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  • you know, one of the big questions I guess I wanted to start off and just ask you about is you know, we keep hearing about this sage group of, you know, advisers to the prime minister, and they're all these scientific advisers.

    私が最初に聞きたかった大きな疑問の一つは... 首相の顧問である賢者のグループのことですが

  • And I sat back today and thought, Why isn't there an economist like you on that committee?


  • Uh, to advise on the ramifications of the economy, which is so massive, So just curious for your thoughts right away to that question.

    巨大な経済の影響について アドバイスをするために その質問に対してすぐにあなたの考えを聞きたいと思っています

  • Well, you're right that there aren't There aren't economists.


  • I think they are largely epidemiologists who have, you know, enormous experience off pandemics on how they evolve and spread out over time.


  • On there's the very eminent people on it.


  • But you rightly say no economists.


  • And their focus, I think, is very much on the infection.


  • How it's spreading, what you can do to try and reduce the infection rate on minimize deaths directly from covert, um, Onda.


  • In some ways, that's a natural thing, that you want the scientists to give you the best view on the spread of the infection.


  • But I think when it comes to actually making policy decisions, you would absolutely want the government also to have analysis, often advice on what are, if you like the side effects off policies that might be very effective in reducing the spread of the virus on perhaps minimizing likely future debt.


  • One of the side effects off that some of which are health side effects some which are economic side effects, which in turn will have health impacts down the road on, I suppose, in an ideal world stage, would do its analysis.


  • And there would be, if you like, a sort of corresponding body that would be assessing the wider, longer term economic and health side effects off policies designed to control infection.


  • I think to some extent, that is happening, but it's not happening in as formal away as the sage procedure.


  • I think it's perhaps generating something of an imbalance in the kind of information that's feeding into government decisions.


  • Yeah, I agree.


  • I think at first when people were trying to quantify the lock down, you know, in monetary terms, people thought Okay, that's very callous.


  • We need to think about saving lives, but as this extends longer and longer, you know, people keep talking about how the lockdowns gonna affect our mental health about how it's gonna affect the economy.


  • Long term, I think.


  • Lord Rose, a former chairman of Marks and Spencer, recently came out and said, For every day we're locked down, it's going to take 2 to 3 weeks to recover.


  • Andi.


  • I think it's important to these conversations, but it's hard to quantify it and get people to really understand the costs of a lock down, isn't it?


  • I think it is very challenging to quantify, but I think the one thing we do know is that very restrictive policies kept in place for many, many weeks, months indeed, on end are likely to have very substantial knock on effects.


  • Negative knock on effects on the wider economy, on also on mental health.


  • Andi other health issues a swell.


  • So whilst it's absolutely difficult to quantify these things on, there's always an element of counterfactual.


  • Well, what would people have done if the government didn't impose the restrictions?


  • Wouldn't they have self imposed restrictions anyway?


  • So there's there's very difficult issues about counterfactual.


  • What would have happened if But I think to not put the effort into trying understanding those knock on effect would itself likely lead to misguided policies?


you know, one of the big questions I guess I wanted to start off and just ask you about is you know, we keep hearing about this sage group of, you know, advisers to the prime minister, and they're all these scientific advisers.

私が最初に聞きたかった大きな疑問の一つは... 首相の顧問である賢者のグループのことですが


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A2 初級 日本語 経済 作用 政策 感染 思い 数値

LOCKDOWN ECONOMIC COST: 長期的なロックダウンはどのように英国にコストをかけることができるか - デイビッド・マイルズ教授 (LOCKDOWN ECONOMIC COST: How A Long-Term Lockdown Could Cost The UK - Professor David Miles)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2020 年 11 月 18 日