字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント The global electric vehicle market is heating up and China wants to dominate. Increasingly more and more analysts expect China to be a leader in EV production, partly because it has the largest automobile market in the world, and then it has all these government policies to support consumers to buy EVs. The Chinese government has invested at least 60 billion dollars to support the EV industry, and it's pushing an ambitious plan to transition to all electric or hybrid cars by 2035. They have an all of society approach to winning and dominating the electric vehicle market globally. In 2020, EV sales in the U.S. were far below Europe and China. Out of the 3.24 million electric car sold, only 328,000 were in the U.S. , 1.33 million were sold in China and 1.39 million were sold in Europe. And as we go to 2025, China will pull away from everyone else, accounting for at least half of total global vehicle sales. Despite the pandemic, deliveries of EV's grew year over year in 2020 by 43 percent globally, the U.S. only saw a four percent increase. But there are signs that the U.S. is getting more serious about going electric. President Joe Biden has renewed the U.S. commitment to fighting climate change with a goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050. He's also announced investments in green infrastructure, including adding an additional 500,000 charging stations in a move that came as a surprise to many. General Motors, one of the largest automakers in the U.S., announced plans to exclusively offer electric vehicles by 2035. They've got a long ways to go. Carl, let me give you some perspective on GM's global sales. Last year, the company sold about 6.6 million vehicles worldwide. Take a guess how many were fully electric? Just 49,149 . But can the U.S. catch up to China's massive lead? U.S. seems to be a kind of the young reluctant colt saying, well, we'll get around to it, but what's the hurry? Well, there is a hurry. The race is on. China and Europe are way ahead. Let's take a look at how China came to control the market. The country decided over a decade ago that it wanted to be the world leader in electric cars. The industry in China is one that has been very interesting to me because it's an example of how government policy can potentially drive innovation in an industry. China is betting big on electric vehicles for several reasons. First, they've always been a follower in traditional vehicles and they wanted to find a way to catch up technologically and not be dependent on Europe or the U.S. on engine technology. Also, they have a significant air pollution problem and they're also the world's largest importer of oil. China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060. In an effort to support the adoption of EVs, the Chinese government has played a massive role. It has spent tens of billions of dollars to support the sales of electric vehicles. It's no secret that without regulation, without rules, without subsidies, electric vehicles would have never gotten off the ground. Whether it's in California, in China or in Europe, it's been the government pushing the electric vehicle future. China has been the most aggressive in this regard. China has subsidies and incentives that benefit automakers, suppliers and consumers. In certain cities for example, in Beijing, you can only have access to the city center in a car if you're driving an electric vehicle. Elsewhere in Shanghai, there's an incentive if you buy a gasoline powered car, you must, first of all, pay $12,000 for the license plate just to have the rights to buy the car. Now, if you buy an EV, they waive that licensing fee, you get it for free, you save $12,000. And then even in cities that are not restricted, the registration wise, they kind of restrict your access to the road. You can only if you drive a ICE car, you can only go onto the street between a certain time and a certain time and perhaps certain days during the week. And I CE is short for internal combustion engine. China also has a quota system for manufacturers, they must produce a certain percentage of electric vehicles every year or they're fined. But some question if this is sustainable. In 2019, after the government cut back on some incentives, sales fell and the shares of EVs overall dropped from eight percent in mid-2019 to five percent by the end of the year. Other than Tesla, the only way to sell EV's so far has been through subsidies, whether it's state or federal. We saw that in China a lot. What we haven't seen is organic demand really outside of incentives or early adopters. The amount of funding that has been poured into the industry, it's mind boggling. It is thirty three percent of all sales, not thirty three percent of profits, but thirty three percent of all sales. This is a government created market. But subsidies cannot last forever. And some think with the introduction of more luxury brands like Tesla, consumers can eventually be weaned off them. I think the perception is that China is winning the electric vehicle race because there's so many subsidies in place, but if we look closer, something happened in 2020 that shifted the picture. When Tesla arrived in the market and other EV startups like Nio and Xpeng began to deliver highly desirable, good looking, reliable, long range vehicles. Chinese customers for the first time said we don't need subsidies to make the decision to buy this electric car. In the US, there is a $7,500 tax credit available, but not all cars are eligible and the incentive goes away if the automaker sells more than two hundred thousand cars. Tesla hit that threshold in 2018. Democrats have introduced a new bill to expand the credit for automakers who have hit the threshold and have extended the limit to 400,000 cars for a $7,000 tax credit. For example, Tesla doesn't break out deliveries by region, but it delivered almost 500,000 cars last year during the pandemic. The Biden administration here in the U.S. seems much more open to expanding, if not providing additional incentives for the EV market as well as the infrastructure buildout, which is one of the major concerns. China has been very supportive of the EV infrastructure and EV companies for years, and we've seen it in their EV sales and almost same thing with Europe. There's no question that all of this move to electric globally would not have really gotten traction without China first mandating that electric would be part of its future and as the largest vehicle market in the world, that has a global impact. Primary barrier for consumers to buy electric vehicles is the cost, and batteries represent the bulk of the cost of the electric vehicles besides subsidies. China's government also provides support and battery manufacturing and the supply chain. It's the leading producer of electric batteries and motors. Battery production around the world is concentrated in Northeast Asia. It's Japan, Korea and China. Together, they account for about 95 percent of total battery production for vehicles. Now within that ninety five percent, China has more than 60 percent at this point. So it's clearly the leader in terms of battery production capabilities. And analysts are basically across the board saying that China has control of the chemicals, the production facilities that are needed for electric vehicle battery production for the next probably five to 10 years. So there's actually some groups in the U.S. who are also raising this as a concern if the future of mobility is going to be electric. Other than Tesla, battery manufacturing in the U.S. is almost nonexistent, General Motors and others have announced plans or initiatives to kind of enter the market. GM has a 2.3 billion dollar investment right now with LG Chem. They're building a plant in Ohio and that plan is set to open, be finished in 2020 too. Look at the situation, the U.S. and China relations are at their worst in 50 years. And should the U.S. become over-reliant on Chinese batteries? Well, it would be so simple. The Chinese would say, sorry, we don't have enough supply for you. China also made charging a national priority and has been installing an extensive network throughout the country, it has over half a million charging points compared to the U.S. that has roughly one hundred thousand. Even Tesla has a massive network in China with thousands of points. And China has already unified their charging infrastructure. So whatever car you're buying, you know that you could go to a station and get charged up. So America's first step should be try to work toward a unified standard for charging so that no matter what electric vehicle you're buying, you'll have peace of mind. Oh, I can get it charged there. No problem. Tesla has seen rapid growth in China after building a factory in Shanghai at the end of 2019. The company earned 6.66 billion in revenue from the country in 2020. And the model three was also the best selling NEV last year. Tesla's China made Model Y began deliveries in January and was the third best selling electric car in February. Tesla has played its hand really well. Elon Musk understood that China wanted to be a leader in electric vehicles and that the incentives may be in place for Tesla to take advantage of. Though other foreign automakers make cars in China, they were all required to set up joint ventures with a Chinese automaker. SAIC owns 50 percent of GM in China. Ford also has two joint ventures there. But Tesla was able to get a unique deal in the country. They're the first automaker to come into China and that the government let them own their own factory and let them operate without a joint venture with a local Chinese affiliate. So Tesla's growth in China thus far has been helped by the Chinese government. It's been a red carpet welcome for Tesla because the Chinese government sees the value of having Tesla and its suppliers right there planted inside China, further fortifying China's stance as the strongest EV industry in the world. But Tesla has lowered its price in China a couple of times at first to qualify for subsidies and then because of cheaper Chinese made batteries. One of the reason Tesla did extremely well in China this year is because it had price cuts a couple of times and the biggest cut was a percent, a beginning of October. So that really boosted the orders. So we are looking at an older number of 12, 13,000 a month in September, all of a sudden jump to about 31,000 in October. Tesla also dominates the U.S. market. The company made up 79 percent of all electric cars registered in 2020. The only non-Tesla of the top five cars was the Chevy Bolt, which had around 19,000 vehicles registered compared to the Model 3, which alone was over 90,000. The company's market cap grew over 500 billion in 2020, making it worth more than the nine largest automakers combined, even though it sells a fraction of the amount of cars. China sold roughly one million more EVs in 2020 than the U.S., with less aggressive subsidies and lack of battery manufacturing. The United States has its work cut out for it if it wants to catch up. The U.S. and China are really different markets. The U.S. is not going to mandate certain things as much as China will. China kind of had mandates to cut down on pollution. They had the very large incentives. Their owners in many of these companies that are pushing the EVs in the US, we have to have more of an organic growth. Plus, the consumers in China and the US are quite different. While the Chinese will buy miniature cheap EVs, Americans are more drawn to SUVs and gas guzzling trucks. In fact, Ford's F-series, which includes the F -150, remained America's best selling vehicle for the 39th straight year in 2020. The F-series brought in 42 billion dollars in revenue in 2019, which is more than the NFL, NHL, NBA and Major League Baseball combined. New EV trucks pose a threat to the truck makers market share. When word came out about the Cybertruck, the main message was: we're going after your profits on your biggest selling vehicles trucks. So Ford and GM responded and said, oh, we better not be asleep at the wheel. There are a slew of electric trucks coming in the U.S. in the next few years and a number of startups entering the space. American auto giants are making big changes too. Make no mistake, this is General Motors and Mary Barra making a very clear and declarative statement right now. They will be fully electric and they plan to be there at least by 2035. GM's CEO Mary Barra said we're committed to fighting for EV market share until we are number one in North America. China is GM's largest market worldwide when it comes to total vehicle sales. In the summer of 2020, it launched the Hong Guang Mini with its joint venture Wuling. The small EV cost s $4,400 and has seen rapid growth in sales. They're selling more than 30,000 of these a month. If you can get to that volume in a month, you're doing extremely well. So GM went from sort of quiet and not doing much in China with electrics to this surprise sensational new product. EVs are still a very small percentage of the global auto market, so it's still anyone's game. Automakers want to keep their customers happy, but also don't want to lose market share to startups or Tesla. In China, competition is growing rapidly. Warren Buffett-backed BYD's new luxury sedan jumped into the top 10 electric cars sold in China last year. China also has hundreds of startups. These include shorter range and lower priced cars. But there are also notable luxury brands popping up to compete with Tesla. They include Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto. All three companies have seen high valuations in the past year. The EV auto startup companies are extremely well-funded and welcome on Wall Street and global capital markets. It's the wide open capital market and that's the rich valuation makes the entrepreneurs believe that it is a worthwhile effort to try, even though, you know, the outcome can be binary, but they still think it's attractive venture. In the US, the race between the Detroit automakers and a slew of startups is starting to unfold. GM has unveiled the all-electric Cadillac and Hummer EV. Ford will debut the fully electric Mustang Mach-e. Then there are startups like Rivian, Canoo and Bollinger Motors, all working on electric pickups. In Europe, Volkswagen is another automaker accelerating plans to dominate the EV space. In the fourth quarter of last yeay, it sold more than Tesla, but that number includes plug in hybrids. The German automaker expects half of U.S. sales to be electric vehicles by 2030. While China has a commanding lead, all hope is not lost for the US to catch up. China is ramped up battery production as well as car production for electric vehicles. But the quality of their batteries and particularly the quality of their own cars is still not world class. And that applies to Chinese cars in general. They're not piles of junk, but they're not going to compete with leading European brands or Tesla, though if they're going to set their sights on Europe and the United States, they're going have to raise the quality of those cars overall to be competitive. We've been the standard for the world and so many technologies here in America for 100 years that it's impossible for us to conceive of a future where we're not in charge, we're not the leader, we're not the standard setter. But the risks are real. We can come back. It's early days. Only five percent of total sales are electric. But the longer we wait, the harder it's going to be to do a comeback victory. But we better get our act together now.