A LancetpaperfromJanuarythatlookedat 99 patientswiththecovert 19 Coronavirusfoundthatit's morelikelytoaffectoldermenwithexistingillnesses.
Offthe 99 inthestudy, themajorityweremen.
Themeanagewas 55.5 on.
Morethanhalfalreadyhadchronicdiseases.
Thefactthatitmaydisproportionatelyaffectoldermenis a similarpatterntoSARSthatsomescientistsbelievethattherecouldbe a malevulnerabilitytoCoronavirusesregardingthedeathrate.
ThemostrecentestimatesfromImperialCollegeLondon, suggestthat 1% ofpeoplewithCoronavirusdon I fromtheirinfection.
Doyouthinkthattheinfectionrateof 60% offthepopulation, whichhasbeensuggestedbysomeofyourcolleagues, isrealisticforBritain, potentiallygivenwhenweknow a lotabouthowthesortofvirusesspread?
Wehavelotsofdatafrompastepidemics.
GivenhowtransmissiblethisValorousappearstobe, andthefactthatatleastalladultscouldbeinfected, wehavemuchlessdataandChildrenwhen 60% is a reasonablefigureforfortheepidemicsizewithinthe 1st 12 monthsorso.
However, thatclaimwasdisputedbythe W.
H.
O, whosaidthatthatwouldonlybethecaseifnothingwasbeingdonetocontainthespread.
Norovirushasbeen a problembefore, andit's difficulttosaywhymorecasesarecomingupdespitethequarantine.
I thinkthatprobablyneedstobeaninvestigationonceeveryone's offtheship, Thioidentifywhathappened.
Didquarantinemeasuresfail?
Sowherewasitnotbeingimplementedproperly?
Wastheresomekindofenvironmentalsourceontheshipthatweneedtoknowaboutthathelpedinthetransmission, oristhisreallyjustthatActually, a lotofpeoplewereexposed a lotearlierthanwethoughtbeforequarantinestartedon.
They'rejustshowingsymptomsover a gradualperiodoftime.
A lotofitcomesdowntohowgoodcountriesareattracingpeoplewhoarecomingintocontactwiththevirusonmakingsuretheyaretestedandthendealingwiththemafterwardsiftheyhavethevirus.