これは、トレーダー＆投資家の90％がお金を失う理由です... (This Is Why 90% Of Traders & Investors Lose Money...)

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- I don't want you to just watch and learn from me
and not take any action.
♪ The movie is, Dan Lok ♪
- Dan Lok.
- Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's right, that's right, so,
now, what are these, Shannon?
- Chips.
- Chips, now, these are different kinds of chips.
Shannon what I want you to do,
I want you to think of these chips,
hold on to these chips,
I want you to think of them as your investment capital,
okay.
Now, each chip could represent,
doesn't matter how much you have,
it could represent $10, $100,
$1000,
$10000, $100,000,
doesn't matter.
These are the chips that you have.
So these are your investment capital.
What are they?
- My investment capital.
- Investment capital.
These are your investment capital.
What are they?
- Investment capital.
- Okay, so, it's quite a bit of money.
So, how much you want each one to be?
- Any amount? - Doesn't matter.
- Let's make it 10000 each.
- 10000 each, ooh!
A lot of money here, right?
All right, so how much would you say we have here, around--
- 10, I'm going to guess, maybe 240000, something like that.
- Yeah, 200 and somewhat K, right?
Pretty sizable investment, right?
Okay, so Shannon, we are going to play the game.
I'm going to, we'll play the game.
So here is a deck of cards.
What is this?
- Deck of cards.
- What is this?
- Deck of cards.
- This represents the market.
What does it represent?
- Market.
- The market.
So, Shannon I'm going to let you win some money,
see if you can multiply the investment capital.
That's what we-- - I'm already ready to invest.
I already know what my first case is--
- Okay, that's good.
- That's going to you. - Okay, okay, okay.
Now, there are a couple rules.
So Shannon, listen closely.
- Okay.
- You can invest one chip at a time.
You can invest two chips at a time.
Or all the chips, it's up to you.
There's no limit, okay.
Also, just like, how many have seen the show,
"Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?"
How many have seen that show before?
Right, you can also ask for friends,
you can also ask your friend.
Right here, here, right?
You can ask your friend here, Eva, right?
- I just met Eva, I think we're going to be good friends.
- That's right, you can ask them for their advice.
Because this is normal sometimes when we invest,
that we ask our friends like,
"What do you think of this investment,
"I'm going to buy this piece of property,
"what do you think?"
Yes, so you could do that, you can ask anybody.
- Okay. - Okay.
So here's how it's going to work.
This is a deck of cards.
Now a deck of cards, we have how many cards?
52.
Now, what kind we have?
Ace, we have two, we have what?
Three.
- Hearts.
- Yes, hearts.
So this how it's going to work,
in a moment you going to pick a number of these cards.
Each time is one bet.
It's one investment, right?
You can bet on how many chips you want each time.
If we draw,
from one to 10,
you lose your investment capital.
- Oh man!
- Any one from one to 10.
- Who's, I'm the one drawing the cards?
- That's right, okay.
- I'm basically going through this question.
- Okay, now here's the thing,
if you draw a Jack.
- Yeah.
- You're going to double your money.
- Oh man, I love Jacks.
- Okay, if you draw a Queen, you're going to triple your money.
- What about a King?
- You're going to four times your money.
- Yes!
- Okay, so one to 10,
how much money?
- Zero.
- How much money?
- Zero.
- Okay, if it's a Jack, how much money?
- Double.
- Double, ooh!
Who likes to double their money?
Right.
If it's a Queen,
triple.
Oh, but if it's a King, all right, all right, all right.
Now you guys want to chip in right, you guys are like,
"Hey, let me join this, ooh, this exciting,
"this is Vegas time."
All right, so let's shuffle the cards,
let's shuffle the cards,
just to be fair, shuffle the cards.
- Now I am with the King of High Ticket.
- The King of High Ticket.
- I want to pull it-- - All right, all right.
So here we go.
So here you go.
So, the first bet, how much do you want to bet Shannon?
- And I don't know what I'm betting for?
I like the number three.
- Number three, all right, so three chips, three chips,
so it's $30000 right?
Represents 30000, ooh!
I'm sweating too .
I'm not though, I'm the house, but I'm kind of excited.
But I am not the house,
I'm simply the--
- What?
- Market. - The market.
I'm simply the market.
So, let's draw the first card.
Okay.
All right.
Shannon, any one of these?
Let's do it slowly.
- I know, I'm-- - Let's build up some,
some excitement, yes. - My heart's pounding.
- Yes. - I'm very excited.
- How many of you get nervous, when you invest?
Your heart is pounding, right?
Even though this is not real money.
Notice the emotions you're going through, right.
All right, here you go, pick any one of these.
- All right.
- Okay, first one.
And you sure about this one?
- Yes.
- You sure about this one, do you need to ask any friends?
- No, 'cause it's going to create doubt, just show me.
- Doubts, okay, first one, okay.
First one, and we want Shannon to win, yes.
- We do, right?
- Okay. - Yes.
- So let's reveal that slowly.
- Oh my God. - Right there,
the first card please.
What is it?
And then yell it out loud, what the card is, okay.
- Ah shit!
It's a five.
- It is a--
- Five.
- It is a five, it is a five, it is a five.
All right, 30000. - Ah, I feel painful.
- Let me put it back in pocket.
- How many, I get three trials?
- As many trials as you want,
next one.
How much you want to bet?
Do you want to double down?
I don't know.
Because isn't it the Vegas rule,
you lose the first bet, you kind of double down.
Is it what it is?
- Let's do three again.
- Do three again, all right, three again, how many?
- Three again. - Three again, here we go.
All right, and pick any of these cards.
I think, you know, we need an idea,
you blow it, right, is that what it is?
Like, let's blow it together.
- Okay. - Okay, one, two and--
Okay, here we go!
- A 10!
- A 10, oh, getting close,
getting close. - Okay, all right.
Getting close, five, 10, next one maybe a J, okay.
- So trust has been, you still get my card, my money?
- That's right, one to 10, you lose your investment capital.
- Just when trust was being re-established.
- No, but you know how it is like,
when you lose three, four times in a row.
You're sure the next one is, oh the 10 is,
you're feeling it.
- Yeah.
- This is, now you lost this much already.
- Okay but, when I win the Queen, do I get all that back?
- No.
- You said four times.
- No, it's four times what you bet.
- Oh man, I got excited. - Four times what you bet.
Yes.
- Yeah, I'm ready to like
bet, okay. - You ready?
Well now, so you lost quite a bit.
If you want to get that back,
you got to kind of bet--
- Yeah but I still got, I'm good, I'm good.
- Okay, okay, all right, all right, all right.
- I have a strategy now.
- Okay. - Not take more losses--
- Got a strategy.
She's got a what?
- Strategy. - Strategy.
Okay, here we go.
You ready?
All right, here we go.
How much?
- This is going to happen all day.
- All right, all right,
one. - I bet this, now I'm going to--
- Now, if you bet one, if this turns out to be a King,
you would be-- - I'll take that chance.
- You'll take that chance.
- Yeah, cause I'm-- - So, one.
- Re-establishing my self trust here.
- One, okay.
You're sure. - That's deep going on.
Yeah, you don't want to ask your friend anything like that?
- Friend, you're a good investor,
I saw your hand raised up, what do you think?
- More. - More or.
- Three. - Three, really.
- Three.
- Friend I'm going to trust you.
- What about this friend?
What do you think?
Three. - I'm going to go three,
because that's already stretching me.
- Three.
Three.
Three, what do you guys think?
- My chest is starting to get tight.
- Oh, it's not your money,
so you guys are like, "Who gives a fuck?"
You know, it's like buying a stock,
oh I don't give a shit, right.
All right, here we go.
Three, $30000.
Here we go.
I think, I have a good feeling about this one.
- Do you. - I have a good feeling,
about this one. - Okay, okay.
- At least got to get J or Q or something like that.
- No it's not a winner.
- Ah, it's a two.
Okay, now we can do this all, let's, one last chance.
One last-- - But I still got a lot
of money.
- Last chance.
- That means I got to bet all my money.
- Maybe.
Maybe last chance.
If you want to,
now, so far, you're like, maybe compared to that start,
you've lost, maybe 40% of the investment capital.
30, 40%.
So Shannon started off with 100% investment capital,
in a few,
four investments, we've done.
- Yeah.
- We've lost 30, 40%.
Is this the real world?
Hello.
- Yes. - Yep.
- Could you make a trade,
could you make an investment and lose 40% of your money?
Relatively quickly,
sometimes 100% of your money.
So now, this is her chance.
This is her life savings here, right?
Almost 200 somewhat thousand dollars,
this is the last bet, right.
- Feeling your pain--
- So she needs to draw a pretty good card.
- Yeah.
- Just to get back to,
break even.
Right, get back to zero,
not even a return.
So Shannon, what are you going to do?
- I'm going to, let's play the millionaire game,
I'm going to phone a friend.
- Phone a friend, phone a friend--
- No, I'm going to take a poll from the audience.
- Take a poll, yes, yes.
- Who thinks I should just bet it all?
Raise your hand.
Bet it all.
- Bet it all, bet it all, bet it all,
bet it all, bet it all.
So Shannon, in the beginning, in the beginning,
why do we want to invest?
- To make a profit.
- To make a profit, get a return.
So now we're at 30, 40% lost,
this is the last chance you're going to bet.
So even though, let's say, we draw a Jack,
you kind of get back, depends on how much you invest,
you might get back most of the money,
not maybe, not even up ahead.
But if it's a Queen,
then you're in pretty good shape.
Right, then maybe you say,
"Hey, you know what I'll draw a Queen,
"that's it, I'm not going to bet anymore."
Right, forget about, if you're King, then it's like,
"I'm going on vacation."
So Shannon, how much you're betting?
- I'm betting this.
- Everything, how many of these do we have?
- Okay, let's see.
- So it's one, let's count them.
- 10, 20,
30, 40, 50,
60, 70, 80000 is what I have.
- $80000
of investment too, so it's got 20000 left.
Okay. - I can multiply that one,
I know it.
- Emergency fund, get home fund.
- I need a massage, 'cause I'm--
- It's the stress from losing the money.
- I need to see a therapist.
- Probably someone that goes to alcohol, I don't know.
Right, you know why we have so many bars in Vegas?
You win money you celebrate, you have one drink.
You lose money, you're depressed, you get two drinks.
They make money either way.
They make money either way.
This is why, all right.
That's called business.
What's it called?
- Business. - Business, all right.
So Shannon, you ready?
Okay, here we go.
Okay, ooh I feel nervous.
- I know me too, my heart's like.
- I feel nervous.
So far, who is winning within the game?
- The market.
- The market is winning.
Do the market win most of the time?
Hello.
- Yes.
- Why do the markets win most of the time?
- She's losing, someone else is winning.
- She's losing, so it's a zero sum game.
So in the marketplace someone wins
and someone loses, is that how it works?
- Yeah, yeah.
- Is that how it works?
- I'm not sure.
- Hmm.
Would that be an interesting question to
explore these two days?
Okay, so the market is closed now.
So please open a card Shannon,
one, two,
and three.
- Well, here's the good news.
I do like the number seven, it's just not for me.
- Number seven.
What's the number?
- Seven. - Oh, look at that.
- Number seven.
So, Shannon, how much we started off with?
- 240.
- 240.
- We got 20 left.
- We got 20 left.
So we basically, within a matter of 10, 12 minutes,
we've lost 200 somewhat thousand dollars.
Hmm.
That kind of sucks, hey?
- Oh yeah.
- How do you feel Shannon?
- Terrible.
- Terrible, but you were pretty excited
a few moments ago. - Actually terrible, pissed.
- Pissed right? - Yeah.
Is that normal?
- Yes.
- Do most investors make money or lose money?
- Lose money.
- Most of them lose money.
So, Shannon bet multiple times,
different amount,
right?
Multiple amount, but she lost the money.
Shiny card, exciting.
Oh!
Like in Asian culture belief,
like gold, it's fortune right?
It's good luck, it's prosperity.
Not so good so far.
But what if, Shannon, if this is the market,
I'm the messenger for the market.
If the market wins most of the time,
and she bets
and based on trust on the market,
not on me, because I'm just neutral,
I'm just the messenger right?
On the market, now did I tell you how much to bet?
- No.
- No, it's your decision.
Multiple times right?
But what if, Shannon, I gave you one piece of information,
just one small piece of information, okay,
that all the Jack, Queen and King.
- Were in your pocket.
- Were in my pockets the whole time.
Oh, but Dan that's cheating.
Hm.
Not that much different, when a stock broker tells you,
"Hey, the stock is going to go up."
Not that much different, when a real estate agent tells you,
"This is a good piece of property,
"it's going to appreciate, it's in a good location."
Not much different, when your friend tells you,
"Hey, invest in my thing it's going to make money,
"I promise you, we've known each other for 10 years."
Is that much different?
So, is it my job, or is it Shannon's job
to investigate before you invest?
Did I say,
"Shannon you cannot check my card?"
Would it be a simple idea,
"Hey, I just want to check the card."
Maybe after two bets,
"I want to check the card."
Just to see how it goes.
Maybe there's something wrong with it.
Because the two fives, would you say,
"I get a little bit suspicious.
"The two fives, what's going on?"
Right?
Maybe I look at a card, it's a little,
the card seems a little thin.
It doesn't look like a 52 cards.
Right?
Maybe gut instinct tells you,
it so looks a little thin, maybe,
but just like a stockbroker tells you,
"Just trust me on this,
"it's okay, oh yeah, the market dip a little bit.
"Don't worry about it, it's going to bounce back."
How many heard that before?
It's going to bounce back, two years later,
well it's going to bounce back.
That's how most people approach investing.
They think it's a word of luck,
a game of luck, a game of gambling,
versus, now Shannon, if you would have done that,
let's say, the third bet,
and you say, "Dan I'm going to check the cards."
And you check the cards, you say, "What the fuck?
"I didn't see no Jack, I see no Queen, I see no King."
Would you still continue to bet?
- No.
- No, absolutely not.
Doesn't matter what I say,
oh, it's going to be,
no, it doesn't matter what I say, something is missing.
Yes.
You know you're not going to win.
Write this down, lesson, the morning,
investigate before you invest.
Don't listen to your stockbroker.
Don't listen to nobody, including me.
Because no one cares your money more than you do.
Yes.
- Yes.
- No one cares your money more than you do.
Do, this called due diligence,
just simply check the cards.
So from now on any investment.
- Yeah.
- You're going to--
- Ask.
- And you're going to do--
- Due diligence.
- Due diligence, investigate, right?
This is a good reminder.
Round of applause for Shannon.
- Thank you.
- Very, very good.
Very, very good.