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on a proud to be here on Tallix cracker while tried to speak a little bit today about the phenomenon which can and is actually changing the world and whose name is people Power.
I'll start with the anecdote.
Or for those of you who are Monty Python lovers, a Monty Python type of sketch.
Here it is.
It is December 15 2010.
Somebody gives you bet you will look at the crystal bald and you will see the future.
Future will be accurate, but you need to share it to the world.
OK, curios it to kill the cat.
You take the bat, you look at the crystal ball one hour layer.
You're sitting in a building of the national TV in a top show, and you tell the story.
Before the end off 2011 Ben Ali and Mubarak and Gadhafi would be down and prosecuted.
Saleh of Yemen, on Assad of Syria, would be ear challenged or already on their knees, or some of bin Laden would be dead and not commodities would be in Heck no.
The ankle watches you with a strange gaze on his face and then on the top of it, you add, and thousands of the young people from Athens, Madrid in New York will demonstrate for social justice, claiming that they're inspired with Arabs.
Next thing you know, two guys in white appear they give you the strange T shirt.
Take it to the nearest mental institution.
So I would like to speak a little bit about the phenomenon which is behind what already seems to be the very bad year for a bad guys.
And this phenomenon is called people power.
Well, people Power has been there for a while.
It held Gandhi kick the Brits from India.
It helped Marler.
King wins historic racial Struggle.
It helped local, like Walesa, to kick out one million Soviet troops from Poland and beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.
So what's new in it?
What seems to be very new, which is the idea I would like to share with you today that there is a set of rules and skills which can be learned and taught in order to perform successful, nonviolent struggle.
If this is true, we can help this movements Well, 1st 1 analytic skills, I'll try where it all started.
in the Middle East, and for so many years we were living with completely wrong perception off the Middle East.
It was looking like the frozen region literally refrigerator.
And there are only two types of meal there.
Steak, which stands for Ah Mubarak Ben Ali, type off military police dictatorship.
Or a potato, which stands for Teheran type of autocracies.
And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened and millions of young, mainly secular people step out to do the change.
Guess what?
They didn't watch the demographics.
What is the average age of Egyptian?
How long?
Mubarak in Power 31.
So this system just obsolete, expired and young people of our world have awakened one morning on, understood that power lies in their hand.
The rest is the year in front of us.
And guess what?
The same generation absolute with the rules, with their tools, with their games and with their language, which sounds a little bit strange to me.
I'm 38 now.
And can you look at the age of the people of the streets of Europe?
Seems that generation Absalon is coming.
No, let me set another example.
I'm meeting different people drove the world and they're, you know, academics and professors and doctors, and they will always store conditions.
They'll say people power will work only if regime is not toe oppressive.
They will say people power will work if the annual income of the country's between X and that they'll say people power will work on Lee.
If there is a foreign pressure, they will say people power will work only if there is no oil.
And I mean there is a set of conditions.
Well, the news here is that your skills bring in the conflict seems to be more important than the conditions, namely skills of unity, planning and maintain on wall and discipline.
Let me give it example.
I'm coming from country called Serbia because 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders with their big egos behind one single candidate against Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.
Guess what?
That was the day of his defeat.
You look at the Egyptians Day five on the Career Square.
They get rid of their individual symbols.
They appear on the street on Lee with the flag of each.
I will give you contract sample.
You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko, you'll no deal.
So unity is a big thing and this can be achieved.
Same with planning.
Somebody have lied.
Do about a successful and spontaneous, nonviolent revolution that things doesn't exist in a world.
Whenever you see young people in front of the road trying to fraternize with the police or military, somebody was thinking about it before now, at the end of nonviolent discipline.
And this is probably the game changer.
If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you will exclusively win.
You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march 1 idiot or agent provocateur drawing Stone.
Guess what takes all the cameras.
That one guy, one single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.
Now let me move to another place.
Its selection of strategies and tactics.
There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle.
You may follow first to start small second, you think the bell with you can win.
It's only 200 of us in this room.
We won't call for the march of millions, but what we three organized spring graffiti throw tonight all over crack of city.
The city will know, So we pick the tactics, which accommodates to the event especially distinct, recalled the small tactics of dispersion.
They're very useful in in a violent oppression.
We are actually witnessing the picture off one of the best tactics ever used.
It was on the career square where international community was constantly frightened that, you know the Islamists will overtake the revolution while they've organized Christians protecting Muslims where they're praying.
Coptic Wedding Cheered by thousands of Muslims The world has just changed the picture, but somebody was thinking about this previously.
So there are so many things you can do instead of get getting into one place, shouting and Yunel showing off in front of the security forces.
Now there is also another very important dynamics, and this is dynamics.
Normally, analytics don't see this is dynamics between fear and apathy on one side and enthusiasm and humor on another side.
So it works like in video game.
You have a fear high.
You have state of school.
You have enthusiasm higher, you see fear, you starting melting.
They do.
You see people running towards police instead, from the police in Egypt, you can tell that some tongue thing is happening there, and then it's about the humor humor is such a powerful game changer and, of course, was very big in Poland.
You know, we were just a small group of crazy students in Serbia.
When we made this big skit, we put the big petrol barrel with a portrait picture of Mr President on it in the middle of the mainstream, there was a hole in the top, so you could literally come put the coin in, get a baseball bat and hit his face.
Sounds loud.
And within the minutes we were sitting in a nearby cafe having coffee, and there was a clue off people waiting to do this lovely thing.
Well, that's just the beginning of the show.
The real show starts when the police appears.
What they will do, arrest us were nowhere to be seen.
Were like three blocks away.
Observing it from our, you know, espresso bar are as the shoppers with kits doesn't make sense off course, You could bet they've done the most stupid thing.
They arrested the bar and now the picture off the smashed face on the borrow with the policeman, drugging them to the police car.
That was the best day for the photographers from newspapers that they ever will have.
So I mean this.
These are the things you can do, and you can always use the humor.
There is also one big thing about the humor.
It really hurts because these guys really are taking themselves too serious.
When you start to mock them, it hurts.
Now everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet, and it is also very useful skill.
And but don't rush to label things like Facebook.
Revolution with the Revolution don't make stools with the substance.
It is true that Internet, the new media, are very useful in making things faster and cheaper.
They make it also bit safer for the participants because they give the part of anonymity.
We're watching the great example.
Something else Internet can do.
It can put the price tag off.
State sponsored violence over nonviolent protester This is famous group were all colored stayed made by while going him in Egypt and his friend This is the mutilated face off the guy who was beaten by the police.
This is how he became the public, and this is what probably became the stroke which broke camel's back.
But here is also the bad news.
The nonviolent struggle is win in the real world.
In the streets.
You will never change your society towards democracy or, you know, economics.
If you sit down and quick, their risks to be taken and they're living people who are winning this truck well, $1,000,000 question.
What will happen in the Arab world?
And though young people from Arab world were pretty successful in bringing down tree dictators, shaking the region, kind of persuading clever kings from Jordan and Morocco doing substantial reforms, it is yet to be seen.
What will be the outcome?
Whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition?
Or this will land in bloody ethnic and religious conflicts.
Whether the Syrians well maintained on violent discipline, faced with a brutal daily violence, which kills thousands already, or they will slip in a violent struggle and make ugly civil war?
Will this revolutions be whole, like through the transitions and democracy, or be over taken by military or extra Mr Fall kind?
We cannot tell.
Same works for the western sector, where you can see all this excited young people protesting around the world occupying this occupying that are they going to become the world wave are they're going to find their skills, their enthusiasm and their strategy to find what they really want and push for the reform.
Or they would just stay complaining about the endless list off the things they hate.
This is the difference between two town now what the statistics has my friends book.
Maria Stephan's book talks a lot about the violent and nonviolent struggle, and there some shocking data.
If you look at the last 35 years and different social transitions from dictatorship to democracy, you will see that out of 67 different cases in 50 of these cases, it was nonviolent struggle, which was the key power.
This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon.
This is one more reason to look at the generation absolute enough for me to give them credits and hope that they will find their skills and their courage to use the nonviolent struggle and thus fix at least the part of the mess our generation is making in this world.


How to topple a dictator - Srdja Popovic

林宜悉 2020 年 7 月 3 日 に公開
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