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  • WELCOME BACK, OUR GUEST TONIGHT IS AN HISTORIAN,

  • PHILOSOPHER AND BEST SELLING AUTHOR OF SAPAN HODAIS AND 21

  • LESSONS FOR THE 2 13S CENTURY ONE OF THE BRIGHTERREST MINDS,

  • HAVE I WANTED TO HAVE HIM ON AS A GUEST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF

  • YEARS AND THIS FEELS LIKE PERHAPS THE PERFECT TIME, WILL

  • TALK US TO ABOUT WHAT THE WORLD MIGHT LOOK LIKE ONCE THIS STORM

  • PASSES, JOINING US TODAY FROM HIS HOME NEAR JERUSALEM.

  • THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

  • >> THANK YOU FOR INVITING ME.

  • >> James: HOW ARE YOU BEARING UP OVER THERE, ARE YOU OKAY?

  • >> YES, I THINK SO.

  • MY HUSBAND AND ME ARE LOCKED UP IN OUR HOUSE ON THE OUTCIRCUITS

  • BETWEEN JERUSALEM AND TEL AVIV.

  • >> James: YOU DO HAVE ONE OF THOSE MINDS THAT I THINK PEOPLE

  • LOOK IN TIMES LIKE.

  • THIS I KNOW THAT I DO.

  • AND SO I WANT TO DIVE STRAIGHT IN.

  • THE FIRST THING I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW IS HOW DO YOU THINK THE

  • WORLD WILL BE DIFFERENT WHEN WE'VE GOT THROUGH THIS PANDEMIC.

  • >>S THAT COMPLETELY DEPENDS ON-- ST NOT PREDETERMINED STRKS

  • NOT DETERMINISTIC.

  • ST OUR CHOICE.

  • WE HAVE A LOT OF BIG CHOICES TO MAKE.

  • ONE BIG CHOILINGS IS WHETHER WE DEAL WITH THIS CRISIS THROUGH

  • NATIONALISTIC ISOLATION, EACH COUNTRY COMPETING WITH ALL THE

  • OTHERS FOR THE SCARS RESOURCES OR WHETHER WE DEAL WITH IT

  • THROUGH INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY AND COOPERATION.

  • AND WHICH THIS WILL SHAPE NOT JUST THE CRISIS BUT ALSO THE

  • WORLD FOR YEARS TO COME.

  • EARLY ON THE LEVEL OF EACH INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY, EACH COUNTRY

  • HAS TO CHOOSE WHETHER IT DEALS WITH THE CRISIS IN AN

  • AUTHORITARIAN WAY BY EMPOWERING SOME DICTATOR OR POWERFUL

  • AUTHORITY OR WHETHER IT DEALS WITH THE CRISIS BY EMPOWERING

  • THE CITIZENS AND TEACHING DEMOCRATIC CHECKS AND BALANCES.

  • AND WE SEE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES ADOPTING VERY DIFFERENT

  • APPROACHES.

  • AND THIS IS OBVIOUSLY SHAPED THIS COUNTRY FOR YEARS TO COME.

  • NOT JUST FOR A FEW WEEKS.

  • BUT IN THE COMING WEEKS, ARE THE CRITICAL POINTS.

  • IN WHICH THESE DECISIONS ARE BEING MADE, WHATEVER COMES

  • AFTERWARDS, IT IS LIKE COMING TO A PARTY AFTER THE PARTY IS OVER

  • AND THE ONLY THING LEFT TO DO IS TO WASH THE DISHES.

  • NOW THEY ARE HANDING OUT TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, THEY ARE

  • CHAFNLGING THE JOB MARKET.

  • WHOEVER KOSMS IN 2021 WILL FIND IT VERY, VERY DIFFICULT TO KIND

  • OF REWIND THE MOVIE AND TRY SOMETHING ELSE.

  • >> James: THERE IS SUCH MISTRUST OF POLITICIANS,

  • SCIENTISTS, RIGHT NOW AREN'T BEING HEARD AND LISTENED TO IN

  • THE MANNER THAT I THINK THEY PROBABLY SHOULD BE.

  • WHY DO YOU THINK THIS IS?

  • AND TRUST IS A FUMENTD ISSUE IN ALL OF THIS, RIGHT?

  • >> YEAH, WITHOUT TRUST WE CAN'T DEAL WITH THERE CRISIS

  • EFFECTIVELY.

  • IN RECENT YEARS WE HAD POLL DIGS-- POLITICIANS DELIBERATELY

  • UNDERMINE THE TRUST IN PUBLIC AUTHORITIES, IN SCIENCE, IN THE

  • MEDIA.

  • AND NOW WE ARE PAYING THE PRICE OF IT YOU KNOW, IN NORMAL TIMES

  • MAYBE YOU CAN RUN A COUNTRY WHEN ONLY HALF THE POPULATION

  • TRUSTLESS THE GOVERNMENT, MAYBE.

  • BUT IN EMERGENCIES LIKE THIS, YOU NEED A HUNDRED PERSZ OF THE

  • PEOPLE TO TRUST THE GOVERNMENT AND THE AUTHORITIES.

  • IF YOU GET ADVICE FROM THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT AND HALF THE

  • POPULATION GOES AND SAYING WITH THIS PERSON HAS BB LYING TO ME

  • FOR YEARS, WHY SHOULD I BELIEVE IT NOW, IT IS GOING TO BE VERY

  • DIFFICULT TO HANDLE THE CRISIS.

  • I THINK THE GOOD SIGN THOUGH IS THAT AT LEAST WHEN IT COMES TO

  • SCIENCE AND SCIENTIFIC AUTHORITY WE SEE THAT ALMOST ALL OVER THE

  • WORLD PEOPLE HAVE A HIDDEN RESERVOIR OF DEEP TRUST IN

  • SCIENCE, DESPITE THE RECENT YEARS OF ATTACKS ON SCIENCE.

  • IN MY HOME COUNTRY OF ISRAEL, THE GOVERNMENT CLOSED DOWN THE

  • SYNAGOGUE.

  • IRAN THEY CLOSED DOWN THE MOSS PECS.

  • CHURCHES ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE TELLING PEOPLE STAY AWAY FROM

  • THE CHURCH.

  • WHY?

  • BECAUSE THE SCIENTISTS SAID SO.

  • SO EVEN THESE RELIGIOUS ESTABLISHMENTS WHEN IT COMES TO

  • A REAL EMERGENCY, THEY TRUST IN SCIENCE MORE THAN IN ANYTHING

  • ELSE.

  • AND THAT'S A GOOD SIGN.

  • I HOPE AFTER THE CRISIS IS OVER PEOPLE WILL REMEMBER WHO THEY

  • REALLY TRUSTED IN THE MOMENT OF TRUTH AND AFTERWARDS WHEN

  • SCIENTISTS WARN US ABOUT ECOLOGICAL COLLAPSE OR CLIMATE

  • CHANGE, WE TAKE IT WITH THE SAME TRUST IN THE SAME PERIOD THAT WE

  • NOW LISTEN TO THE SCIENTISTS TELLING US ABOUT IT THEN.

  • >> WHEN WE MOVE FORWARD HOW DO YOU THINK THIS TIME WILL IMPACT

  • HOW WE SOCIALLY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER GOING FORWARD, WHAT

  • DO YOU THINK THE BIG CHANGES WILL BE?

  • >> THERE COULD BE BIG CHANGES IN THE JOB MARKET, IN THE

  • UNIVERSITY.

  • SOME UNIVERSITIES MOVE ONLINE, THEN THIS WILL CREATE A

  • COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOCIAL ATMOSPHERE FOR THE STUDENTS, AND

  • WHEN I WENT TO UNIVERSITY, TO SCHOOL, THE MOST INTERESTING AND

  • IPORTANT THINGS HAPPENED IN THE BREAK.

  • ALL THE CLASSES ARE ON ZOOM, THERE ARE NO, THERE ARE NO

  • BREAKS.

  • SO SOME THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE DRAMICALLY, PROGRAMS.

  • BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS OF HUMAN NATURE WILL NOT CHANGE.

  • WE ARE SOCIAL ANIMALS.

  • WE LIKE, VERY MUCH LIKE CONTACT.

  • WHEN SOMEBODY IS SICK WE USUALLY WANT TO COME AND HELP THEM.

  • THE FP WE NOW MAKE A CHANGE OUR BEHAVIOR BUT I DON'T THINK WE

  • NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN HUMAN

  • NATURE.

  • YOU KNOW, THE BLACK DEATH DIDN'T CHANGE HUMAN NATURE.

  • 1918 INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC DIDN'T CHANGE HUMAN NATURE AND COVID-19

  • ALSO WILL NOT CHANGE HUMAN NATURE.

  • IF YOU LOOK AT THE MAYBE THE LAST BIG EP DEM NIK NOT JUST THE

  • WORLD, NOT THE U.S., THE AIDS EPIDEMIC WHICH WAS IN MANY WAYS

  • MUCH WORSE THAN WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW, NOW IF YOU GET

  • CORONAVIRUS YOU HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF LIVING.

  • IN THE EARLY 1980S, IF YOU GOT AIDS YOU DIED.

  • WITH IT WAS A DEATH SENTENCE.

  • AND COMPARED TO WHAT GOVERNMENTS ARE DOING NOW IN THE EARLY

  • 1980, BEAM WERE ABANDONED, IN MANY CASES, AND ESPECIALLY

  • POLITICIANS SAYING THIS IS PUNISHMENT FROM GOD TO GAY

  • PEOPLE.

  • IT WILL BE GOOD TO GET RID OF THEM. AND ACTUALLY, THE LGBT

  • COMMUNITY CAME OUT OF THE AIDS ETCH DEMIC MUCH STRONGER THAN IT

  • ENTERED IT.

  • PEOPLE DISCOVERED A LOT OF THINGS IN THEMSELVES.

  • THEY ESTABLISHED VOLUME TEAR ORGANIZATIONS TO HELP THE PEOPLE

  • TO SPREAD INFORMATION, TO FIGHT FOR POLITICAL RECOGNITION AND

  • ACTION.

  • AND AGAIN AIDS DID THE SAME SO COVID-19 TELEPHONE,.

  • >> James: EVEN JUST HEARING YOU SAY THAT MADE ME FEEL SO

  • MUCH BETTER.

  • BECAUSE THAT HAS BEEN THE THING THAT IS FREAKING ME OUT, THE

  • NOTION OF WHAT WILL IT BE LIKE AFTER.

  • THIS BUT YOU DO THINK THAT THERE IS SOME HOPE TO BE FOUND THE

  • OTHER SIDE OF THIS.

  • >> YEAH, IT IS GOING TO BE LONG AND DIFFICULT FOR SOME PEOPLE,

  • MORE THAN FOR OTHERS.

  • BUT YOU KNOW, HUMANKIND, WE HAVE EVERYTHING, FOR THE FIRST TIME

  • IN HISTORY, ACTUALLY.

  • WE HAVE EVERYTHING WE NEED TO OVERCOME THIS EP DIM-- EPIDEMIC.

  • ABOVE ALL A GOOD SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT CAUSELESS

  • THE DISEASE AND HOW TO PREVENT IT FROM SPREADING.

  • DURING THE BLACK DEATH, MAYBE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WAS

  • IGNORANCE.

  • PEOPLE WERE DYING IN THE MILLIONS, ALL AROUND, AND NOBODY

  • HAD ANY IDEA WHY PEOPLE WERE DYING AND WHAT COULD BE DONE

  • ABOUT IT.

  • THE MEDICAL FACULTY IN PARIS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF PARIS, THEIR

  • BEST ESTIMATE WAS THAT THIS IS SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE

  • ASTROLOGICAL POSITION OF THE SUN.

  • IT WAS THEIR BEST GUEST.

  • >> James: WOW.

  • >> MANY OTHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IT WAS PUNISHMENT FROM GOD, SO

  • WE JUST NEED TOO GO O TO CHURCH AND PRAY DISPOR GOD'S

  • FORIVENESS-- FORGIVENESS.

  • >> NOT THAT IT IS A TINY PATH O AGAIN COMING FROM FLEAS ON RATS.

  • EVEN A HUNDRED YEARS AGO DURING THE BIG 1918 INFLUENZA, DEURGT

  • EPIDEMIC ITSELF, THE BEST SCIENTISTS WERE WORKING ON IT,

  • AND NOBODY DISCOVERED WHAT WAS THE ACTUAL VIOLENCE CAUSING THE

  • EPIDEMIC.

  • NOW IT TOOK US TWO WEEKS TO IDENTIFY THE CORRECT VIRUS, AND

  • DEVELOP RELIABLE TESTS.

  • SO WE ARE REALLY IN A BETTER POSITION THAN ANY TIME BEFORE.

  • WE HAVE THE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE.

  • WHAT WE DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE IS THE POLITICAL WISDOM TO MAKE

  • USE OF OUR IMMENSE POWER.

  • MAYBE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM OF ALL IS THE LACK OF INTERNATIONAL

  • COOPERATION AND OF GLOBAL SOLIDARITY.

  • I AM NOT SO AFRAID OF THE VIRUS.

  • I AM MUCH MORE AFRAID OF THE INNER FRP HUMANITY COMING OUT,

  • PEOPLE REACTING TO THIS CRISIS, NOT WITH SOLIDARITYBUT WITH

  • HATRED OR WITH GRIEF.

  • THAT IS THE BIGGEST THING.

  • >> TELEPHONE DURING EBOLA, FOR EXAMPLE, DID THE G7 LEADERS CAME

  • TOGETHER AND IT WAS PRESIDENT OBAMA WHO WAS REALLY LEADING

  • THOSE DISCUSSIONS.

  • THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW DOESN'T SEEM

  • TOO INTERESTED IN DOING SUCH A THING.

  • WHO ARE THE OTHER WORLD LEADERS WE COULD LOOK TO FOR GUIDANCE

  • DURING THIS, AND DO YOU THINK THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL

  • HAPPEN?

  • >> WELL, TELEPHONE NOBODY IS TAKING THE GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY

  • AND THEREFORE WE DON'T HAVE A GLOBAL PLAN OF ACTION, NOT IN

  • THE FIELD OF HEALTH CARE AND CERTAINLY NOT IN THE ECONOMIC

  • FIELD.

  • MANY COUNTRIES ARE LOOKING JUST ABOUT THEIR OWN INTEREST AND

  • COMPETING WITH THE OTHER COUNTRIES FOR MEDICAL EQUIPMENT.

  • TRADITIONALLY THE U.S. WAS THE RESPONSIBLE ADULT, IN A CASE

  • LIKE THE EBOLA EPIDEMIC OR THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS, YOU STEP

  • FORWARD TO BE THE LEADER OF HUMANITY AND IN BOTH CASES

  • MANAGED TO GATHER ENOUGH COUNTRIES AROUND IT TO PREVENT

  • THE WORST OUTCOME.

  • NOW THE U.S. IS BASICALLY UNDERTAKEN THIS ROLE AS GLOBAL

  • LEADER.

  • BAIFERL SAID I DON'T WANT THIS JOB.

  • I CARE ONLY ABOUT MYSELF.

  • AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE ACTUAL RESPONSE OF THE U.S. IN ITS OWN

  • HOUSE TO THE EPIDEMIC, MAYBE ST NOT A BAD THING THAT IT IS NOT

  • RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WORLD.

  • BECAUSE IT IS DOING WORSE THAN ALMOST ANY OTHER COUNTRY.

  • NOT JUST COMPARED TO CHINA, BUT COMPARE IT TO SOUTH KOREA, TO

  • NEW ZEALAND, EVEN TO GREECE, GREECE ST DOING AN AMAZING JOB

  • IN CONTAINING THIS EPIDEMIC.

  • IF I HAD THO CHOOSE SAY BETWEEN GREECE AND THE UNITED STAITLE,

  • WHO SHOULD BE LEADING THE WORLD NOW GIVING US A PLAN OF ACTION.

  • I WOULD DEFINITELY CHOOSE GREECE.

  • >> James: WOW, THAT IS QUITE DE PRESSING.

  • NOW YOU WROTE A PIECE IN "THE FINANCIAL TIMES" WHERE YOU TALK

  • ABOUT SMARTPHONES AND GOVERNMENT USING THAT TECHNOLOGY AND A

  • GREATER THREAT OF SURVEILLANCE.

  • CAN YOU TALK TO ME ABOUT THIS AND DO YOU THINK ULTIMATELY THIS

  • IS A GOOD OR A BAD THING FOR CIVILIZATION?

  • >> IT COULD BE GOOD BUT YOU HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT IT.

  • WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW STRKS REALLY A WATERSHED IN THE

  • HISTORY OF SURVEILLANCE.

  • FIRST OF ALL WE SEE MASS SURVEILLANCE ENTERING AND BEING

  • ADOPTED IN DEM GRAT-- DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES WHICH PREVIOUSLY

  • RESISTED THEM.

  • SECONDLY WE SEE THE NATURE OF SURVEILLANCE CHANGING FROM OVER

  • THE SKIN SURVEILLANCE TO UNDER THE SKIN SURVEILLANCE.

  • OVER THE SKIN SURVEILLANCE IS SAY THE GOVERNMENT OR

  • CORPORATION WATCHING, MONITORING WHERE YOU GO, WHAT YOU BUY, WHAT

  • YOU WATCH ON TELEVISION.

  • UNDER THE SKIN SURVEILLANCE STARTS WITH MONITORING YOUR

  • BLOOD PRESSURE, BUT ULTIMATELY IT IS ABOUT WERE TAGGING YOUR

  • BODY AND BRAIN AND KNOWING WHAT YOU ARE FEELING EACH AND EVERY

  • MOAVMENT, NOT JUST PAIN OR COUGHING, BUT OUR EMOTIONS.

  • OUR BIOLOGICAL PA EXACTLY LIKE THE FLU OR LIKE HEAT, LIKE

  • TEMPERATURE.

  • SO IF YOU WILL A SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM THAT CAN TELL YOU

  • SOMEBODY, THAT CAN ALSO TELL THEM HOWL THEY FEEL EACH AND

  • EVERY MOMENT.

  • AND YOU KNOW, TEN YEARS IN THE FUTURE, FAST FORWARD, NORTH

  • KOREA, EVERY CITIZEN HAS TO WEAR A BIOMETRIC BRACELET ON THEIR

  • ARM AND YOU HAVE TO WATCH THIS BIG SPEECH BY BIG LEADERS.

  • AND WHEN YOU WATCH THE SPEECH, THEY ARE WATCHING WHAT IS

  • HAPPENING IN YOUR BODY.

  • YOU CAN SMILE AND QUU CLAP YOUR HANDS BUT IF YOU ARE ANGRY, THEY

  • KNOW.

  • YOU HAVE NO CONTROL OVER WHAT ACTUALLY IS HAPPENING IN YOUR

  • BODY.

  • SO THIS IS NO LONGER SCIENCE FICTION, THIS IS ALREADY WITHIN

  • REACH OF PRESENT DAY TECHNOLOGY AND THE CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC CAN

  • BE THE WATERSHED EVENT WHEN GOVERNMENT GOING UNDER OUR SKIN

  • BECOMES WERE ACCESSIBLE.

  • >> James, I COULD TALK TO YOU ALL DAY.

WELCOME BACK, OUR GUEST TONIGHT IS AN HISTORIAN,

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B1 中級 新型コロナウイルス 新型肺炎 COVID-19

COVID-19の人類への影響についてのユヴァル・ノア・ハラリ (Yuval Noah Harari on COVID-19's Impact on Humankind)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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