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  • Right before Thanksgiving, Jay Powell

  • talked to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce

  • in Rhode Island.

  • Earlier this year, he would say things were...

  • In a good place.

  • But in Providence, he said things were...

  • Generally good.

  • The benefits of the long expansion

  • are now, only now, reaching many communities.

  • And there's plenty of room to build on the impressive gains

  • achieved so far.

  • You hear that?

  • Generally good.

  • That means things could be even better, and also, by the way,

  • we could use a little help.

  • For example, more than a decade of steady advances

  • has pushed the jobless rate near a 50-year low, where it has

  • remained for well over a year.

  • He's right.

  • The Fed has a mandate for full employment.

  • It could stop there, job done, nice work, but...

  • What?

  • The wealth of middle-income families,

  • that is their savings, home equity, and other assets,

  • has only recently surpassed levels

  • seen before the Great Recession.

  • And the wealth of people with lower incomes, while growing,

  • has yet to fully recover.

  • So the Fed has shifted its focus slightly.

  • The last several years have been great for getting people

  • in prime age back into the labour force.

  • Prime age is 25 to 54.

  • If you're 55 and you still feel prime, I apologise,

  • that is just how the Labour Department defines it.

  • Anyway, this doesn't show up in the top line unemployment rate,

  • but it's really good news.

  • More people working creates more economic growth.

  • For several decades, up until the mid-1990s,

  • the share of prime age people in the Labour force rose

  • as an influx of women more than offset some decline in male

  • participation.

  • In the mid-1990s, however, prime age participation

  • began to fall.

  • Fortunately, in the strong job market since 2014,

  • prime age participation has been staging a comeback.

  • But prime age participation could be still higher.

  • Who is it?

  • And right here, Jay Powell shows a little bit of what,

  • by the unique standards of Fed communications,

  • you could call attitude.

  • The research literature suggests a variety of policies,

  • beyond the scope of monetary policy,

  • that could spur further progress by better preparing people

  • to meet the challenges of technological innovation

  • and global competition, and by supporting and rewarding Labour

  • force participation.

  • Of course, the task of evaluating the costs

  • and benefits of these policies falls

  • to our elected representatives.

  • Did you catch that?

  • We are working, but we're on our own out here.

  • You can increase Labour force participation by paying

  • for training, by making it easier to go to school,

  • by helping out with childcare or public transportation,

  • but these things cost money and the Fed doesn't spend money

  • on policy.

  • That's not the Fed's job.

  • So he didn't say it outright, but the message

  • from Jay Powell in Providence is that, perhaps, Congress,

  • you should consider showing up and helping out.

Right before Thanksgiving, Jay Powell

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Fedジェイ・パウエルの演説の行間を読む方法|FT (How to read between the lines of Fed Jay Powell's speeches | FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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