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  • Hey, guys, welcome back in today's video.

  • Gonna be doing another discussion and analysis of a couple of poles that have come out within the past few days that are focused on that 2020 Democratic presidential primary going to start off with Monmouth.

  • It's the first new numbers that we've gotten from them with thes particular questions since back in January.

  • So some interesting updates there and then gonna move on to the weekly morning consul pull not much in the way of change over with that one.

  • But starting off here with Monmouth and you can see the March numbers compared to the January numbers and the only major difference here.

  • It comes with Bernie Sanders.

  • He came out and announced he's gone around and campaigned, and that's had a huge positive impact on his numbers over.

  • Also, Biden still in first at 28% points, Bernie within the margin of air at 25% points.

  • You can see the difference between these numbers and where they were in January, where buying was at 29 compared to Sanders, who was just at 16.

  • So a nine point gain for Bernie overall, and then you take a look at the rest of the field.

  • Not much of a difference there.

  • With Camilla Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker in Club HR at 10 865 and 3% points, respectively, All the other candidates at 2% points or less.

  • Michael Bloomberg has come out and announce that he's not gonna be running, so he won't be in this questionnaire next time around Bernie again, the big gainer here, the fact that he's come out and announced, has had a huge positive impact on his numbers.

  • Overall, it will be interesting to see what kind of impact Biden's numbers has if he comes out and decides that he is gonna be running.

  • If he's able to maintain the kind of leads that we've seen from him that are relatively around the margin of error, or if he can gain from that and try to take some support from these other candidates will see how that all plays out.

  • But then moving down.

  • I'm really glad they asked this second question, particularly of the Joe Biden supporters.

  • If he didn't run, who would their next choice be?

  • So when you take a bite and out of the equation.

  • It becomes very clear that Sanders is the front runner all by himself over doubling the support of the second place candidate.

  • So Sanders and first at 32% points, 17 points up on Camilla Harris, who would then have 15% points of support.

  • Warren at 10 O'Rourke at seven, Booker at six.

  • Kovach are at three, and then everyone else at 2% points or less.

  • So now, going down and taking a look at favorability.

  • Actually, a little bit of change here for the top two candidates, which I want to focus on in this one and then just kind of do a general sense of the rest of the candidates is starting off here with Joe Biden down slightly from where he was back in January.

  • So he's not 76 favorable compared to where he was at 80 13% unfavorable compared to the nine unfavorable that he had in the prior pole.

  • And then we take a look at Bernie.

  • His numbers have actually gotten a little bit better in this sense, with favorability at 70 points, but still a little bit worse overall than Biden.

  • But again within the realm of being competitive with those bite and numbers up for Bernie Sanders, in particular from 68 points prior.

  • And then his unfavorability is at 17 compared to 19 where it was.

  • And then all of the other candidates.

  • You can see quite a difference between them in the top two in terms of people either don't have an opinion or have never heard of these other candidates.

  • So they have a lot of work to do to get their name out there, present their platform so that more voters conforming a painting about them.

  • But what makes that so difficult for these candidates is when you have so many people running, it's just tough to get the type of, uh, space needed within the media exposure to go out and improve on those numbers.

  • And then another interesting question here that is worth noting.

  • They ask the people in this poll back in 2016 who did you support for the Democratic nomination Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?

  • And you could see Clinton at 61 compared to Bernie at 34.

  • This means that in this particular pole, there's a much larger sample of your Maur centrist establishment type Democrats.

  • So when you take that in mind, the fact that Bernie is on Lee within 3% points of biting, I think, is a really positive sign for him.

  • Because back in that 2016 primary, Bernie had much higher than 34% of the support and vote.

  • So his voters getting a little bit underscored in this monument.

  • Polish, I think, is a great sign for him overall, in terms of where he could be if it was, ah, better representation of the voting base.

  • That was back in 2016 compared to what we're getting here in 2020.

  • So that's all I wanted to touch on.

  • With the Monmouth Poll moving on to the morning console to and not big changes from where we covered this last week, Biden and Sanders still one in two at 31% points in 27% points, respectively.

  • No change from last week and then comma Harris at 10% points.

  • Warren in a work at seven, Booker at four Club HR at three, and then all the other candidates are at 1% point or less.

  • We take a look at the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

  • And again, not big changes here.

  • Biting down 1.2 33.

  • Camilla hairs up 1.29 Elizabeth Warren up 1.27 But all within the margin of error.

  • So you're going to see these small fluctuations every now and then.

  • The fact that we haven't really had much in the way of big announcements or game changing situations, no debates or anything like that.

  • Not a huge surprise to see the numbers stay relatively even from where they were a week prior.

  • So that's gonna wrap up this video, Guys, thanks for stopping on in.

  • Consider subscribing for more of this type of content in the future, and I hope to see you back here for my next video.

Hey, guys, welcome back in today's video.


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バーニー・サンダース大利得 モンマス民主党第一次全国世論調査 2019年3月 (Bernie Sanders Huge Gain Monmouth Democratic Primary National Poll March 2019)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日