities ensure that patients are administered

  • a second dose and to monitor the safety and efficacy of the vaccines.

  • Sharing data between state lines requires approval from the governor or a

  • health officer, and very few have embraced vaccine apps So far.

  • The data in these systems are validated by the state health department, by

  • the provider who vaccinated, so on and so forth.

  • How do we connect that data with some form of digital I.D.

  • that the patient can now carry with them?

  • Is it worthwhile to try and stretch our already stretched super thin public

  • health resources?

  • I'm not sure this is the right time and place to do that.

  • Collaboration between governments, private providers and international

  • stakeholders will be key in the success of immunization verifications.

  • Onfido is based in the UK and submitted the product to the British

  • government in the spring of twenty twenty.

  • Kevin says they're not focused on scale at the moment.

  • This has to come out in stages.

  • There's a lot we have to figure out, though, about a system like this.

  • So in a way we're sort of innovating.

  • And if we if we can impact twenty five percent of the population, the

  • cycle, it's great.

  • That's a huge impact of people that could go further into their worlds.

  • You know, in this really restrictive world that we're in today.

  • While much of the app can be customized, privacy cannot.

  • a poorly designed digital ID solution could become a surveillance tool.

  • Privacy is not a concern until it is a concern.

  • So it must be architected into the system at the beginning.

  • And the example I would say is you don't need to tell me your first name,

  • last name, your address, everything about yourself and all of your testing

  • data and give that to everybody.

  • You should just say I'm good.

  • And the way you know it's me is because I use my face to unlock my phone,

  • to access that credential, to then send it to you.

  • And then what's sent to you is just the status.

  • If you can do it in that way, then privacy is protected.

  • As with anything that entails digitization and access, there are some

  • equity concerns.

  • For one, requiring that individuals are vaccinated to be able to

  • participate is risky, especially for communities of color who are more

  • skeptical of the vaccine.

  • The last thing those communities want is for Big Brother to be watching.

  • The other thing is the intention may be to enable some people to go back

  • to work. But is it seen as well If I don't get the vaccine or if I

  • hesitate to the vaccine, will that cut my opportunities?

  • Another equity concern is regarding access to technology and high speed

  • Internet. Some providers are working on making ID verifications on paper,

  • a QR code embedded with information that can't be falsified.

  • What we design and build today is going to have longevity past this.

  • This may have utility in routine immunization.

  • This may have utility in a whole host of use cases outside of health care.

  • We should be leading the world on this problem.

  • So I think we have a second opportunity here to come with technology and

  • other systems where we can get back to maybe the next one.

  • We're actually going to lead the world in the way that we handle this.

The total economic loss of covid-19 in terms of GDP and health costs is

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Will Covid-19 Vaccine Passports Work?

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    joey joey に公開 2021 年 05 月 23 日
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